Election Prediction Project

Windsor West
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:04:47

Constituency Profile


Giancola, Matthew

Masse, Brian

Orlando, Anthony

Pupatello, Sandra

Villamizar, Margaret


Brian Masse

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



77.78 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Brian Masse ** 2080040.00%
Sandra Pupatello 1887836.30%
Henry Lau 992519.10%
Quinn Hunt 13252.50%
Darryl Burrell 9581.80%
Margaret Villamizar 760.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brian Masse ** 2408551.30%
Dave Sundin 1184225.20%
Henry Lau 973420.80%
Cora LaRussa 10832.30%
Margaret Villamizar 1610.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1530.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Windsor West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lisa Gretzky * 2027652.12%
Adam Ibrahim 1107328.47%
Rino Bortolin 572214.71%
Krysta Glovasky-Ridsdale 13933.58%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8912.45%

17/09/21 C B
To add to my previous NDP prediction, and respond to the previous poster regarding the Conservative candidate, I am betting that the Conservative candidate will actually finish in 4th place here.
17/09/21 Jake H.
The Liberals will make this closer than many expect, but this is a safe NDP hold. They'll win by more than they did in 2019, with the same candidates facing off again and Trudeau/the Liberals losing votes nationally, and particularly in SW Ontario and Windsor. The new Conservative candidate is not making inroads as of yet, so likely will not be much of a factor on election day.
16/09/21 Lolitha
Adding my voice to the NDP call here. The NDP are up a bit from their Ontario polls last election, Liberals down a bit. Additionally Campaign research poll of Sept 9 has NDP ahead of the Liberals in SW Ontario.
13/09/21 Thomas K
Why is this still ‘Too Close to Call’ huh? Says something about this website...
Windsor West will not vote for a party as overtly hostile to the working class as the Liberals have been in their past 6 years of office. Pupatello's offensive gaffes and failure to offer a proper apology also makes me certain she will lose ground relative to her 2019 performance.
10/09/21 C B
Alright, we are close enough now, voting has commenced, and I’m pretty confident in making this my final prediction. This is my riding. Pupatello does not have the support she did last time, as the anti-Trudeau sentiment has done nothing but multiply in the community. Masse will win. He likely was holding his breath last time, but I’m pretty confident it won’t be as close.
10/09/21 PY
I'm not sure about Brian Masse's chances as COVID has upended things in general. The temptation to seek certainty in these uncertain times and elect a potential cabinet minister couldn't be greater. I believe the animosity towards the the McGuinty regime (and to a lesser extent, Wynne's) might have hampered Sandra Pupatello's chances two years ago, though it's since been neutralized in the form of regret and/or buyer's remorse regarding the current provincial government under Doug Ford.
Strangely enough, I did my undergrad at Odette and left Windsor the very year Dr. Bear arrived in town. Now granted, I don't visit the city that often, but I'm still in touch with a few of the friends that I made off-campus as a patron of a local goth scene which was on the wane at the time. Alas, that's not the case with COVID at the moment, especially as Windsor Regional Hospital has now opened a new pediatric clinic in order to prepare for a further increase in cases and testing amongst children.
I'm certain COVID will at least be an X-factor (if not a determining one) here and in countless other ridings throughout the country, though the lack of a Green candidate will also make things interesting. All in all, TCTC.
06/09/21 Nick M.
LPC morale is low. LPC is not focussing its resources at this stage of gaining seats in Ontario, but to hold on to what it has.
LPC needs a good ground game in this riding, hard to have that when morale is low, and the opponents are the incumbents.
03/09/21 J.F. Breton
Il ne fait pas de doute dans mon esprit que Brian Masse conservera sa circonscription. Il est bien implanté dans sa circonscription de tradition néo-démocrate. Si son adversaire libérale n'a pu le déloger en 2019, il serait fortement surprenant qu'elle réussisse en 2021, alors que les sondages nationaux sont meilleurs en Ontario pour le NPD.
03/09/21 Predictions
NDP will hold this one. Pupatello is no more a star candidate in 2021 than she was in 2019, but the NDP is much stronger this time around and the LPC weaker. Without Pupatello running for the Libs, Masse would win this one with his eyes closed. Pupatello will make it somewhat competitive, but there's no reason for Windsorites to turn their backs on the NDP this time around.
02/09/21 Sam
Contrary to the belief that Jagmeet would turn the people of Windsor against him by being 'too woke', there hasn't been any indication the NDP are in trouble here - this is not as similar a riding to Windsor-Tecumseh or Essex is people might think anyway. And Masse, despite losing some ground last time had a creditable performance in the circumstances against a good Liberal candidate. She may not be a huge magnet for votes but she is a good candidate, even if any magnetism she has is sure to dwindle. Anyway, an NDP win for me here.
27/08/21 Ontario Voter
If the Liberals could not win this seat last time given the state of the NDP, they are not going to win this time. Pupatello has not held elected office in over a decade. Whatever appeal she may have had during that time is limited now. The Liberals are probably going to invest more energy into holding their other Windsor seat rather than targeting this one.
23/08/21 Hammer
If not 2015 or 2019 then when? 2019 was the bottoming out of the NDP, those who won did on their own strength not party strength. Now that the party and Singh are doing better poll wise, Masse and other NDP incumbents are safe bets. Those who comment that the NDP are too woke for Windsor (or Oshawa and Hamilton) need to understand that labour and woke are not mutually exclusive concepts. The working classes include the marginalized. The Liberals are woke politics without results and intentions -- why vote Liberal when you already have the real thing in Masse and other NDP incumbents.
21/08/21 Jon Jenkins
Liberals put a huge effort into Windsor West in 2019 with high-level visits and a local star candidate. They pulled close in the polls early when the federal NDP was weak, but Masse went on to win.
Though Pupatello pulled fairly close last time, both Masse personally and the NDP are doing well, and he is likely to win reelection.
19/08/21 prognosticator15
My 2019 comments on limited Pupatello appeal still stand, she isn't a value to Libs as is often assumed, though perhaps not a liability either, just your average Lib. Justin might have made it close with his visit after all, but it will not help today. With anger at unneeded election and the Libs not having appeal in this corner of Southwestern Ontario the way they appeal in Toronto or Montreal, the always present tendency to vote against the 'elites' might be stronger this time around in this area, and guess who the elites are. In this non-Cons area, as in Tecumseh where Cons are hapless vote splitters, some Con votes may even leak to the woke NDP - and not to the woke Libs - to prevent Liberal majority, just as some NDP will leak to Cons in a more Cons-friendly area like Essex and Chatham-Kent (even where NDP is second). My expectation today is two NDP seats in Windsor and Cons reelection in the other two. It will not play like this everywhere, but in this area it is more about Lib elite vs. challengers than about ideology, and about many in NDP for whom Libs are not the second choice in this area. And yes, NDP residual and Masse personality-based appeal matter, though Libs only have an outperforming Irek to lose in Tecumseh, it will not make much difference for them.
17/08/21 C B
And 316, from someone who lives here, I’ve met Sandra Pupatello personally. She has knocked on my door in a previous campaign. She was charming and likeable and has a reputation for such around here. Her personality and past achievements in Provincial government make her a formidable opponent for Brian Masse. Don’t underestimate her. This is coming from someone who did not support her for what it is worth.
17/08/21 C B
I’m leaving this one blank right now. It’s too early. I will say that I always read Dr. Bear’s comments with respect. We may not always agree, but their opinions are always well thought out and are logical. They also have a good thumb on the area, having lived here. There is absolutely merit to your observations, Dr. Bear, regarding the NDP. This isn’t the same NDP from 25 years ago, and Windsor has changed a great deal in that time as well. There has been considerable immigration, even since the last election. The Conservatives are polling better here than 25 years ago as well, when they could barely muster 5,000 votes. There seems to be a solid CON foundation here now that consistently gives them around 10,000; more in strong years. I don’t see CONS going Liberal. Sandra Pupatello is most definitely a respected name and face in the area. That is how she got so close last time. Not because of Trudeau, in spite of him. From on the street, he is not respected or well-liked in the area. Indeed, the result next door was surprising. So who knows? The NDP could be on the downswing in the area. I suspect this is the case. If so, perhaps Pupatello is plausible. Reassess in a couple of weeks once the campaign is off the ground.
16/08/21 jeff316
Don't let the ‘name’ fool you. That's not the key here. (The Pupatello brand never had broad appeal - she doesn't make you feel all that warm and fuzzy - but that's not the point.)
The Liberals need just enough Conservative voters to put Pupatello over the top. Can you see the Conservatives in their current form bleeding 4 or 5 or 6 percent from their previous result in this riding? I sure can.
Where will that vote go? Largely to the Liberals. Add in a sprinkle of previous Masse voters happy with the CERB and such, and this could flip.
12/08/21 Dr Beat
I lived here from 2003 to 2007. Still got lots of friends here and visit regularly. Back in the day I would say it’s a lock for Masse but now it certainly is not. While many working class folk used to vote for, and are used to voting for, the NDP, the NDP has been morphing into a party that is less about unionized labour and more about woke identity politics. Not something that goes over very well in suffering industrial cities. I see the same thing now in my current riding (Hamilton Centre) where long time NDP supporters vote for them by default because no one else really speaks to them. O’Toole has been trying to pull a Boris and win over blue collar voters, however he has not done so yet (I still think he could and that will be a new ballgame!). Until then it’s going to be NDP residual vs Liberal possibility. With a well known Liberal name, along with a solid ground game and a likely cabinet post, Sandra will make this a very close race. Though if I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Masse. Long time incumbents are hard to unseat. However I did say the same about Megan Leslie, Paul Dewer, Pat Martin and Jack Harris.
11/08/21 KXS
Sandra Pupatello hasn't been an elected representative in a decade. Her last successful election campaign was in 2007.
If she wasn't able to pull it off in 2019, I don't think she can win this time around.
04/08/21 Thomas K
Claiming a Liberal victory here based on ‘delivering funds’ in a neighbouring riding seems more like wishful Liberal partisan drivel then an actual prediction. If any special funding is delivered to a riding, it is most likely because of the governing party's larger interest in winning it in the upcoming election than some magical effort from the sitting MP.
Windsor West is a working class community with strong traditional support for the NDP. Liberals are very, very ideologically distinct from the NDP, and the constituents here know that well. There was a lot of unhappiness that came from the Liberals' USMCA negotiations here. The economy will be an even bigger campaign issue this time around, and in Windsor West, that bodes well for the NDP, which will win this by a larger margin than last time.
30/07/21 Cory
This might be one of the more hotly-contested ridings in Southern Ontario, with Pupatello announcing she would be running again.
In this re-match, I think the Liberals will squeak out a win here. Having a Liberal incumbent in the neighboring riding will help this time out.
30/07/21 Mr. Dude
I don't quite understand making predictions based on 338 as it's an aggregator that isn't specific to the local candidates.
Let's face it, Irek delivered funds next door big time and that's been made quite visibly. You can still have a left-wing representative, but who will undoubtedly become a cabinet minister and who will bring home the money in Sandra.
This riding is one of the tougher ones economically and the investments made will be more meaningfully felt here versus the suburbs.
Masse is well liked but clearly isn't adding the kind of value that Sandra could. I'll give Masse credit for recognizing that the Single Sports Betting bill needed to have tri-partisan support and he found it. But a representative in government wouldn't have had that hurdle.
26/07/21 ME
Masse has a 19 point lead according to local polls and 338 has declared the riding a safe NDP seat
26/07/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Seems Brian Masse can't catch a break here. With Pupatello running again it will likely be very close, but I think Masse will still hold on like in 2019.
24/07/21 Chris N
Former Ontario cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello is running again for the Liberals, as per the Windsor Star. The 2019 race was very high profile, with many predicting that Pupatello would end Masse’s two decade reign in Windsor West. I think Masse and the NDP have the advantage for round two, but expect the Liberals to throw a lot of resources into the riding to try and flip it.
06/06/21 Chris N
Many predicted the Liberals to win this in 2019 after they nominated high profile candidate and former Ontario cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello. Masse was able to hold on, likely due more to his local popularity than the party's popularity. Unless the Liberals nominate Pupatello or another high profile candidate, I think Windsor West will stay safely orange.
26/05/21 ME
Local polls give Brian Masse a 10 point lead and 338 says it is LIKELY NDP
08/08/21 A.S.
Pupatello would much likelier have it in the bag had Masse (currently the senior NDP MP in Parliament) chosen to retire. But because it's a rematch, she'd really be hoping for a 1974-style Dipper-humbling broad outcome. (And actually, Windsor West has the *less* ‘working class’ electoral history than Windsor-Tecumseh--after all, Herb Gray commanded it for decades before Masse, and South Windsor is the kind of affluent 'burbia that'd ordinarily be Dipper-hostile. Masse's a ‘grand coalition’ NDPer, more than the union-stalwart sort.)

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