Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:04:50

Constituency Profile


Borrelli, Kathy

Chesnik, Laura

Green, Victor

Hardcastle, Cheryl

Kusmierczyk, Irek

Oulevey, Henry


Irek Kusmierczyk

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



163.24 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Irek Kusmierczyk 1904633.40%
Cheryl Hardcastle ** 1841732.30%
Leo Demarce 1585127.80%
Giovanni Abati 21773.80%
Dan Burr 12792.20%
Laura Chesnik 1870.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Cheryl Hardcastle 2321543.50%
Jo-Anne Gignac 1465627.50%
Frank Schiller 1417726.60%
David Momotiuk 10472.00%
Laura Chesnik 2490.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2420.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Percy Hatfield * 2522158.4%
Mohammad Latif 1167727.04%
Remy Boulbol 35138.14%
Henry Oulevey 19094.42%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6821.86%

19/09/21 Physastr Master
I'm not convinced of this prediction. This is enough of a left-populist riding that last election's result can only be seen as a direct refutation of Hardcastle, otherwise I can't see this riding ever voting Liberal. Without her this probably would have gone NDP with the people's frustration being successfully vented and the NDP's popularity being restored, but bringing back Hardcastle is a bit of an inexplicable middle finger raised to New Democrats that voted Liberal to protest Hardcastle... it's close enough I won't supplement this comment with a prediction, but I think that in a scenario where the NDP picks up a dozen seats there's no guarantee this would be one of them, which is decidedly at odds with the relatively early call here. I actually think Essex is the more likely Windsor-area flip.
19/09/21 Dr Bear
Do not underestimate Irek’s personal popularity! I have many friends in Windsor who like the local candidate but are ‘meh!’ about Trudeau. Yes, this is anecdotal, but I don’t think this seat will flip back so easily.
19/09/21 Baker Boy
I am a Windsorite and have been keeping a close watch on this riding. It was well represent for many years by Joe Comartin, and Howard McCurdy, both of the NDP. Prior to them it was long held by Mark MacGuigan and Paul Martin Sr. of the Liberals. I have gotten a sense that this was indeed going to be a nail biter, and I thought it to be a toss up. Today on my Facebook I see that Unifor Local 444, the largest and strongest union in our area has endorsed Irek Kusmierczyk, I think this will put him Irek over the top, in this union town.
18/09/21 Jake H.
Here's some logic... The NDP candidate is also a past winner, and only lost in 2019 by 1%... The NDP are polling better nationally, regionally and in this riding than in 2019, when they had a disappointing showing... The Liberals are also trending down here... Trudeau's handling of the pandemic is not considered as wonderful outside the LP as you seem to think, Jeff, and not just among the so-called oogie-boogie men ‘The Anti-Vaxxers’ - this is especially true in Windsor, where many businesses, workers and the general public depend much more on the borders being opened, for better or worse... historically, the Windsor area is a union city where the NDP have a huge bed of support...
This adds up to this being a safe call: The NDP will retake this seat.
17/09/21 jeff316
There is logic lacking in some of the NDP predictions. The Liberal candidate is now an incumbent, this helps the Liberals. The NDP candidate is a past loser, this helps the Liberals. The Conservatives have flubbed the pandemic (broadly speaking, brand-wise), this helps the Liberals. The PPC is pulling Conservative and NDP voters, this helps the Liberals.
17/09/21 Michael
Somewhat surprising this is not considered a ‘riding to watch’. A quite close three way race last election. This time around the Conservative candidate is not nearly as strong while the Liberal and NDP candidates have flipped as in the incumbent/challenger. It seems to be the presumptive assumption that had the NDP ran someone other than Hardcastle, the NDP would win this seat by a comfortable margin. That said, anything other than an NDP win this time around would mean a very poor night for the orange party and a surprisingly strong showing by the Liberals. Mark this one down for the NDP. Any other result would be indicative of a large and dramatic NDP vote collapse which I just don't see happening this cycle.
The NDP candidate has won before by a good margin, and the NDP have (no surprise) fared very well both provincially and federally in the Windsor area. Some predict a three way race with the Conservatives possibly coming up the middle, but I don't think they'll be much more of a factor this time than in 2019, with the PPC eating away some of their votes (and some NDP votes too). The Liberal win in Windsor Tec in 2019 was by 1% - this time the NDP will take the seat back with a comfortable margin of victory.
13/09/21 Here
I think the hard charging PPC are going to influence a couple of seats and this is one.
02/09/21 NickM.
Since LPC are the incumbents, and CPC are competitive, I am of the belief that the NDP traditionally collapses in this scenario.
Unless the NDP have a effective ground game. I believe this riding will be a LPC cake walk despite the LPC losing the general election.
02/09/21 Predictions
Irek is a strong incumbent, but he won very narrowly in 2019 and the Liberals are weaker now. The pandemic border closures in particular might hurt the party in this riding where many depend on Can-US trade. Hardcastle isn't a very strong candidate for the NDP, but she did only lose by 600 votes in 2019. The Tories have a very slight chance of slipping by, but in a union town like Windsor, it's always an uphill battle.
With current polling numbers, I'd give the NDP a slight lead in this riding, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Libs hold on.
02/09/21 R.O.
A rematch of the 2019 election except this time Irek Kumsmiercszky is the incumbent and Cheryl Hardcastle the ndp candidate. The riding was also a 3 way race in 2019 with the conservatives not far behind. Tough one to predict at this point , with the ndp doing better would think they have at least a chance here as this riding had been ndp for a long time but depends on how well liked the incumbent is and how the race in Ontario plays out.
26/08/21 Sam
Whether Cheryl Hardcastle was a 'bad MP', by all accounts she was considered to have been a poor candidate who rubbed people the wrong way that doesn't entirely explain her defeat, but it explains it in the sense that the drop was far more dramatic here than in next door. As has been said though, it's possible voters are willing to forgive that and hand the riding back to the NDP but had Hardcastle not had such a poor performance we would not be discussing it. Anyway, all three parties have a shout, but the Liberals probably have the most delicate of balancing acts needed to hold on.
24/08/21 Outside Inside
Whatever drama there might have been in 2019 around the recording of Cheryl Hardcastle's unvarnished phone conversations, or whatever assertions other oddly in-sync contributors to this page have made about her having been a 'bad MP,' Hardcastle still nearly held on in spite of all of these things, and at a time when the NDP were at a federal low-point not seen since the early Paul Martin era. Now that NDP numbers in Ontario are no longer in the dumpster, this shouldn't be difficult for them to take back.
22/08/21 PY
I lived in the city from 1999 to 2003, attending the University. My favourite bartender worked at Changez for many years and lived in an apartment not far from the club on Langlois; whenever I struggle to remember the dividing line, I always remind myself of her place (Windsor West) and the Hungry Howie's that was to the east (of course, not Windsor West).
Unfortunately, the NDP have likely shot themselves in the foot with Cheryl Hardcastle returning as their candidate. I have to give the edge to Irek here.
17/08/21 C B
I was going to give it to the NDP, then they went and nominated Cheryl Hardcastle again, a move that has left many Windsorites scratching their heads. Did they not understand the level of dislike the community had for Hardcastle? I’m going to give an outside shot to the Conservatives. You just never know.
04/08/21 KXS
I'm surprised the NDP are fielding Hardcastle again, who was seen as a poor MP and candidate.
I think the Liberals will hold on to this, but it will be close again.
If the NDP win this back, it would be due to the central campaign and their leader.
21/07/21 Marco Ricci
Former NDP MP Cheryl Hardcastle is running again to win back the seat she lost to Irek Kusmierczyk in 2019. It will be interesting to see what happens in the re-match.
19/07/21 Mr. Dude
Truly a riding to watch.
The NDP has nominated Cheryl Hardcastle once again. It's a perplexing decision by the NDP membership. She hasn't really recovered from her previous missteps. An easy win would be apologizing to Tecumseh's Mayor for her recorded statements about him and it hasn't happened. https://www.facebook.com/100010420213414/videos/vb.100010420213414/117204881970185/
I don't see how the NDP can match their vote total from last time given the loss of their incumbency, unless Jagmeet Singh comes out and wows the masses.
Meanwhile there appears to be some sort of disconnect between Windsor's Mayor and the MP over funding success and over vaccine procurement from the United States. The Mayor endorsed the MP last election. https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/kusmierczyk-called-out-as-city-hall-frustration-mounts-over-rejected-projects
The PPC and Rhinos have nominated their candidates as well but the PPC candidate has blocked the Rhino in a friendly Twitter engagement. Not a great sign for his campaign. https://twitter.com/RhinoWray/status/1415742648078508034
There could be a lot of horse trading here between the parties. If the Conservatives nominate an appealing candidate they could very well be in the game too.
It's very early to call and anyone could win from the starting point created last election.
19/06/21 seasaw
This one's interesting. It could stay Liberal, go NDP and I never thought that I'd say this about this riding, could even go CPC, let's wait and see.
08/08/21 A.S.
On the face of things, Irek would look like the ultimate walking, talking, crawling-on-his-belly-like-a-reptile One-Election-Wonder, ‘how on earth did he do it’, etc, As for Hardcastle, well, re ‘unless Jagmeet Singh comes out and wows the masses’, actually it *does* look like he's ‘wowing the masses’, so there's Hardcastle's justification right there. And, as '19 saw this as a 3-way near-supermarginal--given O'Toole's blue-collar pitch, what is the likelihood of. after years of bold breakthrough talk on EPP, that breakthrough actually happening? Of course, much as in '19 for Irek, it might involve nothing more than the votes splitting ‘just so’...

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