Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-23 10:44:26

Constituency Profile


Berman, Hal

Ehsassi, Ali

Gorka, Anna

Lee, Daniel

Wahab, Al


Ali Ehsassi

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



19.77 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Ali Ehsassi ** 2228249.00%
Daniel Lee 1645236.20%
Leah Kalsi 42319.30%
Sharolyn Vettese 16713.70%
Richard Hillier 5631.20%
Birinder Singh Ahluwalia 2000.40%
Shodja Ziaian 710.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ali Ehsassi 2451953.40%
Chungsen Leung ** 1699037.00%
Pouyan Tabasinejad 32037.00%
James Arruda 10252.20%
Birinder Singh Ahluwalia 2160.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (83.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   York Centre
   (16.49% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Stan Cho 1773243.63%
David Zimmer * 1081526.61%
Saman Tabasinejad 1048125.79%
Randi Ramdeen 9322.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 680.20%

13/09/21 Ont2
The incumbent has had a tremendous increase in name recognition and has served the constituency rather well ever since he took office in 2015. He is currently one the most effective and efficient Parliamentary Secretaries within Government. Unsure why he is continuously overlooked for a Ministerial position, but a portfolio under him seems inevitable. Willowdale is looking quite comfortable in his favour.
02/09/21 R.O.
Rematch of the 2019 election with incumbent Ali Ehsassi facing conservative candidate Daniel Lee. This riding had been conservative in 2011 when Chungsen Leung mp. and was pc in 79 when Joe Clark won and 84 when Mulroney won. But largely has been a liberal riding going back to the late 80’s as they’ve dominated the 416 nearly every election except 2011. it is currently held by the pc’s provincially as Stan Cho is the mpp but his victory was largely the result of a liberal/ndp vote split .
19/08/21 meme
Relatively close relative to history last time, it is prime Conservative territory on the way to a majority. An overperformance gives this to the CPC
28/07/21 A.S.
Maybe the Libs have historically only lost twice and by narrow margins; but let's face it--*this*, of all ridings, turned in the unlikely narrowest Lib-CPC margin in the 416 last election (and the only Lib non-majority where CPC was 2nd). So by that logic, it actually *wouldn't* any longer require a major Liberal implosion to deliver this to the Cons--though one thing that might have helped last time is that they nominated a strong candidate from within the Korean-Canadian community (which made for an interesting ethno-battle w/Ehsassi), as opposed to the blonde Karens running in DVN & York Centre who embodied the tin-earedness of the Scheer campaign. And he's running again. Still, '19 feels more like momentary fluke than foretelling.
04/07/21 seasaw
Since inception, the Liberals have only lost this riding twice, once was during the Mulroney mega landslide, the other during the Ignatieff disaster, both of the losses were very close, so it's safe to say that this riding, barring a major Liberal implosion ( possible not probable), will stay Liberal, even if the Liberals were to lose the election
20/06/21 Chris N
Willowdale is leaning Liberal at this time. It’s one of the handful of ridings in the GTA where the Liberal vote decreased in 2019, but so to did the CPC, albeit only by a little. The riding is a mishmash of communities - high rise, bungalows and McMansions, as well as cultures - Jewish, Korean, Chinese, Russian, Iranian and others - possibly making it the most heterogenous Toronto riding outside of the core.

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