Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:53:35

Constituency Profile


Androvic, Thomas

Dias, Brian

Kotilainen, Johannes

Shahid, Maleeha

Turnbull, Ryan


Ryan Turnbull

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



146.66 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Ryan Turnbull 3018243.70%
Todd McCarthy 2456435.50%
Brian Dias 976014.10%
Paul Slavchenko 37355.40%
Mirko Pejic 8601.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Celina Caesar-Chavannes 2900345.00%
Pat Perkins ** 2715442.10%
Ryan Kelly 667710.30%
Craig Cameron 14032.20%
Jon O'Connor 2790.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1680.32%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lorne Coe * 2647145.8%
Niki Lundquist 2115836.61%
Leisa Washington 744112.87%
Stacey Leadbetter 19583.39%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2460.50%

20/09/21 Turtle
While I agree that the Conservatives seem to be winning the sign war, I have noticed in our neighborhood some interesting moves. One person who always has signs up does not even though they fly a Conservative flag on their car. And then even that disappeared. Another neighbour had signs on their lawn in the morning early in the campaign and by the afternoon they were in the garage. Could it be that once again a tight nomination race is causing some Conservatives to sit out the election. This happened before and it has lead to back to back Liberal wins in a formerly safe Conservative seat. Or is this the PCC effect - a decent crowd on those supporters on the Regional Headquarters lawn Saturday spouting their anti-vaccine rhetoric. While the Liberals may be bleeding some votes in Whitby (and elsewhere), could the Conservatives lose in Whitby by also bleeding votes to the PCC - or just by having supporters sit out due to the nomination process?
11/09/20 R.O.
Both Trudeau and O’toole visited the Whitby riding on Friday , O’toole actually did 2 events here one at a farm in north Whitby and at the go station on Saturday according to what I saw. An indication the race here remains close as riding typically sees close races federally .
04/09/21 JC
This is the type of key riding the LPC and CPC both need to win and it looks to be 2015 close in either direction, within 2k but the CPC need it more to form government. The riding feels like a swing right now that could come down to the local ground games getting their base vote out to edge a win and if the war rooms aren't feeling spicy they should be. While I don't see the Liberals dropping 6-8k votes, without knowing how the campaigns locally are going to deliver, for me its TCTC.
04/09/21 Matt B.
This one is tough to say - even 338 has the polling dead even with a 50/50 split LPC and CPC, listed as a toss-up. This riding is the very definition of a toss-up. It will go Liberal or Conservative for sure, but who can say which? Only the voters know for sure.
02/09/21 Jon
Sign war favouring Maleeha, this is a conservative riding when there's conservatives worth voting for. Erin is a Flaherty type Conservative, it's going to be tight but likely flips.
24/08/21 Outside Inside
Drew613's interpretation of that Mainstreet poll is a bit, dare I say, rose-coloured. I very much doubt that neck-and-neck Durham regional polling translates to the Conservatives winning Oshawa by 20 points and O'Toole's riding by 30 points while simultaneously getting clobbered everywhere else in Durham. It's far more likely that CPC support is at least a BIT more evenly distributed in the region, and that this seat is likely the most competitive one.
23/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals at 43% and with a 14 point lead in the GTA. The poll also had the CPC and Libs in a statistical tie in Durham Region (39 vs 38). That means Whitby should be an easy Liberal hold while the eastern parts of Durham tilt more CPC-friendly. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
23/08/21 R.O.
Not sure I see this one as an easy liberal hold certainly not as things stand now . true it was more of a Flaherty riding when he won here . but its voted for other tory candidates provincially and 2014 by election when Pat Perkins briefly mp. The new conservative candidate Maleeha Shadid was a city councillor for Whitby. Ryan Turnbull remains a relatively low profile mp in Ottawa and he can’t hold it based on his name alone. This suburban area has been a swing area between liberals and conservatives .
19/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
I will happily cop to being one of those that got this wrong in 2019, though DurhamDave, you are re-writing history - you did not predict a Liberal win in 2019 (at least not here), you said it would be close and it wasn't. You did not say the CPC would win, so kudos there.
I have connections to Oshawa and not Whitby but it always surprises me how different the two places are especially when you drive between them, Whitby is very suburban, Oshawa is a city.
15/08/21 DurhamDave
Liberal hold, and I was one of the few people who correctly predicted that Whitby would go LPC last time. This was more of a Flaherty/Elliot riding than a Conservative one.
O'Toole might be the local boy and the Cons might have a better candidate this time around, but as long as the LPC holds a lead in Ontario, then Whitby will stick with them. The LPC picked up more votes last election and since they're polling better in Ontario this time, I see no reason to think why they'd lose any ground here.
06/08/21 A.S.
A just-in-case-there-*are*-O'Toole-coattails kind of non-prediction. But one thing that's forgotten re the Flaherty/Elliott Con mythology within the riding: pre-Flaherty, Whitby was actually fairly safely/boringly Liberal under Judi Longfield, and there was never any reason why it couldn't be so again. (CCC's main problem was that she *wasn't* boring.)
30/07/21 KXS
Liberal hold.
The general consensus on this website was that the CPC was going to win this riding back in 2019. However, the Liberals won expanded their margin from approx. 2000 votes to 5500 votes.
The riding has changed dramatically from the 2000s and early 2010s. Flaherty and Elliott were also super popular here resulting in easy Tory wins.
I'm sure an argument could be made that the Tories can pick this up as their party leader is from Durham. But I don't see O'Toole having coattails.

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