Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-03 16:46:17

Constituency Profile


Cassels, Jonathan

Chagger, Bardish

Doucette, Patrick

Shannon, Meghan

Villagomez Fajardo, Karla


Bardish Chagger

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



72.62 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bardish Chagger ** 3108548.80%
Jerry Zhang 1561524.50%
Lori Campbell 971015.20%
Kirsten Wright 61849.70%
Erika Traub 11121.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bardish Chagger 2975249.70%
Peter Braid ** 1931832.30%
Diane Freeman 892814.90%
Richard Walsh 17132.90%
Emma Hawley-Yan 1380.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3660.68%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Catherine Fife * 2731550.54%
Dan Weber 1697331.41%
Dorothy Mccabe 657712.17%
Zdravko Gunjevic 26134.83%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3570.81%

09/09/21 Waterlooguy
Should be a safe seat for the Liberals. That said, don't sense much excitement or see many signs around, in stark contrast to painted-green Kitchener Centre.
I don't think Chagger's association with WE will be a big drag locally. I do think there are a LOT of switchers who will support her at the slightest hint of CPC strength in Ontario, and the Liberals have been pushing that button pretty hard the last week with their campaign.
09/09/21 seasaw
@Wildflower, You keep posting your biased opinion nonsense on almost every post. Nobody's going to bring two tier health-care, that's just a fear mongering rhetoric from the Liberals that they've used for ages and it's getting old, it has sometimes worked in the past, but most times it hasn't. And the Liberals record on climate change, it's not exactly stellar either. Now getting back to this riding, Chagger's name comes up on a couple of scandals, first is the We and the new one is the Saini affair, she may lose some votes, however, she's done a good enough job to keep her seat, regardless.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Liberals will keep this seat.
1) Nobody wants a 2 tier healthcare system
2) People will not fall for Otoole plans to have weaker climate targets
3) The students will likely vote liberals to get an increase in Canada student loans $$
02/08/21 Sam
Given how far back the Tories have fallen here I don't think they've got a shout in an urban, educated, middle-income, diverse riding like this. Regardless of Bardish Chagger's performance, she's still a prominent standard bearer for the Liberals. But I'm confident she won't lose either way, certainly not on these polling numbers.
30/07/21 Dr Bear
Even with the Greens over tripling their support from 2015 to 2019, the Liberals still got more than twice the votes from their nearest challenger. An easy Liberal hold.
08/08/21 A.S.
Chagger's sitting on the best Liberal result in Ontario outside of the GTA and National Capital Region; let that speak for itself. Oh, and last time I speculated out loud on the likelihood of a 2nd place NDP in case Catherine Fife coattails and Doug Ford hatred confronted one another. Well, NDP + Green combined pushed ahead of CPC, if *that* serves as any kind of answer.

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