Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-14 14:18:58

Constituency Profile


DeVita, Peter Michael

Greco, Mario

Khan, Muhammad Hassan

Mele, Luca

Panacci, Angela

Sorbara, Francesco


Francesco Sorbara

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



79.84 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Francesco Sorbara ** 2581051.30%
Teresa Kruze 1828936.30%
Peter DeVita 39107.80%
Raquel Fronte 13022.60%
Domenic Montesano 8521.70%
Muhammad Hassan Khan 1650.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Francesco Sorbara 2304148.70%
Julian Fantino ** 2074643.90%
Adriana Marie Zichy 21984.60%
Anthony Gualtieri 7161.50%
Elise Boulanger 5971.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Tibollo 2168750.5%
Steven Del Duca * 1374232%
Sandra Lozano 625414.56%
Michael Dipasquale 9722.26%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6091.84%

04/08/21 A.S.
While real, Italian-Canadian Liberal support tends to be ‘Blue Lib’ conditional, and heavily laden by qualities that also dispose it t/w Ford Nationalism. However, the more enduringly broad rightward shift that's seemingly permanently imprinted once-Lib-reliable ethno-cohorts such as the Jewish, the Chinese, and the Polish (to say nothing of ‘Reagan Democrats’ in the US) has so far evaded the Italians--thus the 15-point gap over a wouldbe ‘star candidate’ last time (albeit one not blessed by a desirably Italian surname--that is, the ScheerCons' candidacy tin-earedness striking again). Though for CPC, at least Vaughan-Woodbridge is no St Leonard-St Michel, i.e. they're still ‘viable’ here.
13/06/21 Stevo
Italian-Canadians vote Liberal. Period. Almost always have, and almost always will. It's very difficult to dislodge the Liberals here; the Conservatives require a big name (eg. Fantino) and a particularly weak Liberal campaign to pull it off. I don't see that happening this time.
06/08/21 MF
Vaughan-Woodbridge is no longer the super-duper Liberal fortress it was in the Chretien era, but a pretty middling 905 riding one at this point. As long as the Liberals lead in the GTA, they should be safe. Not sure if running a non-Italian candidate diminished the CPC numbers somewhat last time.

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