Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:30:03

Constituency Profile


Freeland, Chrystia

Garvie, Drew

Grant, Tim

Kent, David

Robicheau, Nicole

Taylor, Steven


Chrystia Freeland

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13.60 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Chrystia Freeland ** 2965251.70%
Melissa Jean-Baptiste Vajda 1257321.90%
Helen-Claire Tingling 934216.30%
Tim Grant 48618.50%
Aran Lockwood 5100.90%
Liz White 1590.30%
Drew Garvie 1430.20%
Karin Brothers 1240.20%
Steve Rutchinski 270.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Chrystia Freeland ** 2784949.80%
Jennifer Hollett 1598828.60%
Karim Jivraj 979017.50%
Nick Wright 16412.90%
Jesse Waslowski 2330.40%
Simon Luisi 1260.20%
Drew Garvie 1250.20%
David Berlin 1220.20%
Steve Rutchinski 510.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3790.81%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (68.73% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Toronto Centre
   (31.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jessica Bell 2453749.66%
Jo-Ann Davis 1089822.06%
Gillian Smith 1043121.11%
Tim Grant 26525.37%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8522.15%

20/08/21 Mark
Chrystia Freeland is deputy PM, star candidate, and will be campaigning directly with Trudeau nationwide. Her seat is safe, and the other parties will avoid this one.
19/08/21 R.O.
Chrystia Freeland is favoured to hold the riding as things stand now , perhaps the ndp do a bit better after there surprise provincial win in same riding but likely to stay liberal.
18/07/21 A.S.
When it comes to Brahmin-ness, it's interesting how UniR has shaken out to be not so electorally different from Toronto-St. Paul's, in the end--the Lib share's only 2 1/2 points lower, and the NDP and CPC shares are yin-yanged lower-reaches versions of one another. Though I don't know whether that says more about where St. Paul's is going than about where UniR is going. There probably *will* be opposition effort by default, if only because the U of T presence means a lot of Jagmeet-high-polling millennials and post-millennials out there. But yeah; finance minister, Deputy PM and prospective prime ministerial successor. Hard to push *that* away.
06/06/21 Chris N
Easy win the for the Liberals. The PCs have some pockets of support in Yorkville and Rosedale, and the NDP in the Christie Pits and Harbord areas, but it won't be nearly enough to topple the Deputy PM.
15/05/21 MF
Home to both the Annex and Rosedale (and of course, the University of Toronto), University-Rosedale is a ‘Brahmin Liberal’ riding through and through. It has the highest educational attainment of any riding in Canada (67% have university degrees, 31% have advanced degrees), and the highly educated are now one of the most reliable Liberal demographics. Chrystia Freeland fits the riding demographic well and like last time it's unlikely the other parties will put much effort in here.

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