Election Prediction Project

Toronto Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-13 23:00:29

Constituency Profile


Byard, Ivan

Chang, Brian

Ien, Marci

Jaffery, Syed

Lester, Ryan

Paul, Annamie

Stubbins, Peter


Marci Ien

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5.84 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bill Morneau ** 3127157.40%
Brian Chang 1214222.30%
Ryan Lester 661312.10%
Annamie Paul 38527.10%
Rob Lewin 1820.30%
Sean Carson 1470.30%
Jason Tavares 1260.20%
Bronwyn Cragg 1250.20%
Philip Fernandez 540.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bill Morneau 2929757.90%
Linda McQuaig 1346726.60%
Julian Di Battista 616712.20%
Colin Biggin 13152.60%
Jordan Stone 1470.30%
Mariam Ahmad 1330.30%
Philip Fernandez 760.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4861.30%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Toronto Centre
   (99.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Suze Morrison 2368853.66%
David Morris 1198627.15%
Meredith Cartwright 623414.12%
Adam Sommerfeld 13773.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10653.11%

18/09/21 Jake H.
Annamie Paul did a fine job in the English debate and got a couple of great clips out of it on the news, and for replays on the internet, but is that enough to break through? Not nearly.
Certainly as the Greens' leader she will pick up a lot of votes, but enough to take her from less than 8% (in 2019) to winning this strong Liberal seat? Still not nearly.
She has also been campaigning almost exclusively in her own riding, which could either mean that 1) their internal polling shows they have a chance, with a strong enough ground game, to actually take this seat, or 2) she/they are trying desperately to avoid the king of shellacking on election day that, quite frankly, party leaders tend not to survive. My money is on the latter. So will her ground game make enough of a difference? Still not enough.
I'd love to see her win this seat and have a Toronto Green in Parliament, but as much as I try to convince myself there is a path to victory for her here, there just isn't. This is such a safe Liberal seat, like most of laser-focused Red Toronto, that they probably don't even see the other candidates' names on the ballot. Safe Liberal hold, despite Paul's great efforts. She deserves a higher % of the vote than she will get here.
14/09/21 Thomas K
Uh, I really don't know what everyone is talking about, Paul's debate performance was quite mediocre. She's not going to precipitate a collapse of NDP and Liberal support and win this in any scenario, sorry.
13/09/21 Diefenbakerblues
The idea that Paul had some kind of debate performance that could change the outcome here is simply partisan thinking. The Abacus poll below shows the Paul didn't meaningfully get through during the English debate.
Abacus Data / September 12, 2021 / Online
'Net Positive Reaction Of (X) During...'
English Debate (Anglophones):
Singh: +33%
O'Toole: +11%
Paul: +9%
Trudeau: +2%
Blanchet: -20%
12/09/20 JC
This will be a Liberal hold. Paul isn't getting a 25k vote swing, this would mean a total collapse of both the NDP and Liberals into the Greens. NDP would have a good run if they can get it within 5k.
Even if the Liberals lose 10k votes, it would be distributed across three parties to ensure an LPC win.
11/09/21 Drew613
Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Toronto proper. With a lead like that, none of the 416 ridings are at risk of flipping. This is also almost unchanged (well within the MoE) from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. Toronto Centre = Liberal hold. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view
10/09/21 Not TC
Ms. Paul’s performance in the debates has sealed her fate as the next MP for Toronto Centre.
09/09/21 MarcC
I'm quite surprised to see the amount of money being spent by both NDP and Liberal teams and have been 'hit' by each in ways that weren't happening in the by-election. I am not certain what this might mean for the outcome as I suspect different factors to work for and against each of the parties.
I would guess the Liberals will still take this riding with a similar margin to last time but may still bleed votes to both NDP and Conservative candidates, both of whom are representing more resurgent brands, are running stronger local campaigns, and were pushed to their respective base levels in the by-election.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Greens perform similarly to the by-election but may see a modest drop as well given the heightened investment from the other parties.
07/09/21 Pulsetaker
FYI, Annamie Paul does NOT live in Toronto Centre. She lives in St. Paul's
06/09/21 PM
I think there will be a few CPC and NDP supporters who will vote Green here. It is thier only way to defeat the Liberal candidate in this riding.
06/09/21 Jeff316
Correction to Dr Bear below: Libby is referring to the Aug 30 Radio-Canada panel interview - all leaders were interviewed live in-studio in Montreal, save for Paul who chose to remain in Toronto and be interviewed remotely. (Libby is not discussing the debate.) I don’t think it really changes her standing in this riding but it’s not a good look on a national leader. Rebounding Liberal numbers don’t help her but she’s within a decent shot and the Green ground game locally is strong.
05/09/21 Wildflower
I think it will be close, but I think Liberals will hold onto Toronto Centre, and other ridings around GTA. Mainly, because people do not trust O'toole healthcare plans , and they want action on climate, and better job creation.
05/09/21 seasaw
Annamie Paul is a decent individual who is running in a riding where she lives in, instead of going to another province where she doesn't reside. She may be well liked here, her likeability however, will not result in enough votes to make her win. This riding will be an easy Liberal hold, for now at least.
04/09/21 Libby Burgundy
Correction to Dr. Bear's correction below: read the comment again. I wasn't talking about the TVA debate, I was talking about the Radio-Canada leaders' forum, which Ms. Paul attended by teleconference. Invited, but unable to attend, and certainly not because she was too busy jetting around the country.
04/09/21 Danny
This riding votes for Liberals first, and winners second. Lately, neither the Green Party nor Annamie Paul look like winners. This'll go Liberal and it won't be close.
03/09/21 The Jackal
Given the Green party’s current woes and the other parties chances in this riding I think Marci Ien has little to worry about
03/09/21 Swinging Party
Too close to call until national debates, we'll see if Annamie can appear intelligent, clearly from the 2018 provincial election and 2020 by-election, the lib voters will switch to NDP/Green easily
03/09/21 Dr Bear
Correction to Libby’s post below: Ms Paul’s absence in the TVA debate is not because the Greens couldn’t afford to send her. It’s because she wasn’t invited (only top tier candidates in Quebec were welcome).
Other commenters have suggested that voters from other parties, hoping to knock off a Liberal, would coalesce around Ms Paul. While that might be true for some CPC voters, I feel most right of centre voters couldn’t stomach it. As for NDP supporters, they are smelling blood in the water. They will be voting NDP in the hopes that a (seemingly) poor showing for Trudeau and a (seemingly) strong showing for Singh will allow the NDP to come up the middle of a vote split.
03/09/21 Predictions
For what it's worth, Annamie Paul is campaigning exclusively in this riding, so she must have a ground-game advantage. Were she a popular politician, I'd give her a chance here, but she's not. Toronto Centre seems like a ‘left-of-Liberal’ riding on the surface, especially since Rosedale was redistricted out of it, but with the exception of 2018 provincial, the Libs always manage to hold here. I don't expect that to change.
02/09/21 Gone Fishing
Seriously now and this comes from the executive president of the ‘all liberals are scum society’.
You stand a ghost of a chance of winning this riding if you are a red tory, not a little bit pink tory but bleeding red tory.
The green party is not and never has been a party it is a small collection of well meaning liberals who feel strongly that they need to walk to work, recycle toilet paper and befriend and hug a polar bear as a source of winter heat.
Donald Trump could win this riding for the liberals possibly against Bill Davis.
Anything can happen except the world will not reverse it’s rotation any sooner than the liberals loose to a leader without a party or a con servant I’ve or socialist without a profile.
Five candidates in this riding don’t even rate a Wikipedia page
02/09/21 D from Toronto
I am a CPC supporter living in TC. I will be voting Green and I know other CPC and NDP-leaning friends will as well. If I had known how close Ms. Paul would be in the byelection I would have voted Green then. With LPC fortunes down; and with the recent controversy giving Ms. Paul name recognition, I think she stands a good chance - although it will be a tough two way race.
02/09/21 Libby Burgundy
Despite all appearances to the contrary, Annamie Paul is one lucky duck.
The bad news is that the Greens are broke, so she finds herself marooned in downtown Toronto. She wasn't even able to make it to Montreal for the Radio-Canada panel interview, which every other invited leader attended. Things look bad.
The good news is that, if she has to be stranded somewhere, there's nowhere she's more useful to her party right now than in downtown Toronto. The Greens may not be polling especially well at the national or provincial level, but Paul has the luxury of mostly running against the Liberals: if this were an NDP-held riding, she'd already be toast. With Liberal fortunes the way they are, she's still in with a chance.
01/09/21 RG
Again, I question the integrity of those operating this site. Just because the Green Party leader is running in this riding that does not mean this is TCTC. I am absolutely no fan of the LPC. But, this riding is one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. If the LPC loses this seat, they are in for a 1993 repeat of what happened to the PCs. Safe Liberal. The orgnanizers of this site are undermining their credibility with these ridiculous predictions based on the celebrity of the candidates (eg Derek Sloan in Airdrie-Banff ... a safe Tory seat, not TCTC).
31/08/21 GritBusters
The riding is a Liberal stronghold, and Paul is much weaker as a leader than she was in the by-election.
The real battle here will be for the race for second between the NDP and the Greens.
27/08/21 R.O.
Originally though Annamie Paul would have more of a shot here after her stronger than expected result in the by election. But she’s had a rough time as leader since and has yet to leave Toronto this election and its day 13 of the election campaign. I don’t think it would hurt her local campaign here if she traveled to other ridings as I think people expect the party leader to do that. And wouldn’t expect her to only stay in this riding as mp obviously she’s going to travel the country as green leader. But as she has a spot in the debates I’d wait and see how she does there before commenting further on the race here.
27/08/21 KXS
There is a notion that Paul would have won the by-election if the NDP didn't split the ‘left’ vote. But I feel if the NDP didn't field a candidate, the Liberals would've still won.
More New Democrats chose Liberals as their 2nd choice than Greens.
Polls show a consistent trend that the NDP has gained in Ontario. The Greens have no momentum, their campaign and party is in disarray.
I would make a bold prediction that Paul will end up 3rd in this riding behind Ien and Chang.
23/08/21 jeff316
Paul might have squeaked in that by-election had the NDP not run a candidate or had other NDP, Liberal, and Conservative voters had an inkling she was going to come so close. Despite all the bad press, she's a household name and one good debate away from being the come-back story of the election. A bet on Paul isn't nuts here.
23/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals at 50% in the 416, which re-confirms what the Mainstreet Toronto-Centre Liberal poll said last week. Liberal hold with the only question being with Paul finish 2nd or 3rd. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
22/08/21 Marco Ricci
The Mainstreet riding poll posted below is certainly not a good start for Annamie Paul. But with the Liberals down in some of the new Ontario polls, there is an opportunity for her to make up some ground. She performed better than people expected during the by-election and could do better than expected in this election. The riding probably still leans Liberal based on its history, but there could be an opening for Paul.
20/08/21 RobertG
Unless there's a seismic change, the Liberals will win this riding. I fail to see why it's in the undecided column. I say this as a very anti-Liberal voter. This won't be close. If they lose this riding, they're in a PC 1993 meltdown.
19/08/21 Laurence Putnam
It took Elizabeth May multiple tries in three different provinces to finally win a seat and Annamie Paul is no Elizabeth May. Neither is Toronto Centre at all akin to Saanich-Gulf Islands. Paul will lose, the Greens will retract their vote considerably and in all likelihood, Elizabeth May will go back to being the only MP and defacto leader of the party as it once again fights itself to establish relevancy on the federal stage.
In the meantime, federal Liberals are safe in a riding practically Taylor-made for them.
17/08/21 South Islander
Huge lead for the incumbent. Clearly a handful of CPC and NDP voters are, as Blueish says, voting strategically for the Green leader, but it's only enough to put her at 15%, down by 24%, compared to winning only 7% and losing by 50% as she did in 2019 before she was leader. If Paul barely finished within 10% in a byelection for an open seat immediately after her leadership win, I just don't see her winning in a general election against an incumbent shortly after her party's public implosion.
17/08/21 marco
Marci Ien definitely starts with the advantage here but don't count Paul out either. Strategic voting and the sympathy ballot for their party leader mean she has a shot. Besides, she has been campaigning far harder and far longer in this riding now that the pandemic has subsided somewhat since late 2020. Lean Liberal, but their victory here is by no means assured (yet)
17/08/21 Paddy
I'm struggling to understand how this is considered a tossup. Marci Ien will easily take Toronto Centre again. Downtown doesn't vote Conservative in great numbers. I can't see the Green Party picking up many more votes than in the by-election. The NDP will challenge as always and garner substantial votes, but not enough to counter the strength of the Liberal brand and Ien's public persona.
16/08/21 Blueish
I live in the riding; greens have knocked on my door already and I had a flyer from them pre-writ.
As a long-time Tory, I have decided to strategically vote for Ms. Paul. I think she deserves a break; and there is no realistic chance for anyone else to beat the LPC.
My Tory friends and even some NDP neighbours are thinking the same. If the LPC fortunes decline even a bit, this turns into a fairly safe seat for the GPC.
14/08/21 Lolitha
Mainstreet riding poll: 40% Lib, 15.5% Green. Still 1/4 undecided.
14/08/21 Hammer
Too Close to Call. It’s interesting to note that despite all the Green Party infighting the last few months, they haven’t taken much of a hit in national polling. I also wonder if the timing of the tussle over the summer months means that the average voter wasn’t giving it much attention. Paul over performed in the last by-election, and I can’t help but feel she is being underestimated again.
10/08/21 Sam
What is often forgotten is that Elizabeth May didn't just march in to Saanich and claim the riding, she had been leader for ages and built name recognition. That was handy when she was leader as she appeared genuinely different and as a viable alternative. Annamie Paul is not that leader - with a party in disarray and less of a distinct platform with the NDP's modern progressivism, she has an uphill battle, against a Liberal incumbent who may actually be more well-known.
I'd call this for the Liberals without question.
08/08/21 Dr Bear
Full disclosure: I am a swing voter, who has voted at one time or another for every major federal party except the BQ. In 2015 I voted Liberal. In 2019 I voted Green. Why? Because I believe that climate change needs to be strongly addressed, and there are many, many voters who believe the same and voted the same way as me in 2015/2019. It was this shift, in part, that costed the Liberals their majority in 2019 (at least six seats were lost by the Liberals because of Green defectors). Voters like me generally avoid the current iteration of the NDP because we are uninterested in the prevalence of identity/woke politics in that party. Now that the Green Party has tried to out NDP the NDP, voters like me are going elsewhere. This was the case even before all the infighting started.
So what does this all mean for TC? It means a safe liberal hold. In order for the Greens to win new voters, they are going to need to attract swing voters who care, first and foremost, about the environment. If that is not what is being projected (and it is NOT being currently projected), then you will see Ms Paul garnering about 20% when the dust settles.
And please let’s not compare the byelection results to a general election. Aside from low turnout in a byelection, the general election is to select the leader of our country. If you can not get your own party in line, how do you expect voters to trust you with the reigns of power?
04/08/21 ScooterTor
If Annamie Paul ever had any realistic chance of capturing this electoral district, it has certainly evaporated owing to the ongoing infighting in the Green Party and the decision to withhold campaign financing that had been earmarked for this race. In addition, Marcie Ien has been far from complacent; she has been recruiting volunteers, fundraising, and doing telephone and in-person canvassing for months. Absent a nationwide collapse in the Liberal vote, this is a Liberal hold.
18/07/21 A.S.
Whatever the byelection result, it's getting to seem likelier and likelier that TC will return to Lib-vs-NDP form--of course, w/no guarantee that Annamie Paul will even be the Green candidate in the end (and if she weren't, a quixotic independent run's not out of the question). And remember that Chang's share only fell from 22% to 17% in the byelection, and in fact his '19 performance qualified as a bit of an ‘overachievement’--TC went from the ‘downtown three's’ NDP-worst to its NDP-best, and Chang was more successful at winning polling stations than Linda McQuaig was in '15. In fact, even before the Green situation went blooey it wouldn't have been out of the question for the NDP under Chang to have re-assumed 2nd place under the normal-turnout dynamics of a general election (after all, the areas where Paul did best in the byelection were those, like Cabbagetown, where there was least turnout falloff from the general). But reassuming 2nd place is one thing; posing a threat to the Libs is another--and only a ‘functional’ Annamie Paul could have done that. Still, don't be surprised if TC evolves into more of a PHP or T-D equivalent when it comes to NDP competitiveness (which'd also echo Suze Morrison's provincial clout)
09/07/21 Chris N
I'm changing my prediction from â€کToo Close to Call’ to Liberal. Since my prediction last May, the GPC have been making headlines for all the wrong reasons. The high profile inner party squabbles will have two consequences: the party will be less focused on getting their leader a much needed seat, and it will sour potential Green Party voters who see a party that is war torn and lacking in leadership.
02/06/21 Libby Burgundy
Annamie Paul certainly has her work cut out for her. Assuming the Liberals stay strong in downtown Toronto, she's going to have to assemble one motley coalition in order to close that final 10% gap. Is it possible for an NDP led by Jagmeet Singh to poll below 15% in Toronto Centre in a general election? Is it possible for Paul to cleave away a third of the Conservative support? If you think she wins, you need both of those stars to align, and that's feeling like a tall order.
A modest collapse in Liberal support, especially if this collapse is motivated specifically by exhaustion or frustration with Justin Trudeau, would change the dynamic of this race dramatically. But until we see it, the rules of conventional politics must prevail: byelections are byelections, and things tend to revert to the mean in the next general. With that in mind, it's Liberal for now.
29/05/21 KXS
Liberals should be able to hold on to this easily. There are enough habitual Liberal supporters in the riding.
Annamie Paul's strong performance in the by-election is not going to necessarily translate into general election support.
06/05/21 Chris N
All eyes are on this riding in the next general. Annamie Paul plans on running in this riding again after placing a very strong second place in the recent by-election. Similar to Ontario Green Party’s leader Mike Schreiner’s campaign in Guelph in 2018, expect the GPC to pool significant resources in this riding, including reaching out to GPC volunteers from other GTA ridings to travel to Toronto Centre to knock on doors to get their leader elected. The biggest challenge facing the GPC is the historical Liberal grip on Toronto Centre. With the exception of the Wynne Ontario Liberal collapse in 2018, Toronto Centre has always been a reliable Liberal riding. This will be a very exciting race.

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