Election Prediction Project

Timmins-James Bay
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:29:56

Constituency Profile


Angus, Charlie

Black, Steve

Ellerton, Morgan

MacLeod, Stephen


Charlie Angus

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



248070.73 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Charlie Angus ** 1488540.50%
Kraymr Grenke 990727.00%
Michelle Boileau 944325.70%
Max Kennedy 12573.40%
Renaud Roy 12483.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Charlie Angus ** 1597442.90%
Todd Lever 1294034.70%
John P. Curley 760520.40%
Max Kennedy 7522.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Timmins-James Bay
   (98.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Gilles Bisson * 897857.43%
Yvan L. Génier 463429.64%
Mickey Auger 13788.81%
Lucas Blake Schinbeckler 2731.75%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 320.22%

12/09/20 NJam101
I live in Timmins-James Bay. The electoral district is huge and they are differences between each community. Somebody mentioned that many people here vote for the person over the party but that is definitely not true. Most people here are quite partisan.
I'm quite sure that Charlie Angus will win again but it won't be a cakewalk. Liberal Steve Black will get quite a votes within the City of Timmins. I have no idea how the CPC candidate will do but he's not very well known. Another surprise is to see a fair number of PPC lawn signs although the candidate doesn't pose a threat of winning by any means. There are some former NDP supporters who have switched to PPC just because they want change.
Angus gets extremely strong support in the far North and from Indigenous peoples throughout the riding. He also gets strong support in the Temiskaming District portion. But he may end up with less than 40% of the votes this time. The vote may be more split than in previous elections. It's very hard to predict how things will go in Timmins and Kirkland Lake.
Angus is one of the best MPs when it comes to working for constituents which ensured his previous victories. That will likely save him again.
Some on here have mentioned higher CPC support than in the past. This area would only go CPC if the vote was split 3-ways and there was a huge CPC sweep across the country such as what happened here in 1984 with the big Mulroney win.
10/09/21 Jake H.
A combination of the popularity of the candidate (Charlie Angus, who came close to becoming leader of this party), a national downtick of support for the Liberals, a regional uptick of NDP support, and the Conservatives failing to break through, makes this seat safe for the NDP. Charlie Angus will hold on, with a comfortable margin of victory, probably with even more of a cushion than in 2019.
09/09/21 JC
People in this riding seem to be voting more for the person than the party but since Charlie is well known and respected, when Charlie decides to hang it up, it will be a more open contest. Cannot see anything indicating a collapse of the NDP vote this time around nor anything the candidate is doing to lose the trust of the communities. Unless the Liberal vote totally migrates to the CPC, which is highly unlikely, it'll be an NDP hold.
17/08/21 R.O.
The liberals are actually running a former mayor of Timmins - Steve Black this election. Also tough to say how the cpc does here as they’ve actually posted some better results than expected in past years. although I’d still say more likely Charlie Angus holds the riding one more time.
16/08/21 jeff316
Will the NDP hold Timmins-James Bay once Charlie Angus is gone. Probably not. But this is 2021 and Charlie is still kicking, despite his antics on the WE file. The race here is will the Liberals reclaim second? I'd bet on that.
09/08/21 A.S.
Here, too, as in AMK, the shock was that of the Cons leaping the Libs for 2nd--which might have been good for Charlie on opposition-mutual-cancellation grounds, even if some of those figures in places like Iroquois Falls bode ominously for a possible Red/Orange Wall-breaching future. But he, himself, also lost share from '15, unlike Carol Hughes--his lowest winning share ever, in fact. And aside from the northern reserves, much of which remains strong for Charlie (Timiskaming District, in particular) is of the sort that could shift fairly emphatically in a Con direction (judging from past Confederation of Regions results and the like). Though maybe that's something more to keep an eye out for in a post-Charlie era, than something that would presently induce a post-Charlie era--which is why I'm still calling this for the NDP. But if we have a situation where the only thing left saving his skin is everything N of Cochrane, don't say I didn't warn you...
13/05/21 ME
Timmons is a safe NDP seat...according to 338
06/08/21 Laurence Putnam
It should concern him that his share of the vote has fallen steadily in the last three elections, and I think Charlie Angus would be wise not to take his incumbency for granted here.
Still, he is one of the most recognizable faces in the NDP caucus and is certainly the most likely candidate to win Timmins regardless of who the Liberals or Conservatives nominate.

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