Election Prediction Project

Thunder Bay-Superior North
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:57:42

Constituency Profile


Bryson, Chantelle

Daines, Rick

Hajdu, Patty

Moddejonge, Amanda

Taylor, Joshua

Vodden, Alexander


Patty Hajdu

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



76852.43 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Patty Hajdu ** 1850242.90%
Frank Pullia 1103625.60%
Anna Betty Achneepineskum 912621.10%
Bruce Hyer 36398.40%
Youssef Khanjari 7341.70%
Alexander Vodden 1400.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Patty Hajdu 2006945.00%
Andrew Foulds 1033923.20%
Richard Harvey 777517.40%
Bruce Hyer ** 615513.80%
Robert Skaf 2700.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2650.70%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Thunder Bay-Superior North
   (97.43% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.57% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Gravelle * 1197339.86%
Lise Vaugeois 1116037.16%
Derek Parks 539517.96%
Amanda Moddejonge 8382.79%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10493.78%

14/09/21 NJam101
Patty Hajdu should have no trouble winning again. Being Northern Ontario's only cabinet minister and all of her media time during the pandemic has will help.
06/09/21 Thomas K
@Wilflower not a place for partisan Liberal ads. No major party is proposing a ‘two tier’ healthcare system, and Patty Hajdu from my perspective has not been a particularly news-visible, nor competent health minister or party to Canada's COVID response.
She will definitely lose ground to the Conservatives and NDP, but the margin is too large to surmount, so she will hold.
05/09/21 Wildflower
People do not want a 2 tier healthcare system
People want more action on climate change, and social housing .Way more job creation
Keep in mind, this is the riding Patty Hajdu, Health Minister represented , and she was very active during the 1st, 2nd, 3rd wave, and is still active in the covid 19 vaccination process
09/08/21 A.S.
Patty Hajdu as the North's powerhouse minister goes a long way (she was the party's top N Ontario electoral performer in '19)--and we're too far from Manitoba/Minnesota dynamics for a Con insurgency to pose a threat the way it does in the other TB riding. That said, for CPC to assume 2nd place (and more solidly so than in said other riding) is a bit of a shock; and once again, the most significant inroads were in remote resource towns a la Longlac/Manitouwadge/Marathon which once might have been *NDP* holdouts vs a Lib wave. And much as in TBRR, the NDP support base has ‘urbanized’. (And unfortunately, I don't know whether their having a FN candidate might explain some of those trending-away patterns.)
20/05/21 Williams_Theo
For however Hajdu has handled / mishandled the COVID-19 pandemic, the residents of Thunder Bay-Superior North will easily re-elect her to her seat.
19/05/21 NIKLAS
Easy win for liberals as Patty Hajdu seems popular here

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster