Aubut, Alan
	MacKinnon, Tracey
	Pecchia, Adelina
	Powlowski, Marcus
	Won, Yuk-Sem
Incumbent:
	Marcus Powlowski

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			82805 82984 40862 35151 32697.86 km² 2.50/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Marcus Powlowski	14498	35.30%
	Linda Rydholm	12039	29.30%
	Yuk-Sem Won	11944	29.10%
	Amanda Moddejonge	1829	4.50%
	Andrew Hartnell	741	1.80%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Don Rusnak	18523	44.00%
	John Rafferty **	12483	29.70%
	Moe Comuzzi	8876	21.10%
	Christy Radbourne	2201	5.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		10138	27.21%
		18125	48.64%
		8085	21.70%
		911	2.44%
Other		0	0.00%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Thunder Bay-Rainy River    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Judith Monteith-Farrell	11793	36.26%
	Bill Mauro *	11712	36.01%
	Brandon Postuma	7555	23.23%
	John Northey	880	2.71%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		15176	52.98%
		3779	13.19%
		8052	28.11%
		964	3.37%
Other		676	2.36%

	14/09/21	NJam101 216.167.228.27
My guess is that Marcus Powlowski will be re-elected. The NDP would have had a shot if they had more momentum but they don't seem to be any different than in 2019. Thunder Bay will likely vote Liberal but it's the Rainy River District that is more unpredictable which could mean a close race. The PPC has the potential to pull away support from both the CPC and NDP candidates which will help Powlowski.
	23/08/21	Physastr Master 128.83.129.44
This was close last time, the Liberals are down, and the NDP is up, especially in Ontario. Aside from the obvious conservative exceptions in cottage country, 338 now has the NDP within 10% of the liberals or ahead in all northern Ontario ridings, and ahead by 4% here. Candidates matter, but with the winds blowing away from the Liberals and towards the NDP in an already tight riding, this should be TCTC, as should Sudbury. The other two Liberal Northern Ontario ridings aren't there yet, but they are worth watching.
	23/08/21	Dr Bear 24.114.104.141
Current polling in Ontario has both the Liberals and the CPC down a few points from 2019, while the NDP are up close to five points. That would suggest that TBRR is in play. The other TB riding is safe in the Liberal column.
	14/08/21	JLB 216.26.196.159
Incumbent Powlowski against a previous NDP also-ran, and an unknown Conservative. Liberal hold.
	09/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
I think it's high time we look at this in 3-way terms not unlike Kenora--or at least, all that's gotten in the way of that is some generic ‘Liberal town’ impression of TB (that is, 2015 as a perceived ‘return to normal’), and the fact that the Cons have never actually crossed into victory (the provincial Kenora-Rainy River in '18 aside). Already, the Libs are a 3rd party force in Rainy River (and in the rural parts W of Rainy Lake, even a sub-20% force), and the CPC inroads are such that they even managed to flip Fort Frances (long a last stand for Howie Hampton Dipperism) last time around. But counter to the Cons conquering the hinterland, the NDP went from being nearly blanked in Fort William in '15 to winning a fair number of polls there in '19--like *their* centre of gravity has shifted from a Fort Frances/Atikokan resource-town base to more openly competing w/the Libs for the ‘urban vote’. And Powlowski was widely seen as not necessarily the best the Libs had on ofer in '19; so, that must have left its mark. Now he's more settled-in; but, you never know...
	31/07/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
Likely Liberal. But the Conservatives have quietly improved on their vote over the past few elections and it is within the realm of possibility that they could take this via a Lib-NDP vote split, especially if the Fort Frances and rural turnout overperforms while Thunder Bay underperforms.
	19/05/21	NIKLAS 216.26.214.188
Most likely staying liberal as Powlowski served only one term so far