Election Prediction Project

Thunder Bay-Rainy River
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-14 23:19:17

Constituency Profile


Aubut, Alan

MacKinnon, Tracey

Pecchia, Adelina

Powlowski, Marcus

Won, Yuk-Sem


Marcus Powlowski

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



32697.86 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marcus Powlowski 1449835.30%
Linda Rydholm 1203929.30%
Yuk-Sem Won 1194429.10%
Amanda Moddejonge 18294.50%
Andrew Hartnell 7411.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Don Rusnak 1852344.00%
John Rafferty ** 1248329.70%
Moe Comuzzi 887621.10%
Christy Radbourne 22015.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Thunder Bay-Rainy River
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Judith Monteith-Farrell 1179336.26%
Bill Mauro * 1171236.01%
Brandon Postuma 755523.23%
John Northey 8802.71%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6762.36%

14/09/21 NJam101
My guess is that Marcus Powlowski will be re-elected. The NDP would have had a shot if they had more momentum but they don't seem to be any different than in 2019. Thunder Bay will likely vote Liberal but it's the Rainy River District that is more unpredictable which could mean a close race. The PPC has the potential to pull away support from both the CPC and NDP candidates which will help Powlowski.
23/08/21 Physastr Master
This was close last time, the Liberals are down, and the NDP is up, especially in Ontario. Aside from the obvious conservative exceptions in cottage country, 338 now has the NDP within 10% of the liberals or ahead in all northern Ontario ridings, and ahead by 4% here. Candidates matter, but with the winds blowing away from the Liberals and towards the NDP in an already tight riding, this should be TCTC, as should Sudbury. The other two Liberal Northern Ontario ridings aren't there yet, but they are worth watching.
23/08/21 Dr Bear
Current polling in Ontario has both the Liberals and the CPC down a few points from 2019, while the NDP are up close to five points. That would suggest that TBRR is in play. The other TB riding is safe in the Liberal column.
14/08/21 JLB
Incumbent Powlowski against a previous NDP also-ran, and an unknown Conservative. Liberal hold.
09/08/21 A.S.
I think it's high time we look at this in 3-way terms not unlike Kenora--or at least, all that's gotten in the way of that is some generic ‘Liberal town’ impression of TB (that is, 2015 as a perceived ‘return to normal’), and the fact that the Cons have never actually crossed into victory (the provincial Kenora-Rainy River in '18 aside). Already, the Libs are a 3rd party force in Rainy River (and in the rural parts W of Rainy Lake, even a sub-20% force), and the CPC inroads are such that they even managed to flip Fort Frances (long a last stand for Howie Hampton Dipperism) last time around. But counter to the Cons conquering the hinterland, the NDP went from being nearly blanked in Fort William in '15 to winning a fair number of polls there in '19--like *their* centre of gravity has shifted from a Fort Frances/Atikokan resource-town base to more openly competing w/the Libs for the ‘urban vote’. And Powlowski was widely seen as not necessarily the best the Libs had on ofer in '19; so, that must have left its mark. Now he's more settled-in; but, you never know...
31/07/21 Stevo
Likely Liberal. But the Conservatives have quietly improved on their vote over the past few elections and it is within the realm of possibility that they could take this via a Lib-NDP vote split, especially if the Fort Frances and rural turnout overperforms while Thunder Bay underperforms.
19/05/21 NIKLAS
Most likely staying liberal as Powlowski served only one term so far

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