Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:21:00

Constituency Profile


Gladstone, Gary

Greenfield, Samuel

Lantsman, Melissa

Mikanovsky, Daniella

Razvi, Raz


Peter Kent

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



62.90 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Peter Kent ** 2918754.60%
Gary Gladstone 1894635.40%
Sara Petrucci 34696.50%
Josh Rachlis 16003.00%
Nathan Bregman 2170.40%
Waseem Malik 770.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Kent ** 3191158.60%
Nancy Coldham 1839533.80%
Lorne Cherry 28145.20%
Josh Rachlis 6271.20%
Gene Balfour 5871.10%
Margaret Leigh Fairbairn 1570.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1600.35%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Gila Martow * 2888961.13%
Ezra Tanen 913419.33%
Sabi Ahsan 698514.78%
Rachel Dokhoian 10432.21%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6311.64%

03/09/21 Will
It will be interesting to see, with Peter Kent's retirement, whether the Liberals can close the gap in this riding. I still expect the Conservatives to take this seat however. The NDP are obviously non-factors here.
02/09/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as Peter Kent has retired , he was first elected in 2008 and the riding had been liberal before he was mp. although this riding has shifted more conservative in recent years provincially and federally . Melissa Lantzman is the new conservative candidate and Gary Gladstone back for the liberals. likely to stay cpc
23/08/21 Drew613
I think Thornhill should be switched to TCTC. A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a sizable 14 point lead in the GTA and lead at 49% support York region. I always thought of Thornhill as more of a Peter Kent riding than a CPC stronghold. With Peter retiring, I think this one will be closer than many think. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
04/08/21 A.S.
Let's not make too much of Lantsman as a ‘poor fit’; as dubious as the ‘Jewish cosmopolitanism’ trope might be, what informs it might explain why such a demo would be perfectly fine w/a Lantsman-style candidate, almost as a wouldbe CPC version of a disarming Jagmeet-figure--we're not exactly talking about Leslyn Lewis-supporting Bible-thumpers here. Though yes, the lead shrunk in '19 and the Lib share grew, so no wonder Gladstone's giving it an open-seat try, and maybe w/hopes that the Orthodox vote can be as ‘containable’ as it is in comparable seats in the 416...
28/07/21 Stevo
The openly gay, very outspoken Melissa Lantsman might seem a poorer fit for this riding than the calm, mild-mannered Peter Kent, but she is a media-savvy Millennial (she's worked in radio and tv) and hits all the right Conservative notes on Israel, freedom of expression, and cancel culture. She may not manage Kent-level margins but it shouldn't be close.
21/05/21 Craig
Thornhill is a unique place. Despite being surrounded by Liberal strongholds and sharing similar demographics (except for religion), it has become one of the safest Conservative ridings in Ontario and probably the safest urban or suburban riding outside of the Prairies for them. There's no reason why that won't continue in this open seat, especially in light of the recent fighting between Israel and Palestine. Thornhill is extremely pro-Israel and will go to their strongest voice of support - the tepid support from the Liberals and hostility from many in the NDP do not fly at all here.
Even without Peter Kent, the Conservatives should continue to dominate among the Orthodox Jewish population, which makes up a good chunk of the riding. Regardless of what happens elsewhere in the GTA, there will continue to be a blue enclave on Yonge Street.
08/05/21 Chris N
Even with Peter Kent's retirement, this is a sure win for the CPC, and the safest CPC bet in the GTA.
07/05/21 LarryH
Longtime incumbent Peter Kent is retiring, so in theory, this would become a competitive race.
However, the Tories nominated quite possibly a future PM in Melissa Lantsman who is a massive asset for the party for a variety of reasons.
Thornhill is pretty reliably Conservative at the federal level and Lantsman defeated sitting MPP Gila Martow in the nomination by over 300 votes.
Safe Conservative.
Liberal Gladstone is a nice fellow though.
06/08/21 MF
Thornhill indeed stands out among GTA ridings: for over a decade been a very safe riding for the Conservatives. In the large Orthodox Jewish community the Conservatives run up margins similar to the rural Prairies, giving them an enormous advantage. Donald Trump would probably win Thornhill if he was the Conservative candidate.

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