Gladstone, Gary
	Greenfield, Samuel
	Lantsman, Melissa
	Mikanovsky, Daniella
	Razvi, Raz
Incumbent:
	Peter Kent

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			112719 110427 39819 38472 62.90 km² 1791.90/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Peter Kent **	29187	54.60%
	Gary Gladstone	18946	35.40%
	Sara Petrucci	3469	6.50%
	Josh Rachlis	1600	3.00%
	Nathan Bregman	217	0.40%
	Waseem Malik	77	0.10%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Peter Kent **	31911	58.60%
	Nancy Coldham	18395	33.80%
	Lorne Cherry	2814	5.20%
	Josh Rachlis	627	1.20%
	Gene Balfour	587	1.10%
	Margaret Leigh Fairbairn	157	0.30%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		29140	63.19%
		5299	11.49%
		10374	22.50%
		1141	2.47%
Other		160	0.35%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Thornhill    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Gila Martow *	28889	61.13%
	Ezra Tanen	9134	19.33%
	Sabi Ahsan	6985	14.78%
	Rachel Dokhoian	1043	2.21%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		16688	43.28%
		17228	44.68%
		3089	8.01%
		922	2.39%
Other		631	1.64%

	03/09/21	Will 184.149.37.144
It will be interesting to see, with Peter Kent's retirement, whether the Liberals can close the gap in this riding. I still expect the Conservatives to take this seat however. The NDP are obviously non-factors here.
	02/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
This riding has no incumbent as Peter Kent has retired , he was first elected in 2008 and the riding had been liberal before he was mp. although this riding has shifted more conservative in recent years provincially and federally . Melissa Lantzman is the new conservative candidate and Gary Gladstone back for the liberals. likely to stay cpc
	23/08/21	Drew613 198.103.96.11
I think Thornhill should be switched to TCTC. A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a sizable 14 point lead in the GTA and lead at 49% support York region. I always thought of Thornhill as more of a Peter Kent riding than a CPC stronghold. With Peter retiring, I think this one will be closer than many think. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
	04/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Let's not make too much of Lantsman as a ‘poor fit’; as dubious as the ‘Jewish cosmopolitanism’ trope might be, what informs it might explain why such a demo would be perfectly fine w/a Lantsman-style candidate, almost as a wouldbe CPC version of a disarming Jagmeet-figure--we're not exactly talking about Leslyn Lewis-supporting Bible-thumpers here. Though yes, the lead shrunk in '19 and the Lib share grew, so no wonder Gladstone's giving it an open-seat try, and maybe w/hopes that the Orthodox vote can be as ‘containable’ as it is in comparable seats in the 416...
	28/07/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
The openly gay, very outspoken Melissa Lantsman might seem a poorer fit for this riding than the calm, mild-mannered Peter Kent, but she is a media-savvy Millennial (she's worked in radio and tv) and hits all the right Conservative notes on Israel, freedom of expression, and cancel culture. She may not manage Kent-level margins but it shouldn't be close.
	21/05/21	Craig 24.233.238.158
Thornhill is a unique place. Despite being surrounded by Liberal strongholds and sharing similar demographics (except for religion), it has become one of the safest Conservative ridings in Ontario and probably the safest urban or suburban riding outside of the Prairies for them. There's no reason why that won't continue in this open seat, especially in light of the recent fighting between Israel and Palestine. Thornhill is extremely pro-Israel and will go to their strongest voice of support - the tepid support from the Liberals and hostility from many in the NDP do not fly at all here. Even without Peter Kent, the Conservatives should continue to dominate among the Orthodox Jewish population, which makes up a good chunk of the riding. Regardless of what happens elsewhere in the GTA, there will continue to be a blue enclave on Yonge Street.
	08/05/21	Chris N 24.36.32.209
Even with Peter Kent's retirement, this is a sure win for the CPC, and the safest CPC bet in the GTA.
	07/05/21	LarryH 66.11.178.249
Longtime incumbent Peter Kent is retiring, so in theory, this would become a competitive race. However, the Tories nominated quite possibly a future PM in Melissa Lantsman who is a massive asset for the party for a variety of reasons. Thornhill is pretty reliably Conservative at the federal level and Lantsman defeated sitting MPP Gila Martow in the nomination by over 300 votes. Safe Conservative. Liberal Gladstone is a nice fellow though.
	06/08/21	MF 70.27.132.108
Thornhill indeed stands out among GTA ridings: for over a decade been a very safe riding for the Conservatives. In the large Orthodox Jewish community the Conservatives run up margins similar to the rural Prairies, giving them an enormous advantage. Donald Trump would probably win Thornhill if he was the Conservative candidate.