Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:52:41

Constituency Profile


LaPointe, Viviane

Methé, Colette Andréa

Popescu, J. David

Robinson, David Robert

Symington, Ian

Verrelli, Nadia


Paul Lefebvre

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



857.51 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Paul Lefebvre ** 1964340.90%
Beth Mairs 1388528.90%
Pierre St-Amant 986420.60%
Bill Crumplin 32256.70%
Sean Paterson 8731.80%
Chanel Lalonde 2820.60%
Charlene Sylvestre 1350.30%
J. David Popescu 700.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Paul Lefebvre 2353447.40%
Paul Loewenberg 1379327.80%
Fred Slade 1047321.10%
David Robinson 15093.00%
Jean-Raymond Audet 1340.30%
Elizabeth Rowley 1020.20%
J. David Popescu 840.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3450.76%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jamie West 1738648.07%
Troy Crowder 840523.24%
Glenn Thibeault * 810822.42%
David Robinson 15044.16%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3481.03%

19/09/21 jeff316
The Liberals have promised the cash to save the university. And that's a wrap folks. It doesn't matter that they're 18+ months too late - no one truly concerned with this critical local issue is going to risk voting NDP and have this funding fall through because of a lack of someone on the winning team in Ottawa. Because people know the Liberals are ruthless enough to let that happen lest they lose. The NDP wasn't really ever in this (except for online hopefuls making wishes, not predictions) but any pretence is lost now.
14/09/21 NJam101
If the PPC surge is indeed true, it will likely pull away support from both the CPC and NDP. I feel that Sudbury will vote Liberal this time but the Laurentian University situation does give the NDP candidate some hope.
13/09/21 Physastr Master
The notion of Sudbury being a day-one Liberal call as an open seat is more than a little bizarre. It's been teetering on the brink between the NDP and Liberals for most of the election from polling aggregators, and while the momentum isn't necessarily with the NDP right now, the PPC surge has made the situation unstable enough to motivate this finally being made TCTC
02/09/21 Northern Voice
This is a definite TCTC and is a three way race thanks to a strong Conservative candidate. If I had to choose a front runner it would be the NDP. Trudeau is not popular here and Liberal candidate is unknown
27/08/21 Sam
Yeah, while I would still bet on the Liberals here if asked to pick, it only seems logical to put this into TCTC on raw poll figures (coupled with the lack of an incumbent) alone. Whilst it does act more in line with the rest of Ontario relative to its northern neighbours, that is still only in relative what it didn't show last time was that GTA area loyalty to the Liberals, and they did lose ground while the NDP held up. And if we're still talking about things in relative, there are GTA seats with resultantly bigger margins in the TCTC column.
27/08/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as Paul Lefebvre didn’t run again .Has typically been a liberal riding although ndp did win here in 2008-11 elections. With the ndp doing slightly better in the polls it’s a riding there likely to target this year. Conservatives have never won the riding and seem to be in the mid to low 20’s each election. Also all new candidates Viviane Lapointe liberal Nadia Verrelli ndp and Ian Symington conservative. So tough to say how this one is going to turn out.
16/08/21 jeff316
The NDP needs a 10%+ swing to beat the Liberals in this riding. Even with no incumbent, Verrelli is not going to make this happen. The mismanagement of Laurentian falls on Doug Ford, not Trudeau, and there just is no reason to see the Liberal vote collapse.
15/08/21 Marco Ricci
With the NDP up in some Ontario polls, and the Liberal incumbent Paul Lefebvre retiring, we could see a closer Liberal-NDP race here.
09/08/21 A.S.
What's so terminally ‘unpredictable’ about Sudbury? Compared to the eternally-contrarian Soo, it's had a relatively stable, mostly Lib-dominant history--the only blips in the federal pattern being Diane Marleau's defeat in '08, and perhaps the Libs' landslide comeback in '15. (Provincial can be quirkier, but seldom terribly out of line w/regional or province-wide trends.) Last time around, the consensus was that this was going Lib again, and it did not disappoint--maybe that the NDP posed as vigorous challenge as they did surprised a few, but they still didn't come within 10 points. (Or maybe that it was the rare Northern seat where the NDP went up and CPC went down--I suppose that's what Sudbury's ‘urbanity’ brings.) Though yes, I'm withholding a prediction now--but that's because it's an open seat, and acknowledging how the NDP narrowed the gap last time.
29/05/21 Libby Burgundy
1. Never assume the Bloc Quebecois is dead.
2. Never assume the Greens will actually match their polling.
3. Never, EVER, predict what will happen in Sudbury.

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