Election Prediction Project

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 16:54:49

Constituency Profile


Anber, David

Duncan, Eric

Kennedy, Trevor

Moquin, Denis

Warnock, Jeanie


Eric Duncan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2666.41 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Eric Duncan 2897653.90%
Heather Megill 1376725.60%
Kelsey Catherine Schmitz 767414.30%
Raheem Aman 21264.00%
Sabile Trimm 11682.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Guy Lauzon ** 2709151.10%
Bernadette Clement 2045238.50%
Patrick Burger 43328.20%
Elaine Kennedy 11912.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1510.32%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jim Mcdonell * 2678061.51%
Marc Benoit 941621.63%
Heather Megill 538612.37%
Elaine Kennedy 15963.67%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6021.51%

14/09/21 R.O.
One of the surprises post 2019 election was the rise of Eric Duncan within the cpc caucus. Who was virtually unknown before but most who follow Ottawa politics would be familiar with him by now. The riding has been cpc since 2004. Also odd former liberal candidate appointed to the senate as an independent despite running as a liberal here.
31/08/21 GritBusters
Over the past decades now, the Liberals have shed too much of the Cornwall vote to the NDP and too much of the rural vote to the Tories to be viable in this riding.
Consequently, this riding will stay Tory barring a divided right or some other significant partisan realignment in federal politics.
30/06/21 Negative Inference
If the Liberal thinks they have ANY chance of picking this up, her worship would have stay put and not accept an appointment to the upper chamber.
Plus, Duncan as an openly gay conservative MP from outside of the urban centres is too good of a symbol for the party not to protect. Easy hold.
23/06/21 Stevo
Seems strange to me that the Conservative vote proved more resilient here in Stormont than in Leeds-Grenville the past two elections. In any case, doesn't appear that the conservative strength in rural Eastern Ontario that began with the Alliance in 2000 is abating.
08/08/21 A.S.
Yeah, Bernadette Clement in the Senate adds an interesting twist to the local Liberal picture, even if it has (and will have) little to do with actual *electoral* politics--but had *she* decided to give it another electoral go, the notion of a SDSG race btw/an openly gay Conservative and a female POC Liberal (even if the former was heavily favoured) would certainly have thrown a lot of people for a loop. As disarming a representative as Eric Duncan is, though, *somebody* in Cornwall has got to figure out a formula for not being an eternal go-with-the-flow sitting duck for those Putin-esque Conservative margins in Dundas County. (And much as in Leeds-Grenville, nothing-to-lose ‘voting one's conscience’ led to a surprisingly high NDP figure in '19--come to think of it, Cornwall *is* NDP-esque, and voted for the party provincially in the 70s. But now we're *really* getting ahead of ourselves.)
06/08/21 Thomas K
The Liberal campaign strategy of making the Conservatives appear socially conservative is not going to yield much here. Indeed, the gay conservative MP here has been quite vocal in the house of commons regarding various social shortcomings of the Liberals.
Guaranteed CPC hold

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