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Spadina-Fort York
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:06:11
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Vaughan, Adam


Incumbent:

Adam Vaughan

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

115506
82480

75838
67864

12.47 km²
9266.10/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Adam Vaughan ** 3382255.80%
Diana Yoon 1218820.10%
Frank Fang 1068017.60%
Dean Maher 31745.20%
Robert Stewart 6721.10%
Marcela Ramirez 1140.20%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Adam Vaughan 3014154.70%
Olivia Chow ** 1504727.30%
Sabrina Zuniga 867315.70%
Sharon Danley 11372.10%
Michael Nicula 910.20%
Nick Lin 590.10%


2011 Results (redistributed)

771320.86%
1835149.64%
901424.38%
15414.17%
Other 3500.95%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Trinity-Spadina
   (93.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Toronto Centre
   (6.85% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Chris Glover 2467749.62%
Han Dong * 1177023.67%
Iris Yu 1083421.79%
Rita Bilerman 18153.65%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1666048.30%
602417.46%
921626.71%
18575.38%
Other 7392.14%


29/05/21 KXS
99.247.196.32
Very safe riding for the governing party. They won this by a large margin in 2015 and 2019.
Adam Vaughan is also a popular local politician.
29/05/21 Libby Burgundy
198.91.168.152
While this may be Olivia Chow's old stomping ground, the trajectory is all wrong for the NDP. In 2019, the Liberals got more than twice as many votes here as the NDP. Barring an absolutely seismic shift in the polls, there probably won't be any surprises on the lakeshore this time around.
26/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
This should be a safe Liberal seat. For a non-cabinet minister, Adam Vaughan has a high profile, certainly in the Toronto media market. The NDP has pockets of support in the less affluent Trinity-Bellwoods and David Crombie Park areas, but it won't be enough to pose a serious threat to the Liberals.



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