Election Prediction Project

Simcoe North
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:20:54

Constituency Profile


Brooks, Krystal

Chambers, Adam

Durnford, Janet-Lynne

Emo, Russ

Makk, Stephen

Wesley-Esquimaux, Cynthia


Bruce Stanton

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1785.32 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bruce Stanton ** 2724143.40%
Gerry Hawes 1931030.80%
Angelique Belcourt 885014.10%
Valerie Powell 58829.40%
Stephen Makk 11541.80%
Chris Brown 3410.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bruce Stanton ** 2483643.50%
Liz Riley 2271839.80%
Richard Banigan 603710.60%
Peter Stubbins 25434.50%
Jacob Kearey-Moreland 6181.10%
Scott Whittaker 3190.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3000.58%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Simcoe North
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jill Dunlop 2523646.92%
Elizabeth Van Houtte 1507828.03%
Gerry Marshall 952317.7%
Valerie Powell 36326.75%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


24/08/21 R.O.
No incumbent as Bruce Stanton retired after being mp since 2006. This riding had been liberal in the 90’s although before that was a solid conservative riding for decades. Adam Chambers is the new conservative candidate beating out several others for the nomination.
04/08/21 A.S.
A daring ‘no prediction’, even if it's piggybacking off open-seat opportunism--but as much as O'Toole might seek to appeal to homegrown Leacockian moderation, he still has to fight off the radicals both within his political wing and within this riding. And being at the edge of the Shield, Simcoe North isn't *entirely* devoid of that frontierish Hillier/Sloan element of radical-populist orneriness--and it might be beyond O'Toole to either keep that element at bay or prevent the ‘Mariposa moderates’ from migrating to the less wracked safe-choice Libs, much as they did in the Chretien era. And given how some of the historically sturdiest Con parts (Oro-Medonte, mostly) are no longer in the riding, it's a challenge.
07/05/21 Teddy Boragina
Nice to see the site back in action again; been submitting for over half my life now!
This is where I live, and it's almost certainly going to go blue again. O'Toole is explicitly trying to appeal to precisely the kind of conservative and Conservative who lives in this riding. As a riding, we are pro-mask, and moderate. By letting people know he does not support the radicals, O'Toole is telling people here that they have a safe choice in him. Given the riding's history, I see no reason why there would be a change. At least, not at the time of submission, in the spring of 2021.

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