Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:06:07

Constituency Profile


Clayton, Nicholas

Dowdall, Terry

Gillies, Lucas

Minatel, Adam

Munro, Bren

Stouffer, Ken


Terry Dowdall

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1863.34 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Terry Dowdall 3281243.50%
Lorne Kenney 2392531.70%
Sherri Jackson 858911.40%
Ilona Matthews 846211.20%
Richard Sommer 14161.90%
Tony D'Angelo 3050.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kellie Leitch ** 3061246.60%
Mike MacEachern 2535238.60%
David Matthews 63329.60%
JoAnne Fleming 29234.40%
Len Noordegraaf 5280.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 880715.94%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jim Wilson * 3409455.93%
David Matthews 1344422.05%
Dan Hambly 878014.4%
Jesseca Perry 41926.88%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


14/09/21 C B
I think, although it’s composition has changed considerably, this riding should be watched more closely. In 1993, this was the only riding in Ontario that didn’t elect a Liberal. It elected a Reform MP. While Reform and the PPC are very different parties, and the political climate is indeed very different, this riding will give us an indication early on as to if the PPC is doing well. Wildflower - perhaps your predictions would be taken a little more seriously if you didn’t apply your personal political opinions to the entire electorate at large. There are people, believe it or not, who don’t share your views.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Always been Conservative,but things could change with the right wing vote splitting.
mark this one as a toss up because some people want more action on climate change & they dont feel comfortable paying user fees and having a 2 tier healthcare system
17/08/21 R.O.
Terry Dowdall is a first term mp but Simcoe Grey is a long time conservative riding in rural Ontario so would expect him to hold it even as it grows and becomes less rural
04/08/21 A.S.
Finally, after the successive Guergis and Leitch debacles, Simcoe-Grey has a chance to be the sensible-shoes *boring* Conservative riding it was always meant to be (and indeed, long seemed to be provincially until Jim Wilson was tripped up by his own seamy underbelly). The biggest possible threat would be through PPC-induced undermining--and btw/a Reform/Alliancey past and the notion of the unmasked-and-proud-of-it partying at Wasaga, it can't be counted out here. But then we'd be looking at Simcoe seats won with around a third of the vote or less--which seems a little far-fetched.
27/05/21 MF
With the shift of the affluent and educated toward the Liberals, Collingwood and the Blue Mountains have become the most reliably Liberal part of the riding (both John Tory and former Toronto mayor John Sewell have vacation homes in the area, reflecting its ‘establishmentarian’ character). The Conservatives however win Wasaga Beach (the Jersey Shore of Canada?) and the rural areas. They should be able to hold on unless the Conservative campaign really tanks.

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