Election Prediction Project

Scarborough Southwest
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:56:19

Constituency Profile


Arale, Guled

Bhuiyan, Mohsin

Blair, Bill

Cain, Amanda

Pache, Ramona

Poon, David Edward-Ooi


Bill Blair

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



27.96 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bill Blair ** 2896557.20%
Kimberly Fawcett Smith 1050220.70%
Keith McCrady 786515.50%
Amanda Cain 24774.90%
Italo Eratostene 5901.20%
Simon Luisi 2360.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bill Blair 2558652.50%
Dan Harris ** 1157423.70%
Roshan Nallaratnam 1034721.20%
Tommy Taylor 12592.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 200.05%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Scarborough Southwest
   (93.49% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Doly Begum 1983545.66%
Gary Ellis 1356531.22%
Lorenzo Berardinetti * 822818.94%
David Del Grande 11742.7%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5301.46%

08/09/21 R.O.
Bill Blair was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. This riding has mostly been a liberal riding in recent elections but had been ndp in 2011 and a swing riding decades ago. Provincially still somewhat of a swing riding as it had been pc in the 90’s , liberal for a number of year and went ndp in 2018 provincial election. Oddly the cpc didn’t bring back Kimberly Fawcett Smith as a candidate she lost the nomination to Mohsin Bhuiyan a new relatively unknown candidate.
28/07/21 A.S.
SSW's recent history has been as a Liberal stronghold, but for much of that time not as a terribly illustrious one (that is, notorious Lib socon Tom Wappel being its rep for 2 whole decades). At least Bill Blair is more cabinet-mainstream than maverick-outsider, i.e. less incentive to ‘stop him’--though it's still the likeliest of Scarborough's ridings to put the NDP in 2nd. (I guess it's a sign of Justin-era electoral maturity that the local Libs don't require the crutch of ‘Bloc Scarberia’ crankiness any longer.)
04/06/21 Chris N
Bill Blair was re-elected in 2019 by a large margin. Other than the orange wave in 2011, Scarborough Southwest has historically been a federal Liberal stronghold. I don't expect that to change this election.

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