Chen, Shaun
	Khan, Sheraz
	Love, Christina
	Moore, David
	Shah, Fazal
Incumbent:
	Shaun Chen

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			98800 101080 30273 29411 30.41 km² 3249.40/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Shaun Chen **	20911	53.60%
	David Kong	11838	30.30%
	Yan Chen	5039	12.90%
	Avery Velez	796	2.00%
	Jude Guerrier	370	0.90%
	Janet Robinson	83	0.20%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Shaun Chen	18904	48.20%
	Ravinder Malhi	10737	27.40%
	Rathika Sitsabaiesan **	8648	22.10%
	Eleni MacDonald	579	1.50%
	Raphael Rosch	164	0.40%
	Aasia Khatoon	156	0.40%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		11959	33.38%
		12673	35.37%
		10344	28.87%
		578	1.61%
Other		277	0.77%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Scarborough-Rouge River    (92.53% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Scarborough-Agincourt    (7.47% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Raymond Cho *	17413	51.05%
	Dwayne Morgan	8320	24.39%
	Chin Lee	7519	22.04%
	Nicole Peltier	543	1.59%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		12365	40.07%
		9623	31.18%
		8067	26.14%
		494	1.60%
Other		313	1.01%

	16/08/21	Sam 188.28.207.33
This riding actually surprised me last time - I thought it would be far closer, and not just within the margins of overestimating the CPC in Toronto and the wider area. The fact that it didn't and that the margin was what it was is enough for me to personally predict the Liberals will hold this. What I probably didn't factor in last time was that beneath the Chinese plurality is a significant Tamil population, that shifted heavily to the Liberals in 2015 (hence the poor performance of the incumbent) and then further in 2019, solidifying the NDP's decline and the Liberal dominance.
	28/07/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
On paper, the easternmost of the ‘Steeles belt’ that *could* be likeliest to fall to CPC within the 416 (maybe as seen through the prism of Raymond Cho's provincial incumbency). But the 23-point gap in '19 suggests slim-to-nil likelihood--essentially, everything E of Markham Rd does an awfully good job of cancelling out that which lies to the W.