Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:15:00

Constituency Profile


Balasingham, Arjun

Johnson, Mark

Julius, Larisa

Muraven, Eric

Yip, Jean


Jean Yip

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



21.37 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jean Yip ** 2111550.50%
Sean Hu 1549237.00%
Larisa Julius 36368.70%
Randi Ramdeen 10502.50%
Anthony Internicola 5211.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Arnold Chan ** 2158751.90%
Bin Chang 1580238.00%
Laura Patrick 32637.90%
Debra Scott 5701.40%
Jude Coutinho 3340.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Aris Babikian 1858250.4%
Soo Wong * 1042928.29%
Tasleem Riaz 643417.45%
Lydia West 6351.72%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3861.12%

16/09/21 Drew613
Another GTA-specific poll has come out, this time from Nanos, showing not just the same things as Campaign and Mainstreet, but with an even bigger 20 point lead over the CPC. They, like the others, are also confirming that the NDP aren't making any inroads in Toronto vs the 2019 election. The NDP's growth in Ontario is everywhere but the GTA. As such, I predict the Liberals will continue to hold Scarborough-Agincourt after Monday night. It wasn't that close in 2019 and it won't be much closer in 2021. https://www.cp24.com/news/housing-continues-to-top-covid-19-as-key-ballot-box-issue-for-gta-voters-poll-1.5586585
16/09/21 AL
Yip is going to win this riding but may go to the conservatives in the future. Cantonese voters still outnumber Mandarin voters in Scarborough-Agincourt. Some Mandarin voters are leaning more conservatives these days. Many Cantonese are still Liberal but are beginning to shift conservative too. However, the demographics of the riding, being very ethnic and lots of immigrants with a mix of working class and middle class homes makes the riding still ripe for a more potentially Liberal leaning voter rather conservative. Social issues may shape political views here as well, where many may be socially conservative but fiscally Liberal.
11/09/21 Drew613
Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Toronto proper. With a lead like that, none of the 416 ridings are at risk of flipping. This is also almost unchanged (well within the MoE) from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. Scarborough-Agincourt = Liberal hold, even if it ends up being the CPC's best showing in Toronto east of the Don Valley Parkway. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view
06/09/21 R.O.
This riding has actually seen some of the closer races in Toronto between the liberals and conservatives in the last couple elections . with liberals typically holding the riding with 10 % or slightly more of the vote . all the other ridings in Scarborough were won with much larger margins last election . riding has shifted more conservative similar to ridings like markham or Richmond bc. The cpc has a new candidate this year Mark Johnson facing off against liberal mp Jean Yip.
28/07/21 A.S.
You might as well say that if the Conservatives are poised to win ridings *anywhere* in Toronto, you're looking at PM O'Toole--because as it now stands, this is definitely one of the 2-3 likeliest to fall (never mind that it *didn't* fall in '11). However, after a byelection scare to replace her late husband, Yip basically held his '15 margin in '19--though yes, still, Sean Hu turned in the best CPC share in the 416; but I can't see how much better it gets than that.
05/07/21 KXS
I highly doubt the Conservatives will be winning ridings in the 416 with their current polling.
Of course, this could change during the campaign. But if the Conservatives are poised to win ridings in Scarborough, we are looking at O'Toole becoming Prime Minister.

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