Election Prediction Project

Sault Ste. Marie
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:51:40

Constituency Profile


Makowski, Kasper

Morin-Strom, Marie

Sheehan, Terry

Spina, Sonny


Terry Sheehan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5607.03 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Terry Sheehan ** 1628439.10%
Sonny Spina 1340732.20%
Sara McCleary 945922.70%
Geo McLean 18094.30%
Amy Zuccato 7411.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Terry Sheehan 1958244.80%
Bryan Hayes ** 1361531.10%
Skip Morrison 954321.80%
Kara Flannigan 9342.10%
Mike Taffarel 830.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1380.34%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Sault Ste. Marie
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ross Romano * 1349842.03%
Michele Mccleave-Kennedy 1308440.74%
Jaclynne Hamel 31999.96%
Kara Flannigan 10443.25%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 1150.38%

14/09/21 NJam101
The Sault is a place that often bucks trends and has surprises. It's not somewhere where an incumbent can be comfortable. My prediction is that Terry Sheehan will be re-elected. But I won't be surprised if he isn't.
11/09/20 PY
Had my parents not decided to strike out on their own in the late 70s, I would have been born in the Soo (instead of three hours away in Espanola) and still brought up with the same middle-of-the road values that other posters might not believe are as prevalent there today.
I'll hand it to the Conservatives, though...in recent years, they've been able to tap into the anger and frustration of those who know or have seen young people leave for distant shores (be it Sudbury, Toronto, other major Canadian centres, the States or even overseas) even as others have made the move there instead, like my best childhood friend did fifteen years ago. I certainly didn't have a problem with Erin O'Toole bringing this very issue up late last year; it's something that will need to be more thoroughly addressed beyond awarding FedNor grants and signing various agreements with any of the other levels of government (or both of them).
However, it's not all doom and gloom as Algoma Steel was purchased by Legato Merger Corp, a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) in May and will eventually be spun off into a publicly traded company again (and interlisted, no less - NASDAQ/TSX).
Make no mistake, people aren't pining for Harper; they want to make the most sense out of the world beyond the Soo and to be assured that they're not going to be left behind. I believe it'll boil down to whomever can best offer the best post-COVID future.
TCTC, especially given that there's no Green candidate.
05/09/21 seasaw
This is one riding that will kick the incumbent out. It's not because the local MP has done a bad job, it's because the policies of JT, haven't served the riding well, so even if the CPC were to lose the election, they'll win this seat
04/09/21 KXS
This is one of those ridings where I won't be surprised if the Liberals finish first, second or third.
Conservatives have been doing better in the North over the past few election cycles - esp. compared to the 90s and 00s.
PPC is a wildcard. I could see them going up to 5% here.
Also, notable is there is no Green candidate in this riding.
31/08/21 R.O.
Terry Sheehan was first elected in 2015, this riding looked more promising for the liberals before they called the election. Sonny Spina is back as the cpc candidate after a reasonably strong finish in 2019. Ndp have a new candidate Marie Morin Storm . this riding has a history of being a swing riding and elected a lot of different mp’s over the years so at this point I’d say too close to call.
22/08/21 RBL
Lot of blue collar workers to lose their jobs from Electric Arc transformation of the local steel mill. Spina and CPC to protect those workers (or at least retrain them and move them into hydro infrastructure). Many people fed up with bill C75 and the rampant crime issues that have resulted, something CPC has vowed to reverse. Cheers.
17/08/21 CJR
This is a definite pick-up for the CPC. Sonny Spina increased the CPC vote last time out and decreased the Lib vote by 5K. There is a common sense attitude in the Soo that doesn't much abide by social engineering and the condescension of JT. People can see what a train wreck higher interest rates are going to cause and are already feeling the inflation pinch. The Lib track record on everything from overspending to international relations, to messing up initial vaccine acquisition, has been terrible. People see that it is in their own self interest to change the government to one that will be much more responsible.
14/08/21 Sam
The national/Ontario polls would probably give the Liberals an edge here, with them most likely to win, then the CPC, then the NDP, but just because this is an urban riding does not mean that the same trends applying to the 905 apply here. I'd pick the Liberals to win still, but I think TCTC is a perfectly reasonable call.
09/08/21 A.S.
In the spirit of the Soo as a node of electoral abnormality, Sheehan's reign can perhaps be labelled as ‘abnormally normal’--just another safe-middle Lib holding an Ontario riding. Therefore don't be surprised if whatever happens here, it tilts against broader trends. (That said, it may be the prime N Ontario representative of blue-collar-Con trending, i.e. some of those westward steelworker polls that were once NDP strongholds can now tilt blue.)
12/07/21 seasaw
This one could go Liberal, CPC or it might even go NDP, though not as tough to predict as Kenora, it is still difficult to call this one

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