Election Prediction Project

Toronto-St. Paul's
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:58:58

Constituency Profile


Bennett, Carolyn

Coles, Sidney

De Luna, Phil

Osadchuk, Stephanie

Remedios, Peter


Carolyn Bennett

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13.10 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Carolyn Bennett ** 3249454.30%
Jae Truesdell 1293321.60%
Alok Mukherjee 944215.80%
Sarah Climenhaga 40426.80%
John Kellen 9231.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Carolyn Bennett ** 3148155.30%
Marnie MacDougall 1537627.00%
Noah Richler 838614.70%
Kevin Farmer 17293.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2670.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. Paul's
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jill Andrew 1884335.96%
Jess Spindler 1749833.39%
Andrew Kirsch 1378026.3%
Teresa Pun 16903.23%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5211.18%

17/09/21 SM
The NDP candidate remains on the ballot, which may cause some confusion among a small group who might have considered switching. That is, I do not see a real uptick in votes for other candidates because the NDP candidate has been dropped. The only point that might prove interesting in this safest of Liberal ridings is whether the e Conservatives on the Green candidate takes second. The Green candidate has put up an admirably active campaign and has many signs to prove it, including in front of opulent Forest Hill homes. While some might chuckle at the idea of the Green candidate taking second, recall that this riding provincially went NDP and the Liberal candidate is very long in the tooth and performed questionably as a cabinet minister. A certain kind of Liberal voter who feels that the seat is a safe Liberal win, which it is, could send a message by voting Green. Anyway, Liberals will win, hence the prediction. And so we are clear, I live in this riding.
16/09/21 AL
The NDP Candidate Sidney Coles resigning after unacceptable comments on Isreal & vaccines. The remarks seen as antisemitic and now leaves a bunch of NDP voters in limbo. Most of these NDP voters will most likely splinter off to other parties such as the Liberals and Greens. However, some of them (a small number) might even vote Peoples party of Canada or Conservatives. Stephanie Osadchuk Mazzacano only benefits from this and may come in second place rather then third place as some was suggesting before. We may see conservative levels of support back up to similar numbers of 2015 and 2011 here. Bennett is still going to win this by a large margin. Back in the late 1960s, 1970s and 1980s to early 1990s this riding was a true two-way vicious battle between the Liberals and Conservatives. Swinging back and forth.
15/09/21 Marco Ricci
NDP candidate Sidney Coles has resigned after anti-Semitic social media comments surfaced online. It's hard to say whether it will make an impact here, but it could shift a few NDP votes to the Liberals:
04/09/21 seasaw
This one is safe for the Liberals. This is more of a blue Liberal, red Tory riding, and Ford Nation has little appeal here. But getting back to the federal election, with O'Toole being more like a red Tory, we may see a rise in CPC support, but nowhere close to what is needed to come even close to winning this riding. Maybe in the future, when this becomes an open seat, but maybe not. For now, Bennett doesn't even have to campaign to keep this one for the Liberals
03/09/21 jeff316
Bennett will win. But her campaign is weak. With Jagmeet appealing to the increasingly lefty west end of the riding, O'Toole moderating the Conservatives to better appeal to the affluent elements, and Bennett starting to wear on her constituents, the results could look a lot like 2011.
23/08/21 R.O.
Long time liberal riding in downtown Toronto , held by the ndp provincially but that win seen as a fluke. Carolyn bennett likely to hold although less clear why she decided to run again.
28/07/21 Stevo
Carolyn Bennett, like Judy Sgro and Hedy Fry, is another one of these relics of the Chretien/Martin era and decades past their sell-by date, but saved time and again by virtue of their safe-seat privilege.
18/07/21 A.S.
Interestingly, '19 *wasn't* the first time the ‘united left’ outpolled the Conservatives in St. Paul's--they managed to do so in 2004 as well, though it's understandable that few noticed. And don't be surprised if the NDP assumes 2nd place *outright* next time around--one might argue, a poetically ‘orange’ electoral response to Bennett's text to Puglaas. Another sleeper detail: for all that St. Paul's is discussed in terms of Lib ultra-safety, the recent federal Lib ceiling has only been around the 54-55% range (except for 58% in, once more, 2004). It's divided opposition demographics and dynamics, not monolithic Lib-red vote, that's kept the party in all of this time.
15/05/21 MF
The Westmount of Toronto, St. Paul's is a super-safe ‘Brahmin Liberal’ riding. It looks like Carolyn Bennett is running again, but this would be the perfect riding for Mark Carney should he decide to enter federal politics. Also of note: not only have the Conservatives long ceased to be electable in St. Paul's, but more voted for progressive opposition parties (i.e. NDP + Green) than for the Conservatives for the first time in the last federal election.
10/05/21 Chris N
This is a very safe Liberal seat that has stayed red federally since 1993. The Liberals would need a national Kim Campbell-level wipe out to lose St. Paul's.

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