Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:57:20

Constituency Profile


Crawley, Peter

Dookeran, Nira

Hua, Kevin

Poilievre, Pierre

Roy, Gustave


Pierre Poilievre

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1177.85 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Pierre Poilievre ** 3214746.30%
Chris Rodgers 2651838.20%
Kevin Hua 64799.30%
Gordon Kubanek 34234.90%
Alain Musende 7921.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Poilievre 2776246.90%
Chris Rodgers 2591343.70%
Kc Larocque 36326.10%
Deborah Coyne 19323.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (59.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (40.81% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Ottawa South
   (0.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Goldie Ghamari 2579851.33%
Courtney Potter 1130822.5%
Theresa Qadri 976819.44%
Gordon Kubanek 19853.95%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3080.78%

05/09/21 Wildflower
Always has been conservative, and the voters dont like higher taxes. Since Pierre Poilevre was one of the leadership Candidate for Leadership of the Conservative Party .
On the other hand, most people do not want a 2 tier healthcare system, and want more action on climate change .
Hard to say because the NDP, liberals are both running good Candidates this time around, and people party could bite into the Conservative vote to cause a liberal or NDP to come up through the middle
I would mark this as a toss up to make it interesting
03/09/21 Matt B.
This is a safe CPC riding. CPC signage dominates and polling indicates Pierre Poilievre will cruise into a third term. It is a mix of suburban and rural, leaning heavily rural. The riding was reconstituted in 2015, but the elements which were incorporated usually went blue over the last century (with a few exceptions).
31/08/21 Drew613
Six weeks ago when the Liberals had a 15 point lead in the polls in Ontario, I would have this down as TCTC. However, it's pretty clear now that this will be a CPC hold and Pierre will in all likelihood to be the lone standing CPCer from the NCR.
23/08/21 R.O.
Pierre Poliever was first elected in 2004 in the old Nepean Carleton riding so the riding has grown somewhat and changed boundaries. he’s one of the higher profile opposition mp’s and likely he holds this riding.
20/08/21 DurhamDave
A CPC staffer once described Skippy as having ‘anti-charisma’. This is one of the safest ridings in Eastern Ontario for the CPC, so he will be here for a very long time barring a Liberal 2011-esque disaster for the Cons.
28/07/21 Stevo
Pierre Poilièvre is wildly popular with the grassroots of his party and very effective in Opposition. The Liberals would love to take him down, and even briefly flirted (based on online rumours) with the idea of running Mark Carney here. This being the Ottawa valley, the Liberals will always have some strength, but it would take a
20/05/21 Craig
The last frontier in Ottawa for the Conservatives continues to grow and urbanize, although somewhat surprisingly the margin over 2015 improved for Poilievre. His high profile is a positive, however, he has been sidelined by O'Toole which may be a negative and he is seen as an "attack dog" which isn't exactly beneficial here.
I do think the Liberals cannot be entirely ruled out, especially if they improve on 2019. The demographics here - generally highly educated and affluent - are in their favour, however there are still rural areas that remain strongly Conservative. It will be a tough race here.
08/08/21 A.S.
I'll give Skippy another chance, but I'm *almost* willing to withhold--and the fact that I'm momentarily not withholding has to do with him more than doubling his margin in '19 despite growth which on paper didn't ‘favour’ him. But the broader O'Toole-era CPC problems endure; and Skippy, of course, has his own enduring ‘unlikeable representative of an unlikeable party’ stigma. Of course, it were a more squarely ‘hinterland’ riding rather than a growing rurban-metropolitan seat, I'd hand this to him w/more confidence--still, for him to fall would require the CPC version of Dion/Iggy tailspin attrition and rump-reduction. Almost like, if he goes, O'Toole is sure to go, too (and O'Toole *does* represent a sorta-similar riding relative to the GTA)

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