Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:57:15

Constituency Profile


Ainsworth, David

Gallant, Cheryl

Klietsch, Stefan

Lariviere, Michael

Mills, Cyndi

Primeau, Jodie


Cheryl Gallant

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



11464.88 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Cheryl Gallant ** 3108052.70%
Ruben Marini 1153219.60%
Eileen Jones-Whyte 878614.90%
Ian Pineau 32305.50%
David Ainsworth 14632.50%
Dan Criger 11251.90%
Dheerendra Kumar 9171.60%
Robert Cherrin 3580.60%
Stefan Klietsch 2660.50%
Jonathan Davis 2000.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Cheryl Gallant ** 2619545.80%
Jeff Lehoux 1866632.70%
Hector Clouthier 630011.00%
Dan McCarthy 48938.60%
Stefan Klietsch 11051.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 961118.70%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

John Yakabuski * 3335069.19%
Ethel Lavalley 806616.73%
Jackie Agnew 47019.75%
Anna Dolan 14362.98%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8812.13%

07/09/21 R.O.
Cheryl Gallant was first elected in this riding in 2000, has never generated much positive press outside the riding yet wins the riding itself by large margins. Just over 50 % last time , perhaps lower than expected due to the high number of votes for fringe and independent candidates last time. Outside of Pembroke the riding has few urban polls so a difficult riding for ndp or liberals to get traction in now days.
05/09/21 Wildflower
I think the afghan issue is a problem in this riding because of the military base
Chretien loyalist Mac Harb held this for a decade for the Libs and former Ottawa Mayor Marion's son Paul (R.I.P.) held it for the NDP. MacEwen's campaign has been effective and competent, yes, yet Paul won as much for Marion's legacy as for any NDP policy. Naqvi's biz rep and the U of O (mostly Liberal) block of votes will see him through this time around. If no workable minority governing arrangement is established, though, expect NDP to take the riding in the election that quickly follows.
09/08/21 A.S.
Re Gallant as ‘media-grabber’: she's probably been overshadowed by the adjacent Sloan/Hillier element as of late, but it's not like she's changed or anything. I don't know how RNP became Crazification Central in Ontario--sooner or later, whether it be through Petawawa military cosmopolitanism, or Arnprior's Ottawa-satelliteism, or Toronto expatriates seeking out the Madawaska, there's got to be *some* formula for diluting the crazy. (And it's not just Gallant; it's also through the insane number of candidates, including *four* independents, trying their luck in '19--as if Hec Clouthier had been blown to pieces.)
31/07/21 Stevo
Along with Scott Reid, one of two Alliance victors in Ontario in 2000. Cheryl Gallant has this seat for as long as she wishes. It helps too that she's no longer the media grabber that she used to be.
20/05/21 Craig
Cheryl Gallant may be very unpopular among Liberal and NDP supporters in urban areas (and even many Red Tories who have wanted her out of the caucus) but she's held Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke for over 20 years. No matter what she does, it doesn't hurt her at all here. Being on the right of the party also insulates herself from the PPC.
A very socially conservative riding that also has a tendency to break against the tide; the median voter here is far to the right of the median Ontario voter so she should have the seat as long as she wants it. As long as the Liberals keep focusing on urban issues and positions that have majority support among them, they can forget about winning here.

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