Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-29 13:44:03

Constituency Profile


Chisu, Corneliu

Higdon, Eileen

Mantle, Jacob

O'Connell, Jennifer


Jennifer O'Connell

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



652.50 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jennifer O'Connell ** 3238751.00%
Cyma Musarat 1846229.10%
Eileen Higdon 758211.90%
Peter Forint 37996.00%
Corneliu Chisu 12652.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jennifer O'Connell 2975750.30%
Corneliu Chisu ** 2259138.20%
Pamela Downward 54469.20%
Anthony Jordan Navarro 13652.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 960.20%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Pickering-Scarborough East
   (55.88% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (25.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (18.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Peter Bethlenfalvy 2244742.2%
Nerissa Cariño 1703332.02%
Ibrahim Daniyal 1085120.4%
Adam Narraway 21053.96%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5151.13%

21/08/21 R.O.
Not necessary your typical 905 riding , mostly pickering suburban area but also includes a large rural portion north to Uxbridge . Jennifer O’donnell has been the liberal mp since 2015, Jacob Mantle a former town councillor from Uxbridge is the new conservative candidate. Corneliu Chisu the 2011 cpc mp for Pickering Scarborough East is running for the peoples party. like to see how the race plays out in Ontario before making a prediction here.
20/08/21 DurhamDave
The LPC got over 50% of the vote here in the last two elections. Unless they have a night like they did in 2011, I can't see them losing here.
12/08/21 Thomas K
Jennifer O'Connell is one of the most toxic and obstructively partisan Liberal MPs in the House of Commons. That being said, this seat barely went Conservative in 2011, so it is quite likely she will be returned to parliament despite her behaviour.
06/08/21 A.S.
It did take a Liberal collapse in '11 to flip the former Pickering-Scarborough East blue; but remember that they had a popular incumbent in Dan McTeague, while the stronger Lib parts were in Scarborough East--not to mention that the redistribution which removed Scarborough East also appended Uxbridge from O'Toole's Durham, thus upping the ‘natural’ Con quotient considerably. Still, the trajectory has continued to be in a Lib direction within the Pickering parts, and the present margin's a bit high for any regional O'Toole coattails to take effect.
28/07/21 Dr Bear
Took a liberal collapse in 2011 to flip this blue. Highly unlikely that will happen after the liberals got over 50% in both 2015 and 2019. East Liberal hold.

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