Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 22:41:47

Constituency Profile


Bowers, Robert M.

Ferreri, Michelle

Lachica, Joy

Lawton, Paul

Monsef, Maryam

White, Chanté


Maryam Monsef

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3025.15 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Maryam Monsef ** 2740039.30%
Michael Skinner 2435734.90%
Candace Shaw 1187217.00%
Andrew MacGregor 49307.10%
Alexander Murphy 8901.30%
Robert M Bowers 1800.30%
Ken Ranney 1720.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Maryam Monsef 2915943.80%
Michael Skinner 2333535.10%
Dave Nickle 1243718.70%
Doug Mason 14802.20%
Toban Leckie 1310.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2680.47%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
   (6.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Dave Smith 2290437.68%
Sean Conway 2051833.75%
Jeff Leal * 1494624.59%
Gianne Broughton 20243.33%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6351.19%

19/09/21 Drew613
@prognosticator15, Peterborough-Kawartha is the ultimate bellwether riding. Every election except 1980 has seen this riding elect the candidate from the party that forms government (see: https://globalnews.ca/news/8177425/peterborough-kawartha-federal-election-bellwether/). The polls are showing that Liberals are clearly heading for victory nationally (even if it's only a reduced minority), so I'm going predict the ultimate bellwether stays that way this time around, even if Monsef wins an even narrower squeaker than in 2019.
18/09/21 prognosticator15
Alias Philip comments below are interesting, but I think it is now safe to put this riding in Conservative column. To think one vaccine instead of two changes the dynamics here is a weak argument, I think, and is mostly for those who already accept Justin's vaccine scaremongering - surely, Lib scare strategies tended to be partly effective historically (ex. two-tier health system, with Red Tories not really even pushing one now), but it's unlikely this year's Lib rude vaccine scare strategy works that well. I am not sure it's a bellweather riding either: more than anything, sharp anti-Lib feelings and Eastern Ontario pro-Cons dynamics may be decisive factors now. Monsef's reveal of extreme views on a policy issue complicates her troubles, but she would probably lose anyway.
17/09/21 Alias Philip Lee McClennan
To be a bellwether riding, you must not just have demographics on your side: you must have a history of prioritizing the party leader well over the local candidate. And even if that weren't so, in Ptbo we now have a situation where each of the two frontrunners have made significant faux-pas.
First Monsef, with her ... questionable choice of words regarding Afghanistan and the Taliban. And then Ferreri, who indicated she was vaccinated, but now it turns out not so much, as in only partially, meanwhile visiting retirement homes on the campaign trail. How voters judge these two items likely reflects which way they lean politically in the first place, so it seems to me like it will just be a wash in the end.
As always it will come down to the national and the provincial polling (until some day it doesn't, of course). Which the sign wars indicate are in line with the city/county aggregate, to my eyes. Liberals edging out Tories in the city, with a stronger than usual NDP showing, and a smattering of Green and PPC support. More Conservatives in the country, and also more PPC.
Is it enough to make up the difference? And how much erstwhile NDP and PPC support ends up decamping to middle ground? The trends over the final weekend will end up telling the tale, not the colourful adventures of the local candidates.
17/09/21 Peterborough Guy
People in Peterborough-Kawartha are very upset with Conservative candidate, Michelle Ferreri because she said she went to a senior’s residence when she was only partially vaccinated against Covid. Many are questioning why she was not fully vaccinated months ago when she was eligible. This has shifted support away from her and coupled with many NDP and Green Party voters looking to vote strategically and voting Liberal. Maryam Monsef should be re-elected.
17/09/21 Peterborough Guy
People in Peterborough-Kawartha are very upset with Conservative candidate, Michelle Ferreri because she said she went to a senior’s residence when she was only partially vaccinated against Covid. Many are questioning why she was not fully vaccinated months ago when she was eligible. This has shifted support away from her and coupled with many NDP and Green Party voters looking to vote strategically and voting Liberal. Maryam Monsef should be re-elected.
14/09/21 kingstonstudent
Even though she held onto the riding in 2019 Maryam Monsef's reputation has declined precipitously since then - speaking anecdotally, family members of mine in Peterborough who are also diehard Liberals have been incredibly disappointed in her. Based on 2019's results the Liberals would have to be in majority territory for this to be a lock, and clearly that hasn't worked out. If she does hold on, it will be due to the NDP continuing their tradition of underperformance compared to the old Linda Slavin days, but with their polling staying put close to 20% that seems unlikely.
08/09/21 Thomas K
Peterborough-Kawartha is a bellwether riding, and with a prime minister O'Toole looking increasingly likely, that is one reason to believe this will flip, coupled with his good polling in Ontario. Then, Maryam Monsef, who is already a more disliked and partisan MP in the Liberal caucus, referring to the Taliban as ‘brothers’ is clearly going to be the final nail in the coffin for her campaign here.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Not sure if Maryam Monsef can hold this seat after what she said about Afghanistan .
I think if she hanged her approach she might be able to hold onto the seat, but there might not be enough time for her to do it.
Hard to say
04/09/21 JC
Monsef was not that popular and felt more like part of the Trudeau wave. His numbers are too low, her campaign would have to ignite passion, not sure that is going to happen leading to Liberals staying home or going CPC.
Also could see this going CPC and breaking the bellwether tradition as the Libs are strong in their traditional urban strongholds.
02/09/21 R.O.
New mainstreet poll for Peterborough , cpc candidate Michelle Ferreri is at 40 % , Maryam Monsef is at 27 % and ndp candidate Joy Lachica is at 19 %.
01/09/21 PTBO Pundit
Changing my prediction... We always wonder if a local candidate could ever do something so significant to make a difference in the local race. ‘Taliban / brothers’ is that *something*. That remark eliminated Monsef from politics once and for all. Tory gain.
27/08/21 NIck M.
A very competitive nomination battle for the CPC, means this candidate will have brought in a well organized battle ready ground game.
26/08/21 R.O.
Maryan Monsef was first elected in 2015 replacing former mp Dean Del Mastro who had been elected as a conservative in 2006. This riding has the reputation of being a swing riding and generally goes to the winner. The conservatives and ndp have new candidates this year Michael Skinner has been replaced by Michelle Ferrari as cpc candidate. Joy Lachica is the new ndp candidate I’m not aware of any specific local issues which would influence the race here so comes down to what goes on in Ontario and at this point I’d hold off on making a solid prediction
19/08/21 Outside Inside
And just like that, an 'insurmountable' Liberal lead has turned into a competitive national contest, and so it will be the case in Peterborough-Kawartha as well, the closest there is to a riding that represents baseline political Canadiana.
Monsef will probably not rise above her party's fortunes. Her profile at the helm of the portfolio most connected to the Liberals' self-styled 'feminist government' didn't result in any sort of outperforming expectations in this riding in 2019, and nothing in the past two years suggests that will change. The current Conservative candidate also has more of a local profile than the previous candidate did, which doesn't hurt. Will remain too close to call as long as the election as a whole does.
09/07/21 PTBO Pundit
The Liberals have an insurmountable lead nationally so its already over in this riding. Also the Liberal incumbent is using the well honed, time honored tradition of telling silly stories about fictitious train stops. If there's one thing everyone loves in Peterborough, its fake trains.
23/06/21 Stevo
It's quite repetitive each election cycle, but needs to be said. Peterborough remains, after all this time, the top bellwether seat in Canada (and the top Ontario provincial bellwether too). Yes perhaps THIS will be the election where it breaks that longstanding record, but I wouldn't bet on it.
11/05/21 Craig
If the election was tomorrow, the Liberals would be strongly favoured in Peterborough-Kawartha as they are leading in polls. However, this is the ultimate bellwether in Canada. Hence, if the Conservatives can rise in the polls, they can't be ruled out here. As a result, it is a fool's errand to predict a winner here this early.
There's something about Peterborough that makes it a microcosm of Canada and that has lasted for decades, as it falls near average on just about every indicator. There's no reason why it won't continue this time around.
08/08/21 A.S.
Bellwetherdom is a creature of circumstance, it isn't cast in stone--had Peter Adams run again in 2006, or had the Libs run a better candidate in his stead, they probably could have prevailed over Dean Del Mastro that year. (Though even without his legal troubles, Del Mastro would have been a likelier defeatee in '15.) Central/Eastern Ontario second-term ambivalence over the Justin Libs (together with Monsef's weaknesses) explain the diminished margin here, at least compared to the increased margins in places like Waterloo Region and London--though P'boro being the most ‘metropolitan’ urban centre btw/the GTA and Kingston explains why the falloff wasn't quite so drastic as in Bay Of Quinte; there's more of an organic Liberal cushion in the big city, IOW. And this *is* increasingly a part of the outermost Toronto commuter orbit, which exudes its own ‘Liberalization’ effect--then again, if political regionalism still counts for anything, it's can also be seen as the 115-connected outer edge of O'Toole country...

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster