Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:05:51

Constituency Profile


Baker, Wayne

Knight, Brendan

Kruchkywich, Kevin

Nater, John


John Nater

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3580.29 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

John Nater ** 2562246.30%
Pirie Mitchell 1500227.10%
Geoff Krauter 809414.60%
Collan Simmons 49499.00%
Roger Fuhr 8941.60%
Irma DeVries 7331.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John Nater 2225542.90%
Stephen McCotter 1948037.60%
Ethan Rabidoux 775615.00%
Nicole Ramsdale 13472.60%
Irma DeVries 7941.50%
Roger Fuhr 2190.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 8061.74%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Randy Pettapiece * 2373650.67%
Michael O'Brien 1438530.71%
Brendan Knight 506210.81%
Lisa Olsen 27465.86%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 17024.15%

19/09/21 Ed Ferrar
This is a riding where the Liberals could squeak out a win.
There are a lot of PPC signs, especially in the rural south & north of the riding where Nater and the Conservatives get most of their support. If the polls are to be believed they could peel off 5,000 plus votes.
On the other side, there is no Green candidate running here, and the local Liberal candidate has an environmental background and has been the only candidate talking about it as an issue.
If the Liberals can pick up a good chunk of those green voters, and the PPC takes a chunk of Tory vote, all of a sudden a 9,000 vote margin shrinks to less than 1,000. Mix in O'Toole's falling poll numbers, stranger things have happened.
24/08/21 R.O.
John Nater was first elected in 2015 in this largely rural, long time conservative riding and would expect that to continue.
25/05/21 seasaw
This is another riding that some believed would be competitive, and for a good reason, it was fairly competitive in 2015,but John Nater was elected by 10,000 votes, he's likely going to win by a similar margin this time.
08/08/21 A.S.
The difference btw/2015 and 2019: in '15, the Libs swept Stratford. In '19, Stratford was peppered with spots of blue and even NDP orange. (It still went Liberal...but other than a couple of polls in St. Marys, nothing else did. This most internally polarized of ridings never fails.)

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