Election Prediction Project

Parry Sound-Muskoka
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-13 21:30:52

Constituency Profile


Aitchison, Scott

Fawcett, James

Hay, Heather

Mantha, Marc

Nicoyishakiye, Jovanie

Predie Jr, Daniel

Tole, James


Scott Aitchison

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



12542.62 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Scott Aitchison 2284541.80%
Trisha Cowie 1661530.40%
Gord Miller 840915.40%
Tom Young 641711.70%
Daniel Predie Jr 3770.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Tony Clement ** 2220643.30%
Trisha Cowie 1993738.90%
Matt McCarthy 518310.10%
Glen Hodgson 37047.20%
Duncan Bell 1210.20%
Gordie Merton 880.20%
Albert Gray Smith 400.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2220.48%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Parry Sound-Muskoka
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Norm Miller * 2266248.07%
Erin Horvath 1038522.03%
Matt Richter 943820.02%
Brenda Rhodes 40718.64%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2960.76%

31/08/21 R.O.
Scott Aitchison was first elected in 2019 although he had been mayor of Huntsville previously so well known in the riding. In what has been a traditionally conservative riding. Trish Cowie is not back as the liberal candidate replaced by an unknown one Jovanie Nicoyishkiye who doesn’t appear to have any connection to the riding and from Toronto. Gord Miller also not back as green candidate replaced by Marc Mantha.
09/08/21 A.S.
Re the Libs doing well here in the past: it was really more of an ‘Andy Mitchell’ riding than a Liberal riding during the Chretien/Martin years. And in a not-uncommon pattern, Trisha Cowie made it close in Tony Clement's final race, but it wasn't so close for her vs a new candidate in '19. Though as it now stands, PSM might as well be a federal-and-provincial Conservative version of Guelph, in the prevailing-against-fragmented-opposition sense--right down to the prominent Green element ('19 canidate Gord Miller, who had run in Guelph in '15, turned in the 3rd best Ontario result).
12/07/21 seasaw
This riding will probably go Conservative, but it's not safe Conservative. The Liberals have done very well in this riding in the past, but barring an epic CPC collapse, which is possible, the riding should stay in the blue column even if the Liberals win a majority

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