|Hammer (the other one)
|The NDP Paul Taylor campaign has to overcome a 16 point margin from 2019. National and provincial polling suggests that the NDP will improve their showing over last election, but I don’t think it will be enough for them to win back PHP. My final prediction is a Liberal hold by 10 points.
|A re-run of the last election. Taylor has the right resume, right approach, heck the right hipster glasses to win over the riding but his team is just the wrong colour. Parkdale-High Park went NDP only when the Liberals veered right - and that's not happening anytime soon. People get jazzed about all the orange on the streets but for every NDP sign you see there is one sign-less house voting NDP and three sign-less houses voting Liberal.
|Left feeling the ndp in Toronto under Singh are still a work in progress and perhaps more of a long term threat to the liberals here than an immediate one. Especially if there able to attract higher profile candidates in future elections and voters grow tired of the liberals much like they did provincially. That being said this riding had been ndp a few elections ago when Peggy Nash mp so its still one of there stronger areas in Toronto. Likely be closer than 2019 and more resemble ridings closer results from past years.
|If we compare current polling to the 2019 numbers, the Liberals are down four and the NDP up two in Ontario. This isn’t enough of a swing to upset PHP.
|The campaign research results in Toronto actually do indicate a Liberal->NDP swing, as the Liberals were over 50% last election and the NDP at only 16%, so there is movement that makes a Davenport NDP pickup likely. That said, there's a bigger gap to make up in Parkdale-High Park, so I'm not significantly opposed to the Liberal call here. I'll withhold for now though.
|Drove through the south east portion of the riding -- Queen St West, Roncesvalles, etc. Taylor,NDP, signs everywhere; only a few Liberal signs. I imagine Liberal support is above and west of High Park, but the NDP is definitely working hard here.
|Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Toronto proper. With a lead like that, none of the 416 ridings are at risk of flipping. This is also almost unchanged (well within the MoE) from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. Parkdale-High Park = Liberal hold. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view
|NDP has a far better chance here than the neighbouring Davenport. Virani has been a good MP, but if the NDP were to win a 416 seat,this one will be the oke
|While the NDP is up nationally, it is no longer up nationally enough to make up a 9000 vote deficit. In fact Ontario and Toronto especially seem relatively sluggish for the NDP when compared to virtually any other region; unless the NDP gets more than 40 seats nationally NDP gains in the province will be countable on one hand. Arif should win by about 4-5000 votes.
|I'm moving my prediction from Liberal to Too Close to Call. I still give the Liberals the slight edge, but not with much confidence. Like other ridings in Toronto, the NDP seems better organized this time, probably as a result of their bigger election coffers over 2019. One X factor will be the CPC support in the wealthier pockets in the western end of the riding, and in particular, Baby Point. The CPC hit above 30% in some of those polls in 2019, and increased CPC fortunes as of the last few weeks could eat into more of the Liberal vote in the affluent pockets.
|Paul Taylor and the NDP are campaigning strongly in Parkdale-High Park, certainly winning the sign game. Together with stronger polling than in 2019 this means NDP victory cannot be ruled out. If NDP support provincewide continues to increase then the riding will be leaning orange. If not, then Virani survives albeit by a much closer margin.
|Sigh. People see the NDP vote up a few percentage points from last time and automatically assume that will flip urban seats without asking ‘Where is this increase occurring?’ This increase, in the local context (if real, wait for voting day) is not sufficient for the large vote shifts needed to win a riding like Parkdale-High Park. The increase is coming from other ridings, where the NDP is more marginal and where younger voters have more influence. In Parkdale-High Park - where Trudeau plays well, the Liberals are popular, and the Conservatives are not a factor - there just aren't the conditions to drive significant voters away from the Liberals. Paul Taylor will improve his total, but not where near enough to win.
|Closer than last time, potentially very close, but the LPC has an advantage here. High Park/Swansea is a wealthier, older area than Parkdale, so even if the NDP runs up the margins in Parkdale, I think Virani is a strong enough incumbent to hold it.
|Yesterday I did a downtown Toronto crosstown drive. While I know that signs don’t vote, as a former longtime pol myself, I always wanted more than my opponents. Seems to me that Paul Taylor has a strong campaign going on, stronger than Virani. Is he up 7% and the Libs down 7%. I say yes and that his is extremely close.
|This riding seems like a much likelier pickup for the NDP than Trinity Spadina, which you have as TCTC. Arif is a decent enough MP but pretty low-profile, just a Parliamentary Secretary, and Paul Taylor seems to have gotten a much better start this time. A reach for the NDP, but very possible with the way things are going for the Liberals right now — bleeding support in both directions.
|Bad first week for the Liberals has this riding looking interesting. They won PHP by 16 points last time. In recent Ontario polling, the Liberals are down 3 points from 2019 and the NDP is up 5...that's half of Virani's margin gone.
It's still the Liberals here for now, but if they slide a couple more points in Ontario, Taylor will be within striking distance.
|Mainstreet riding poll:
34.5% Liberal, 14.3% Conservative, 16.6% NDP. 8.8% Green. 23% undecided.
|I can't *completely* rule out Taylor in the Taylor-Virani rematch--even if the new families moving in are ‘affluent’, they remain politically left-transactional, and the NDP's much stronger now than they were going into '19. The question is not of whether voters are more enthused by Jagmeet, but of whether they're sufficiently fatigued by Justin to stunt such a switchover at this juncture. And two terms in, Virani seems to have settled in in a latently ‘why bother kicking him out’ way (funny, Gerard Kennedy *didn't* have that quality, at least not federally)
|This will likely stay Liberal next election. If the NDP are to make any waves in the sea of red in Toronto, it will probably be Davenport to the east, not Parkdale High Park.
|The close race many were predicting last time didn't come to be: Arif Virani cruised to victory, winning by a margin of nearly 10,000 votes. The NDP is running Paul Taylor again and seem to be treating PHP as their #1 target. Although his profile has increased, it's still a big hill to climb. The NDP has a very hard time in the more affluent/centrist western half of the riding (Swansea, Bloor West Village), while Roncesvalles and the Junction are increasingly populated by affluent families that vote Liberal. Virani even edged out Taylor in Parkdale. The Liberals under Justin Trudeau have made major inroads among culturally liberal urban voters in inner Toronto while the NDP have lost ground. It looks like neighboring Davenport has more favorable conditions for an NDP victory. Unless there's a big shift in the national polls, this should stay Liberal.
|Jeremus von Stroheim
|Given that they're running the same candidates as last time and the liberals won by over 15%, I don't see why the results would be any different. Liberal hold.