Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:28:39

Constituency Profile


Chambers, Matthew

MacKenzie, Dave

Martin, Wendy

Quinto, Elizabeth

Reid, Bob

Scovil, Allen


Dave MacKenzie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2247.53 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Dave MacKenzie ** 2931048.10%
Matthew Chambers 1230620.20%
Brendan Knight 1174519.30%
Lisa Birtch-Carriere 47707.80%
Wendy Martin 17742.90%
Melody Aldred 9861.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dave MacKenzie ** 2596645.70%
Don McKay 1829932.20%
Zoe Kunschner 940616.50%
Mike Farlow 20043.50%
Melody Ann Aldred 11752.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 7861.61%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (97.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.7% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ernie Hardeman * 2915255.73%
Tara King 1591730.43%
James Howard 36206.92%
Albert De Jong 22544.31%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7611.80%

The number of PPC signs on both private and public property is startling. I've been driving all over this riding, and homes that have reliably had CPC signs for years either don't have any or have PPC signs. Obviously signs don't vote and I don't belive for an instant that the PPC will be competitive, but, honestly this election anything is possible. Consider what happened in the 90's when the vote split on the right, The difference is this time is that the liberals would not be the ones to come up the middle and take it.
08/09/21 R.O.
Dave Mackenzie was first elected in 2004 and re elected in every election since so a veteran of the cpc caucus. Surprised he decided to run again but likely riding stays cpc
24/08/21 Chris N
I was in Woodstock last weekend and it was a sea of blue signs, from the old downtown, to the burbs to farmland. Easy win for the CPC.
11/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
I live in this riding. Besides being a natural conservative stronghold in the dairy belt, the conservative incumbent is extremely popular in Woodstock since he was the former police chief, and the Liberals usually don't even bother showing up to the debates. Easiest conservative hold in Southwestern Ontairo.
08/08/21 A.S.
Unusual among SW Ontario Con strongholds in that the *NDP* was 2nd, not the Libs--which is part of a longer-term recent pattern, likely fueled by the local auto economy; interesting that it happened against the grain of ‘Jagmeet won't sell in the heartland’ rhetoric, though. And it seems not so much portentous as a highlighting of the utter inconsequentiality of opposition forces in a riding like this.

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