Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:08:15

Constituency Profile


Bourguignon, Crystelle

Desgranges, Jean-Jacques

Elford, Daniel

Fortier, Mona

Inamuco, Lyse-Pascale

Jensen, Heidi

Leriche, Marie-Chantal TaiEl

Proulx, Christian


Mona Fortier

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39.09 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mona Fortier ** 3267951.20%
Stéphanie Mercier 1351621.20%
Joel E. Bernard 1111817.40%
Oriana Ngabirano 47967.50%
Paul Durst 10641.70%
Derek Miller 2290.40%
Joel Altman 2110.30%
Michelle Paquette 1150.20%
Daniel James McHugh 940.10%
Christian Legeais 590.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mauril Bélanger ** 3647457.60%
Emilie Taman 1219419.20%
David Piccini 1210919.10%
Nira Dookeran 19473.10%
Coreen Corcoran 5030.80%
Christian Legeais 1280.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1220.22%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Nathalie Des Rosiers * 2055542.86%
Lyra Evans 1423229.68%
Fadi Nemr 1025221.38%
Sheilagh Mclean 19554.08%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3770.89%

03/09/21 Matt B.
Another extremely safe Ottawa riding for the Liberals. The Liberals have a double-digit polling advantage in polling over their next closest rivals, the NDP. This is a very progressive riding. Mona Fortier will easily cruise to another term and secure her pension - unlike many Liberal MPs elsewhere.
23/08/21 Drew613
Since Ottawa-Vanier's creation almost a century ago, the Liberals have won the riding every single time. That won't be changing anytime soon.
17/08/21 R.O.
Liberals will likely hold the riding as its been liberal for a very long time , but wouldn’t be surprised if the ndp does better in this type of urban riding where they often come in 2nd .
05/06/21 Libby Burgundy
While this part of Ottawa is becoming less of a francophone enclave, this is mostly because the public servants, students, and white-collar workers are displacing them -- all of which bodes well for the Liberals hanging onto one of their top-5 safest seats in the country for years to come.
05/05/21 JW
CPC won over 80% in most rural Aberta ridings last time.
08/08/21 A.S.
Actually, Ottawa-Vanier's ‘post-Francophone’ demos have diluted the once-mythic Liberal strength to the point where this so-called ‘top-5 safest seat’ only had '19's 3rd best Lib share in Ottawa (after Orleans and Ottawa South--and add Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer, and it'd only be #5 in the National Capital Region). Of course, share is one thing, opposition vote distribution is another--and much as in ridings like Guelph, it's really a split-several-ways opposition that now ensures eternality, rather than the simple monolithic-Liberal-bloc dynamic of olden time.

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