Election Prediction Project

Ottawa South
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:57:11

Constituency Profile


Hall, Chylow

McGuinty, David

Mukbil, Huda

Schram, Les

Tannis, Eli

Wasslen, Larry


David McGuinty

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



72.88 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

David McGuinty ** 3420552.30%
Eli Tannis 1602524.50%
Morgan Gay 1045716.00%
Les Schram 36455.60%
Rodrigo André Bolaños 7171.10%
Ahmed Bouragba 1410.20%
Larry Wasslen 990.20%
Sarmad Laith 870.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David McGuinty ** 3883160.10%
Dev Balkissoon 1571124.30%
George Brown 748011.60%
John Redins 18882.90%
Al Gullon 3660.60%
Damien Wilson 2370.40%
Larry Wasslen 1360.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 8951.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Ottawa South
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

John Fraser * 2077339.63%
Karin Howard 1531929.23%
Eleanor Fast 1425027.19%
Les Schram 16183.09%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6561.38%

03/09/21 Matt B.
The Liberals have a massive advantage in this riding in terms of polling and incumbency. David McGuinty is a popular MP with strong ties in the community and name recognition. The challengers are largely unknown. Polling puts the LPC up in a double digit advantage over the 2nd place CPC. This riding will go Liberal.
02/09/21 jb
The McGuinty name is synonymous with Public Service. David McGuinty has consistently polled ahead of his party in past elections. Expect the same on September 20th. The conservative candidate had the worse showing of any previous tory party standard bearer in the ridings history in 2019. The fact that he does not even live in the riding is likely a contributing factor. Even if Conservatives form a majority government David wins.
26/08/21 R.O.
Is a long time liberal riding and David Mcguinty has been mp since 2004. Even with some voters annoyed over the early election call and reasonably good cpc candidate Eli Tannis who also ran here in 2019 and got close to 25% of the vote, its still likely to stay liberal at this point.
28/05/21 MF
A super-safe Liberal riding, Ottawa South has been Liberal since its inception in 1988, including in the 2011 debacle. Not only that, but this was one of two ridings in the province (the other being Ottawa-Vanier) where the OLP won by more than 10 points in the 2018 provincial election.
21/05/21 Craig
The McGuinty family is an institution in south Ottawa and David has this seat as long as he wants it. The Conservatives frequently put up strong candidates (both federally and provincially) only to come up far short, while the NDP are not a real factor here either. That combination means the Liberals will win again, likely with an increased margin.
There is also a large Islamic-Canadian population here that remains very skeptical of the Conservatives, plus there are many government employees that live in Ottawa South. That combination should ensure that it remains one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. It remained Liberal even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially, one of only a small handful of ridings to do so.
08/08/21 A.S.
What *could* be worth monitoring here is the opposition--I already semi-whimsically speculated on a provincially-inspired NDP-ahead-of-CPC scenario in '19; the actual gap btw/ the two that year, and the subsequently trajectories of the respective parties, suggest that such semi-whimsy might be inching closer to reality than it looks...

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