Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:29:18

Constituency Profile


Cléroux, André Junior

Hartnett, Michael

Joanis, Jessica

Lalonde, Marie-France

Oklobdzija, Spencer

Wolfe, Mary-Elsie


Marie-France Lalonde

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



205.03 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marie-France Lalonde 4418354.30%
David Bertschi 2298428.20%
Jacqui Wiens 942811.60%
Michelle Petersen 38294.70%
Roger Saint-Fleur 9861.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Andrew Leslie 4654259.70%
Royal Galipeau ** 2382130.50%
Nancy Tremblay 62158.00%
Raphaël Morin 14101.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 70.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Marie-France Lalonde * 2497239.05%
Cameron Montgomery 2250935.2%
Barbara Zarboni 1403321.94%
Nicholas Lapierre 16032.51%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4060.73%

07/09/21 Jack Porter
Hardly any conservative signs out, they have a very in experienced candidate in Mary Elsie Wolfe, Incumbent Liberal is well liked and will win with a landslide in Orleans. The NDP might catch some protest votes and have a very approachable hard working personable candidate, but nothing will stop MF Lalonde winning this
03/09/21 Matt B.
This is a reliable Liberal constituency. It will very likely go red, and I would be shocked if there was another outcome. Liberals are at almost 50% of the vote right now.
31/08/21 Jeff Wilson
As safe a Liberal seat as ever there was one. Signage is dominated by the Libs on major intersections as well as on private property. 338 polling has this riding heavily leaning red. This one is a Liberal hold for sure.
22/06/21 Marco Ricci
This was a Conservative riding during the Harper years but is likely to remain Liberal for the near future. The Liberals won it by nearly 2-1 in 2015 & 2019. Marie-France Lalonde seems to be well-liked in this riding and was able to win it provincially in 2018 during the Liberal wipeout. That popularity is likely to continue now that she is the Federal MP.
11/05/21 Ottawa 99
Étant donné que les libéraux ont très facilement gagné cette circonscription en 2015 et 2019, l'ont conservé aux élections provinciales de 2018, et l'ont très facilement gagné dans une élection partielle (au niveau provincial) en 2020, je ne pense pas qu'ils auront de la difficulté ici. .
08/08/21 A.S.
Even when HarperCon, it was only shallowly so (never w/more than a 6-point margin, 2011 not excepted), so for Orleans to become Landslide Liberal is no surprise--reinforced by its remaining *provincially* Liberal in '18, and then that provincial Lib victor going federal the next year, when all the CPC could offer is, well looky here, 2011's federal Liberal candidate. Though yes, here, too, the suburban Ottawa pattern of both Libs and Cons losing ground from '15, and more so in the Libs' case--but at a nearly 2:1 margin, does it matter?

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