Election Prediction Project

Ottawa Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-09 08:33:19

Constituency Profile


Bertrand, Shelby

Clemenhagen, Carol

Joyal, Richard "Rich"

Keller-Herzog, Angela

MacEwen, Angella

McDonald, Alex

Naqvi, Yasir

Watteel, Regina


Catherine McKenna

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



32.19 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Catherine McKenna ** 3839148.70%
Emilie Taman 2291629.00%
Carol Clemenhagen 992012.60%
Angela Keller-Herzog 58377.40%
Merylee Sevilla 7200.90%
Coreen Corcoran 3600.50%
Shelby Bertrand 2070.30%
Marie-Chantal Leriche 1980.30%
Chris G Jones 1770.20%
Stuart Ryan 1110.10%
Giang Ha Thu Vo 650.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Catherine Mary McKenna 3221142.70%
Paul Dewar ** 2909838.50%
Damian Konstantinakos 1094314.50%
Tom Milroy 22463.00%
Dean T. Harris 5510.70%
Conrad Lukawski 1670.20%
John Andrew Omowole Akpata 1600.20%
Stuart Ryan 1240.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6861.06%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Ottawa Centre
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Joel Harden 2967546.08%
Yasir Naqvi * 2111132.78%
Colleen Mccleery 1032716.03%
Cherie Wong 22663.52%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8081.52%

19/09/21 jeff316
Naqvi the edge? He'll win by 15+ percentage points! There is no-one the NDP loves defeating more than the smarmy Liberal-red son of an NDP family. But it won't happen twice. Local candidate is nothing special and not enough McKenna switchers for NDP to come close. There is a reason Taman isn't running again. It was always lost.
08/09/21 Traveller
I would give Naqvi a slight edge, based on name recognition and the likelihood civil servants will rally to the Liberals to prevent a Con win, even though the Cons are not electable in this riding. If the Libs fall after the debates this week, however, Naqvi could sink with them.
08/09/21 George
Mainstreet from August shows a healthy Liberal lead
07/09/21 Sam
The idea that Naqvi who has lost one election in his career is some serial vote loser to the NDP is delusional. He should benefit from a better environment this time, but the NDP apparently having a far better ground game and gaining strength gives me caution. Still, I'll go Liberal since I just think it's too much of a long shot, but I understand the current call.
06/09/21 Nick M.
If the NDP was the incumbent party, then it would have a chance.
It just appears to be a safe LPC seat.
What is working to the NDP advantage would be the low morale of LPC Volunteers, which are needed for this riding.
The election is on to short of a notice for the NDP to organize a serious challenge. Especially when the election started, it seemed to be a cake walk for LPC, making it hard to motivate NDP volunteers at the start of the campaign.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Like Toronto, one of the top issues in Ottawa is the lack of social housing, fight against climate change, and way more job creation.
I think Yasir Navqi , the Liberals , will hold this seat because Yasir has promised to bring in more social housing units, and to work with Ottawa community housing, Cornerstone.
But if he breaks his promise on it, then in next election, the NDP will win it.
04/09/21 KXS
Ottawa Centre has been fools gold for the Ontario NDP in 2007 and 2011 when they underestimated Yasir Naqvi. It took the Liberal disaster of 2018 to knock him out, even then he had a strong 2nd place showing.
Sure, the Liberal campaign is struggling. But their Ontario numbers are okay enough to hold on to this.
I could think of 10 seats the NDP will pick up in ON before they win Ottawa Centre. The campaign is focused more in the North, downtown Toronto, Hamilton, London and Windsor.
04/09/21 Gritbusters
Like Denis Coderre in Montreal, Yasir Naqvi has demonstrated an aptitude for getting clobbered by socialists. MacKewn will pick this one up :)
04/09/21 Matt B.
Liberal support has been slipping over the last couple of weeks and 338 has this riding now polling closely with the NDP. This follows the general trend in Ottawa with Liberal support slipping (going to the CPC in West Ottawa) but in this strongly progressive riding it is to the benefit of the NDP. The NDP have a strong ground game in this riding, and the Liberals do not have the incumbency advantage with Catherine McKenna opting not to run. I peg this one as an ultimate win for the NDP, in keeping with Joel Hardon's NDP victory in 2018 provincially.
26/08/21 JB
The NDP candidate is well-known and well-liked, and the early lawn signs favour her handily. Early days, but I'm sensing fatigue with the Liberals and with the PM specifically. This one seems to flip between the Libs and NDP every two cycles or so, and we're right on schedule for a flip to the NDP.
26/08/21 Thomas K
Angella Macewan appears often on the various TV politics panels, so she has a relatively established recognition. I predict the Liberals will probably win, but the NDP seem to be doing quite well in Ontario so too early to say for sure.
14/08/21 Hammer
I have the Liberals winning by 5-10%. An uptick in NDP support and no Liberal incumbent will undoubtedly make this a target for the NDP. However, the new Liberal candidate was an MPP for many years and has name recognition, and the Liberals are polling in the large minority/small majority territory which should be enough to get them across the finish line.
21/07/21 Marco Ricci
Former Liberal MPP Yasir Naqvi, who represented Ottawa Centre provincially for many years, has expressed interest in running for the federal Ottawa Centre nomination to replace Catherine McKenna. If he receives the nomination, he will have a good chance of winning the seat.
28/06/21 ME
Catherine McKinnon is leaving politics and the riding is now open..
11/05/21 Ottawa 99
Je pense que la situation dans cette circonscription est comparable à celle des élections provinciales de 2011 ou de 2014. Dans les prochaines années, la popularité du PLC va probablement finir par prendre une chute en Ontario, ce qui permettra au NPD de reprendre cette circonscription, potentiellement très facilement. Mais cette fois-ci, je pense que McKenna sera presque certainement réélu.
08/08/21 A.S.
Naqvi is indeed a strong candidate (though not ballyhooed future-PM material in a way that Mark Carney would have been); but it's forever a seat for the NDP to covet, all the more so as an open seat. And to acknowledge the open-seatness and the wind in Jagmeet's sails, I'll withhold a prediction--yeah, Naqvi's strong, but so was Pupatello (then again, Naqvi isn't facing an NDP incumbent the way Pupatello was--come to think of it, maybe I should give second thought re that non-prediction).

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