Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:16:53

Constituency Profile


Carrie, Colin

Hossain, Afroza

Mackie, Darryl

Mir, Sonny

Panylo, Shailene


Colin Carrie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



60.58 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Colin Carrie ** 2408738.90%
Shailene Panylo 1766828.50%
Afroza Hossain 1575025.40%
Jovannah Ramsden 31515.10%
Eric Mackenzie 12152.00%
Jeff Tomlinson 1120.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Colin Carrie ** 2316238.20%
Mary Fowler 1933931.90%
Tito-Dante Marimpietri 1658827.30%
Michael Dempsey 15222.50%
David Gershuny 750.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2940.56%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (83.91% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (16.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jennifer French * 2430144.88%
Bob Chapman 2259441.73%
Makini Smith 42787.9%
Deborah Ellis 19573.61%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 580.12%

13/09/21 Physastr Master
The NDP surge across Ontario appears to be receding. I think this is probably the biggest reach of a riding still in the TCTC column, so I think a Conservative call here is appropriate.
11/09/21 Philly D.
The part of Oshawa not in this riding being in O'Toole land, one might think the Tories can surely hold one more time... except it has just been reported in the media that the Liberal candidate has asked for a 300$ donation in order to appear on a local election panel. This might depress the Liberal vote just enough for an NDP upset.
09/09/21 QuebecCityOliver
I haven't thrown up a prediction here in the last few election cycles despite this being my in-laws' home riding - The NDP did finally take it provincially but I don't think federal and provincial politics align enough for Colin to lose.
06/09/21 R.O.
Colin Carrie was first elected here in 2004 , seems like every election since has been competitive but riding remains conservative. The provincial ndp did win the riding in 2014 and held it in 2018 but if anyone remembers the 2014 election the pc’s did very poorly in the Toronto area. this riding also borders O’tooles riding of Durham to the east . I’m not sure it’s a top ndp target when compared to some other ridings with more recent ndp history federally in Ontario.
05/09/21 Wildflower
I think that NDP may pick up this riding because there are serious issues with the Auto Sector. Yes there is a chip shortage with General motors, and it could create labour problems for the Auto workers.
Plus, there are problems with Durham college , because some students dropped out of college during the pandemic. Since ford govt are sitting on their butts this month , and not in queens park legislature, I think people will vote NDP to punish the torus, Tories are lying to people about healthcare privatization.
02/09/21 Predictions
The 'Shwa always seems to be on the verge of going NDP, but federally it hasn't for a long time. Colin Carrie has managed to hold this one by a 5+ percent margin since 2006, and with the leader's riding next door, I imagine the CPC ground game is strong here. GTA spillover in Oshawa probably helps the Liberals, but they're starting too far behind to really compete here. To boot, the NDP candidate has no UAW connections.
I think Colin Carrie holds this one again.
23/08/21 KXS
Is Colin Carrie really a popular incumbent as some posters suggest? He won four of six elections with less than 40% of the vote.
Former MPP Jerry Ouellette seemed unbeatable in Oshawa until he was defeated in 2014.
If the NDP can sustain momentum throughout the campaign, this will be TCTC.
21/08/21 Physastr Master
I'm as surprised as the next guy, but Ontario seems to be trending quite favorably to the NDP early in the election season, and even more surprisingly things look best in smaller industrial cities like Oshawa, London, Windsor, etc as per 338. This seems to contradict the ‘Jagmeet doesn't play in the industrial heartland’ message. We haven't seen really any campaigning yet, but despite the very different package in the form of Jagmeet Singh, the rhetoric last election definitely tried to emulate the Layton-style ‘stand up for the little guy’ approach, with Trudeau being the one getting the anti-wokeness ire. I think a lot of these industrial ridings are on a knife-edge now and could go either way, so I'm not betting on Jagmeet campaigning in a way he could actually win, but I think TCTC here is appropriate while we see how the campaign develops, but the NDP seems the natural beneficiary of anti-Liberal sentiment and this was a more or less 3-way race last time.
21/08/21 Marco Ricci
The NDP has had 2 challenges here recently: 1) the ongoing incumbency advantage of CPC MP Colin Carrie and 2) the vote split with the Liberals (who have taken a quarter of the vote in the past 2 elections). But with the NDP up in the Ontario polls in this election, there is the opportunity for the NDP to make up some ground here. The fact that the NDP holds the riding provincially shows it is possible for them to win federally. The question is whether the stars will align in 2021, or whether they will have to wait longer.
20/08/21 Chris N
I also think the claim that the NDP might be too ‘woke’ for the riding doesn't hold much water. Yes, Oshawa is still a majority white, blue collar riding, but it does have a female NDP MPP Jennifer French who isn't exactly your typical mustached, auto-worker lunch-pail type. The Conservatives definitely have the edge, as Carrie is quite popular locally, but it's not unthinkable that the NDP could snatch it.
20/08/21 DurhamDave
When I drove through Oshawa yesterday, I was surprised by the lack of Colin Carrie signs on both public and private property, at least in the area I was in. This seems odd, especially compared to the Cons' better-organized Whitby candidate who has a ton of signs up already. The only signs I saw up were for the NDP candidate. That being said, I think Oshawa is Carrie's turf for as long as he wants it. Barring a total CPC collapse in Ontario and a good showing from the PPC, I think that the Cons should win here, though perhaps by a smaller margin than last time.
19/08/21 Justin
Unless the PPC eats into the Cons votes, which is unlikely, this should be a Carrie win.
18/08/21 Hammer
I still thinks its Carrie's to win but.... lives with her parents, drives her mom's car, etc is not â€کwoke’. Its working class reality. Panylo has worked for MPP French and with her team, it will be close. 416 migration does not mean Liberal migration...it didn't happen in Hamilton and won't happen here. The NDP is not galaxies away from its working class roots; the working class has changed and so have they.
06/08/21 A.S.
Actually, if there's any moment the NDP in Oshawa ought to have choked on ‘Jagmeet wokeness’, it was in 2019--and the fact that w/a ‘fresh start’ young POC candidate rather than your typical union hack, and w/fewer resources in what looked to be a save-the-furniture kind of election, they *still* managed to cling to 2nd place and a share not *that* much diminished from '15, suggests that such supposed alien-being ‘wokeness’ isn't as much of a burden as it appears. And while O'Toole next door certainly appears to help Carrie, it's Team Jagmeet, not Team O'Toole, that's up at large from '19--and those migrants from the 416 (esp. the younger demos) aren't, these days, necessarily bound to the Libs, particularly if they see the NDP as the more locally ‘viable’ option. So that 28.5% on a shoestring in '19 could well foretell bigger things--particularly when it's the same candidate running...
06/08/21 Kara
Even though OFool is going nowhere in the polls and is killing his own incumbent’s chances, I pick Carrie to hold this seat. He’s well liked among all ages and parties. He’s done a good job as MP. The NDP are re-running a fullblown AOC wannabe crazy unemployed kid named Shailene Panylo who claims she’s had a hard life. But in fact she was adopted by and grew up in an upper middle class family. Still lives at home, drives her mom’s car and wants to abolish the cops and lives on TikTok. A real piece of work. If only the NDP could field a real candidate. The Liberals are re-running the woman who lost the Whitby nomination to Turnbull and knows zero about Oshawa. Still lives in Whitby. Go figure. I pick the Liberal to come second here and the NDP to fall to third.
31/07/21 Sam
While I would definitely pick Colin Carrie to win, this still seems like a good chance for the NDP. It keeps eluding them, partly due to Carrie's strength and their own local problems, but I would go TCTC at this point.
26/06/21 Hammerh
Carrie is popular locally and with O'Toole in the neighbouring riding, its hard to see him losing. In the end, it comes out to voter turnout and if the Liberal vote swings to the NDP locally. The riding is far more likely to vote NDP than Liberal.
25/06/21 Stevo
With Singh's NDP busily trying to out-’woke’ the Trudeau Liberals (an impossible task) and galaxies removed from the party's working class roots, I see little chance of making up that ‘last mile’ and finally overtaking the Conservatives. In addition, migrants from the 416 piling into places like Oshawa may goose the Liberal vote, entrenching the vote-split on the left and leaving the Conservatives comfortably in front. A working class-oriented NDP led by a modern-day Broadbent would leave the Conservatives in the dust here.
10/05/21 Chris N
The NDP have been eyeing this riding for over a decade. However, they have continually come up short, and in the last two elections, have had strong Liberal campaigns to fend off too. Carrie seems popular locally and will likely keep the riding blue.

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