Election Prediction Project

Oakville North-Burlington
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:18:14

Constituency Profile


Damoff, Pam

Dupuis, Lenaee

Jubinville, Gilbert

Rizkalla, Hanan

Sousa, Bruno


Pam Damoff

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



87.16 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Pam Damoff ** 3359748.30%
Sean Weir 2648438.00%
Nicolas Dion 58668.40%
Michael Houghton 29254.20%
Gilbert Joseph Jubinville 7511.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pam Damoff 2841546.70%
Effie Triantafilopoulos 2634243.30%
Janice Best 44057.20%
Adnan Shahbaz 9681.60%
David Clement 6661.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1220.26%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Effie Triantafilopoulos 2569146.41%
Saima Zaidi 1349624.38%
Alvin Tedjo 1348724.37%
Marianne Workman 20523.71%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8241.93%

05/09/21 Wildflower
People in this riding are fussy with their money, and dont like the spending the liberals have done in some areas
03/09/21 R.O.
Pam Damoff was first elected in 2015, this riding in its exact boundaries has also only existed since 2015 before that part of the Milton riding. An area that has bounced back and forth between liberals and conservatives with very little ndp presence. The conservatives have found a new candidate Hanan Rizkala. If the nearby Oakville riding is close this one must be close too.
06/08/21 A.S.
Conventional wisdom had this as low-handing CPC fruit in '19--even EPP forecast as much--yet somehow, Damhoff wound up holding it with a bigger margin than in Oakville. Which wouldn't have been surprising a generation ago; but in these days when Con support is presumed to be more of a York Regionish ‘new money’ than Old Oakvilleish ‘old money’ thing, it can raise eyebrows. (Then again, we're dealing w/an incumbent rather than a nomination-upsetting new candidate, and the CPC was running a former municipal councillor rather than a former MP. So maybe it was just an elementary matter of scale.)
04/08/21 KXS
Pam Damoff won this riding by 7000 votes in 2019. Halton Region is more favourable to the Liberals that it was a decade ago.
Should be a Liberal hold unless the political climate changes significantly.

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