Election Prediction Project

Northumberland-Peterborough South
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-07 13:00:43

Constituency Profile


Lang, Nathan

Lawrence, Philip

Lester, Alison

McArthur-Jackson, Kim

Wilson, Christina


Philip Lawrence

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2726.00 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Philip Lawrence 2738539.70%
Kim Rudd ** 2497736.20%
Mallory MacDonald 961513.90%
Jeff Wheeldon 55248.00%
Frank Vaughan 14602.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kim Rudd 2704342.50%
Adam Moulton 2516539.60%
Russ Christianson 941114.80%
Patricia Sinnott 19903.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1540.28%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Northumberland-Quinte West
   (76.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (13.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (10.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

David Piccini 2738645.32%
Jana Papuckoski 1480424.5%
Lou Rinaldi * 1460324.17%
Jeff Wheeldon 27404.53%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 1030.21%

06/09/21 Sam
Colour me sceptical about the Liberals' ability to regain this in this environment. At present, the Tories are competing for first place in Ontario - this riding is a given on that alone. I don't see much of a reason why this might go a different way to Hastings-Lennox and Addington where there is a call - the swing in 2019 was bigger here. I'd predict a CPC win based on the current polling - though not because of some local dynamic - Philip Lawrence has been a fairly rank and file MP for the CPC but should be a decent standard bearer.
01/09/21 R.O.
Phillip Lawrence was first elected in 2019 in a close race against incumbent liberal mp Kim Rudd who is not back this year replaced by a new candidate Allison Lester. Riding had been conservative before when Rick Norlock mp from 2006-2015 but went liberal in the 2015 election. As things stand now seems likely cpc holds there rural eastern Ontario seats.
04/08/21 KXS
The Liberals narrowly won this riding in 2015, while the Conservatives took this back in 2019.
A weaker Conservative showing in Ontario, could result in the Liberals winning this again.
I'm thinking back to the provincial riding of Northumberland Quinte West..when it went OLP in 2003/7, PC in 2011 and OLP again in 2014.
08/08/21 A.S.
The *other* Justinmania-Lib-turned-Con riding in Eastern Ontario, although Kim Rudd didn't go into it quite as ‘Dead Liberal Walking’ as Mike Bossio--and unlike Bossio, Rudd isn't running again; plus, the person who defeated her has behaved himself and stayed in caucus. Interesting, though, that Lawrence won with virtually the same share the CPC candidate lost with in '15--but on the whole, the riding character is more of a piece with O'Toole heartland-moderation than with Sloan/Hillier/Gallant radical frontier populism. Which is a good place to be relative to whatever mood the O'Toole Cons seek to broadly project now--except that the ‘moderation’ part also explains why the Libs remain in the picture. In a way, this might be the closest modern-day equivalent to the more or less organic ‘swing ridings’ of old, from the days before Lib and Con support became overly ‘sorted’.

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