Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-07 23:09:24

Constituency Profile


Galante, Gregory J

Robertson, Scott

Rota, Anthony

Trahan, Steven


Anthony Rota

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13208.18 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Anthony Rota ** 1935240.50%
Jordy Carr 1298427.20%
Rob Boulet 978420.50%
Alex Gomm 31116.50%
Mark King 24965.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Anthony Rota 2535751.90%
Jay Aspin ** 1432529.30%
Kathleen Jodouin 793616.20%
Nicole Peltier 12572.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.84% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Nickel Belt
   (1.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Vic Fedeli * 1759849.93%
Henri Giroux 1299436.87%
Stephen Glass 27947.93%
Kris Rivard 9972.83%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5851.87%

14/09/21 NJam101
Rota for sure. Now being the Speaker of the House of Commons he likely will get more votes than in 2019.
05/09/21 Dr Bear
As a former (and possibly future) North Bay resident, I will warn everyone about getting too excited about the local municipal politicians jumping into federal (or provincial) politics. It happens all the time and the local city halls are a repository of failed and future MP/MPP hopefuls. Not saying that name recognition doesn’t make a splash, I’m just saying the splash is quite small. Especially if the candidate is from the rural townships (like the current CPC candidate) as opposed to North Bay itself. The city voters might recognize the name but feel no attachment to it. No, this riding by and large goes along with national trends but there is a strong favouring of its incumbents.
02/09/21 R.O.
Would imagine Anthony Rota hold the riding now that he’s speaker of the house. Although I can’t help but take note that the race here is very different than 2019. Does not feature Mark King as a people’s party candidate and a relatively unknown one instead. Steven Trahan is the new cpc candidate and former municipal politician in the area . I think he’s one of the better conservative candidates they’ve ran here in recent elections. The ndp also have a new candidate Scott Robertson a city councillor who seems fairly motivated despite the riding having never been ndp.
17/08/21 Gprimemr
A few days into the campaign Scott Robertson makes it seem like it his election to lose. Ive seen him going door to door twice already, and his lawn signs are winning 3:1. Conservative signs are barely existent. I still think Rota takes it, but not as easily as expected. Robertson and the NDP will be a close second.
17/08/21 Temiskamingvoter
Easy win for Rota. Big NDP presence in north part of the riding. (provincially NDP and big Charlie Angus influence). If the Conservatives continue to stumble, the second place finisher may be the closest thing to an upset in this riding.
09/08/21 A.S.
A likely rubber stamp for Speaker Rota--still, his share fell by over 10 points in '19, likely through autopilot complacency (big deal, he still won). One interesting detail (and which might have fueled said complacency through anticipated vote-splitting) was North Bay councillor Mark King running for PPC after being rejected by the Cons--for all the talk of that ‘star candidacy’, he got less than 1/5 the vote of the Conservative candidate, and even *that* was by far the best People's result in Ontario (if you want proof of how Maxime Bernier bombed and couldn't care less, there it is). This time, maybe more to be watched is if a Covid-era PPC outpolls Mark King, and if the NDP leapfrogs the Cons for 2nd.
08/08/21 northerner
The Rota steamroller will easily take this again, barring an Ignatieff style blowout. Only hope for the Conservatives here is after the next census re-distribution where possibly the north half of the seat gets snipped off and more added south and west of Trout Creek. Until then, this stays liberal.
08/08/21 Stevo
Don't underestimate the enduring Mike Harris conservatism in these parts, although it's unlikely to best the Liberals this time.
07/08/21 Dr Bear
My former riding was the second closest race in 2011, and would have stayed Liberal (barely) in that disaster of an election. That said, it quickly returned to the federal Liberal fold and will stay there this time.
06/08/21 J.F. Breton
Circonscription de tradition libérale, sauf en 2011 où les Conservateurs l'avaient emporté par une très courte marge de quelques voix. L'actuelle avance libérale dans les sondages nationaux laisse à penser qu'ils conserveront cette circonscription.
06/08/21 Branden
Speaker of the House Anthony Rota's riding! He lost this seat by just 18 votes in the Liberal rout of 2011, and won it back by a large margin in 2015. Unless the Liberal fortunes drastically change during the course of the election, this seat should go Liberal.

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