Election Prediction Project

Nickel Belt
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:48:55

Constituency Profile


Chénier, Andréane Simone

Gravelle, Craig

Hobbs, David

Humphrey, Charles

Serré, Marc G


Marc G Serré

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



26812.82 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marc G Serré ** 1904639.00%
Stef Paquette 1565632.10%
Aino Laamanen 1034321.20%
Casey Lalonde 26445.40%
Mikko Paavola 11592.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marc G. Serré 2102142.80%
Claude Gravelle ** 1855637.80%
Aino Laamanen 822116.70%
Stuart McCall 12172.50%
Dave Starbuck 980.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 590.13%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Nickel Belt
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

France Gélinas * 2315763.5%
Jo-Ann Cardinal 801821.99%
Tay Butt 31828.73%
Bill Crumplin 11373.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


19/09/21 jeff316
Andréanne may improve slightly upon Stef's result but really, with the Liberals polling at near majority territory, with Singh at the helm, with the PPC eating away anti-Liberal protest votes, with both NDP and Liberal candidates being Franco-Ontarian, with the sob story of someone hassling Serré in his office...this is as solid a call as you can make in Northern Ontario outside of Thunder Bay.
16/09/21 Physastr Master
There are three ridings on a knife-edge in polling agregations between the Liberals and NDP in Northern Ontario. I doubt they'll all flip, but I'd say the odds are that at least one will, maybe two. I'd say Nickel Belt and TB-Rainy River are about equally likely, with Sudbury a bit less likely, but Sudbury is notoriously unpredictable, so it wouldn't surprise me for Sudbury to flip and not the other two. That said, if I was operating this website, my election day prediction would probably pick one of these for an NDP flip, and Nickel Belt seems to be the flip people on this site are most open to. That said, most aggregators actually have TB-RR as the more likely flip, which is bizarrely not TCTC right now, so I might actually prefer the call being made there instead. When writing this I changed the destination riding between Nickel Belt and TB-RR a few times, so I'm not really seeing any special motivation for one over the other. They're both close and could both flip.
15/09/21 J.F. Breton
S'il devait y avoir un seul gain du NPD dans le Nord de l'Ontario, le plus probable serait ici. Terreau fertile pour les nژo-dژmocrates comme en font foi les rژsultats des derniڈres ژlections.
15/09/21 NJam101
This is a tough one to predict. I'm giving the edge to Serrژ. But Chژnier does have a good chance at winning under a scenario where the CPC wins government. I'm not sure if there are enough people abandoning the Liberals this time. I thought that it was going to be very close in 2019 but Serrژ managed to still get 39% of the votes against 32% for a fairly well known NDP candidate.
This riding is NOT majority francophone. But francophones make up just over 40% of the population.
09/09/21 Marjo
It's a close one, obviously, and usually is. That said, the NDP has the momentum overall. The lack of implication by the Liberals re: Université Laurentienne is a sore point, as the majority francophone riding is seeing their students being forced to go elsewhere for university education in French. The NDP - provincial and federal - has been very vocal and helpful. Union-friendly riding, in several domains. The Liberal incumbent is not very popular in the Greater Sudbury part of the riding. His name recognition and popularity is heavily concentrated in West Nipissing. NDP is more spread out. Conservatives and Greens are not factors, and never will be.
07/09/21 R.O.
Tough one to predict it has a long history of being a liberal/ndp swing riding although provincially it’s a very safe ndp riding. Marc Serre was first elected in 2015 a great year for the liberals yet riding itself a very close race with ndp. Who have found a new candidate once again and running Andreane Chenier . conservatives have also done better here when Aino Laamanen the candidate but have a new candidate this election Charles Humprey.
09/08/21 A.S.
(incidentally, in referring to the Liberal share being ‘halved on e-day’, I meant relative to the total 2019 number; that is, excluding advance and special balloting)
09/08/21 A.S.
There's no freaking way that the NDP machine in France Gelinas' provincial stronghold would leave the federal riding alone--any '19 shortfall w/Stef Paquette simply tokenly reflected a party that was verging on save-the-furniture mode until well into the election (the Libs still won on e-day, but w/a halved margin). Unfortunately, you can't wish away West Nipissing (not that its *fatal* or anything). And once again, that Northern Ontario CPC-gain tendency (whereas both Libs and NDP fell from '15)--though it was only good for a poll and a tie.
08/05/21 arik
This riding has always been a little topsey-turvy. I think the Liberal incumbent has done a decent job, but the riding needs better representation - sometimes that tends to be in opposition, like they do at the provincial level. One thing is for certain: to have any success in this riding, you needs to be bilingual.

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