Election Prediction Project

Niagara West
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:20:35

Constituency Profile


Allison, Dean

Bingham, Ian

Derkson, Shaunalee

Jonker, Harold

Kocsis, Joanna

Rahman, Nameer


Dean Allison

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



989.15 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Dean Allison ** 2444745.30%
Ian Bingham 1742932.30%
Nameer Rahman 654012.10%
Terry Teather 36206.70%
Harold Jonker 10191.90%
Miles Morton 8691.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dean Allison ** 2473248.80%
Phil Rose 1658132.70%
Nameer Rahman 580211.50%
Sid Frere 15113.00%
Harold Jonker 12342.40%
Allan de Roo 7971.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 11002.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Niagara West-Glanbrook
   (90.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (7.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. Catharines
   (1.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Sam Oosterhoff * 2439452.81%
Curtis Fric 1376929.81%
Joe Kanee 485910.52%
Jessica Tillmanns 25905.61%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8031.97%

17/09/21 Ed Ferrar
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Liberals are going to narrowly pick this riding up.
First, this is a conservative area, this riding elected an 18 year old as MPP simply because he had blue on his signs. However, the majority of conservative voters here are either populist or Christian right.
If you were going to pick a riding that is primed for a PPC candidate to do very well, this is it. O'Toole's pro-choice stances don't play well among the Dutch reform/bible belt Conservative voting base here, and his position on vaccine passports doesn't play well with the populist Con's. The PPC could easily get over 5,000 votes, finishing ahead of NDP and Greens.
The Liberals have a strong candidate here, the same candidate running here that they had in 2019, where they narrowed the margin of victory despite the Con's doing better and Lib's doing worse nationwide.
If the Liberals can hold their vote and do a bit better in Grimsby and Fonthill, that could be enough to swing this riding.
05/09/21 Doug
Agree with the other submissions here, the riding demographics are changing but nowhere near fast enough for Allison to lose. The riding also has enough of a die hard NDP core vote that the Liberals don't have as many votes to convert as in other suburbs/exurbs closer to Toronto.
About the only thing that could cost Allison the riding is a split to the right, with the PPC and CHP both fielding candidates here.
I still don't think it will be enough though, Allison wins although it might be marginally narrower than even 2019 was if he bleeds off more to his right.
25/08/21 R.O.
Dean Alliston has been mp since 2004 although ridings boundaries have changed since then. same riding also conservative provincially even as nearby ridings went ndp. Likely to stay conservative.
06/08/21 A.S.
For this to ‘only’ be 45%--Dean Allison's weakest result since his maiden effort in '04--is a sign of things shifting; but not to the point of opposition viability. Besides, I wouldn't just look to Toronto-expatriate moderation as a threat to CPC dominance, but to potential fragmentation on the right in case the Bible Belt flees to PPC or some Derek Sloan-ian entity.
08/05/21 Chris N
Long described as ‘Ontario's Bible Belt,’ the demographics of this region are changing, slowly. Many priced out Torontonians are moving to developments in Grimsby, Beamsville and the outskirts of St. Catharines. This is slowly changing the electorate, but not enough to reverse the CPC dominance in this riding. It will be interesting to see whether this riding stays a CPC stronghold 10 years from now, but until then it's staying blue.

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