Allison, Dean
	Bingham, Ian
	Derkson, Shaunalee
	Jonker, Harold
	Kocsis, Joanna
	Rahman, Nameer
Incumbent:
	Dean Allison

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			90838 86533 34827 33588 989.15 km² 91.80/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Dean Allison **	24447	45.30%
	Ian Bingham	17429	32.30%
	Nameer Rahman	6540	12.10%
	Terry Teather	3620	6.70%
	Harold Jonker	1019	1.90%
	Miles Morton	869	1.60%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Dean Allison **	24732	48.80%
	Phil Rose	16581	32.70%
	Nameer Rahman	5802	11.50%
	Sid Frere	1511	3.00%
	Harold Jonker	1234	2.40%
	Allan de Roo	797	1.60%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		26000	59.47%
		8400	19.21%
		6249	14.29%
		1970	4.51%
Other		1100	2.52%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Niagara West-Glanbrook    (90.42% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Welland    (7.94% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
St. Catharines    (1.64% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Sam Oosterhoff *	24394	52.81%
	Curtis Fric	13769	29.81%
	Joe Kanee	4859	10.52%
	Jessica Tillmanns	2590	5.61%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		10175	24.97%
		19482	47.80%
		7948	19.50%
		2348	5.76%
Other		803	1.97%

	17/09/21	Ed Ferrar 70.30.109.20
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Liberals are going to narrowly pick this riding up. First, this is a conservative area, this riding elected an 18 year old as MPP simply because he had blue on his signs. However, the majority of conservative voters here are either populist or Christian right. If you were going to pick a riding that is primed for a PPC candidate to do very well, this is it. O'Toole's pro-choice stances don't play well among the Dutch reform/bible belt Conservative voting base here, and his position on vaccine passports doesn't play well with the populist Con's. The PPC could easily get over 5,000 votes, finishing ahead of NDP and Greens. The Liberals have a strong candidate here, the same candidate running here that they had in 2019, where they narrowed the margin of victory despite the Con's doing better and Lib's doing worse nationwide. If the Liberals can hold their vote and do a bit better in Grimsby and Fonthill, that could be enough to swing this riding.
	05/09/21	Doug 173.45.200.118
Agree with the other submissions here, the riding demographics are changing but nowhere near fast enough for Allison to lose. The riding also has enough of a die hard NDP core vote that the Liberals don't have as many votes to convert as in other suburbs/exurbs closer to Toronto. About the only thing that could cost Allison the riding is a split to the right, with the PPC and CHP both fielding candidates here. I still don't think it will be enough though, Allison wins although it might be marginally narrower than even 2019 was if he bleeds off more to his right.
	25/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Dean Alliston has been mp since 2004 although ridings boundaries have changed since then. same riding also conservative provincially even as nearby ridings went ndp. Likely to stay conservative.
	06/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
For this to ‘only’ be 45%--Dean Allison's weakest result since his maiden effort in '04--is a sign of things shifting; but not to the point of opposition viability. Besides, I wouldn't just look to Toronto-expatriate moderation as a threat to CPC dominance, but to potential fragmentation on the right in case the Bible Belt flees to PPC or some Derek Sloan-ian entity.
	08/05/21	Chris N 24.36.32.209
Long described as ‘Ontario's Bible Belt,’ the demographics of this region are changing, slowly. Many priced out Torontonians are moving to developments in Grimsby, Beamsville and the outskirts of St. Catharines. This is slowly changing the electorate, but not enough to reverse the CPC dominance in this riding. It will be interesting to see whether this riding stays a CPC stronghold 10 years from now, but until then it's staying blue.