Baldinelli, Tony
	Barker, Brian
	Holm, Melanie
	Kaiser, Andrea
	Taras, Peter
Incumbent:
	Tony Baldinelli

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			136292 128357 60574 56046 508.81 km² 267.90/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Tony Baldinelli	24751	35.50%
	Andrea Kaiser	22690	32.50%
	Brian Barker	12566	18.00%
	Mike Strange	4997	7.20%
	Sandra O'Connor	3404	4.90%
	Alexander Taylor	968	1.40%
	Tricia O'Connor	358	0.50%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Rob Nicholson **	27235	42.10%
	Ron Planche	22318	34.50%
	Carolynn Ioannoni	13525	20.90%
	Steven Soos	1633	2.50%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		28748	53.26%
		12681	23.49%
		10206	18.91%
		2086	3.86%
Other		259	0.48%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Niagara Falls    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Wayne Gates *	30161	50.79%
	Chuck Mcshane	21126	35.58%
	Dean Demizio	5554	9.35%
	Karen Fraser	2057	3.46%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		7329	14.39%
		16702	32.80%
		24131	47.39%
		1724	3.39%
Other		1037	2.04%

	06/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Tony Baldinelli was first elected here in 2019 replacing long time mp Rob Nicholson who retired. The riding has been conservative since 2004 although had been liberal in the 90’s. it is held by the ndp provincially but Wayne Gates seems to have a strong personal following. Andrea Kaiser is back for the liberals and Brian Barker has returned as ndp candidate. But think riding will stay cpc if they were able to hold it last election . and Baldinelli is now the incumbent so better known .
	16/08/21	jeff316 104.222.127.128
All three major party candidates are taking a turn again. Wayne Gates's coattails resulted in a grand 18% of the vote in 2019 - the Ontario NDP isn't doing any better two years later and Jagmeet will only attract so much in a riding like this. With the unpopularity of the Conservatives, Kaiser should win this with about 5% or so.
	06/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
What's with this tendency to assume NF to be an unbreachable federal blue-collar Conservative stronghold? During the Harper years, it was really more of a Rob Nicholson riding than a CPC riding, and weak opposition allowed him to stay on in '15. And also, just because Mike Strange was ‘right-leaning’ doesn't mean his '19 votes would have defaulted into CPC; in fact, his strongest spots were those within urban NF which would have been strongest for Lib/NDP. It was an ‘outside’ vote, not a strict ‘Conservative proxy’ vote. And of course, CPC hasn't been polling well at large (though yes, O'Toole's been making overtures to the blue-collar voter), and it's a Baldinelli-Kaiser rematch, and the NDP will always be a wild card on Wayne Gates' coattails. So this is an interesting riding w/fluid possibilities; hardly a boring CPC rubber stamp, it's among the highest on their Ontario ‘vulnerability list’.
	07/06/21	KXS 99.247.196.32
A working class populist riding. Been a steady hold for the CPC since 2004, while voting in left-leaning MPPs like Kim Craitor and Wayne Gates. The 2019 result seemed close because right-leaning independent candidate Mike Strange took votes from the CPC. It was also an open seat. I suspect the CPC will hold on to this by a slightly larger margin.