Election Prediction Project

Niagara Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-14 23:18:37

Constituency Profile


Badawey, Vance

Kimmons, Michael

McCartney, Kurtis

McGlashan, Melissa

Speck, Graham


Vance Badawey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



301.26 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Vance Badawey ** 2029235.00%
April Jeffs 1798731.00%
Malcolm Allen 1546926.70%
Michael Tomaino 30545.30%
Andrew Sainz-Nieto 7761.30%
Robert Walker 770.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Vance Badawey 1951335.70%
Malcolm Allen ** 1721831.50%
Leanna Villella 1624829.70%
David Clow 13162.40%
Jody Di Bartolomeo 2910.50%
Ron J. Walker 960.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4450.92%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jeff Burch 2161844.23%
April Jeffs 1833337.51%
Benoit Mercier 577911.82%
Joe Dias 18033.69%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4351.02%

15/09/21 R.O.
Just noticed that poll but something about mainstreet saying the ndp is polling less here than 2019 seems difficult to believe as all polls show them doing better than last election. Looked back thru some past results for this riding and lowest recent ndp result was 26 % in 2019 , but even in 2000 they still got 14 % of the vote here a terrible year for them. Also managed around 30 % or more in all elections from 2004>2015 . so even without Malcom Allen as there candidate 19 % seems very low and likely the race here is much closer possibly still a 3 way race . Singh also made a campaign stop in the riding today , trudeau had been here earlier in campaign and Otoole yet to visit Niagara region.
14/09/21 George
Mainstreet has a healthy Liberal lead here. Among decided: 38 Liberal 29 Con 19 NDP. PPC at 11.
09/09/21 Predictions
3-way race, as it was in 2015 and 2019. The Libs have an incumbency advantage, and Badawey held on in 2019 by a similar margin as 2015. But Niagara Region as a whole might have an anti-LPC backlash because many of the industries in the area (tourism, trade) were hurt by the pandemic. This might increase PPC support, and in this kind of place the PPC won't just be drawing support from the CPC. The NDP should also benefit from economic anxieties with their populist message and promises to increase social spending. In any case, my view is that the incumbent party is always hurt the most by economic struggles, and that's not good for the LPC.
Overall, I think this is too close to call, but the Liberals are very vulnerable here. With a decent ground game this is a good pickup opportunity for the NDP, and the CPC could always slip through.
05/09/21 Wildflower
I got a feeling NDP will take back this riding because they have some people impacted by covid , job losses, etc
Tourism industry took huge hits from the pandemic. Plus, many people in Niagara falls do not want a 2 tier healthcare system, and they want more action on climate change, and better job creation with health benefits
02/09/21 KXS
This one is hard to predict. This was a competitive 3-way race in 2015 and 2019.
When O'Toole talks about workers rights and worker friendly policies...he is trying to make a direct appeal to ridings like Niagara Centre.
25/08/21 R.O.
This riding has flipped between the liberals and ndp in recent elections although conservatives have done well here too. Likely far too early to predict an outcome in this one as its often been a 3 way race. But if the ndp does better than expected in Ontario would have to be high on there list.
19/08/21 Chris N
With former NDP MP Malcom Allen running in Hamilton Mountain for a presumed easier race, it would be funny if the NDP ended up winning Niagara Centre in his absence. This could end up as the lone three-way race in the Golden Horseshoe.
16/08/21 jeff316
This should be a repeat of the last election with a bump on the Liberal total. Malcolm Allen never won by much even with a stronger NDP, and the kookier aspects of the Conservative mixed messaging on vaccines and social issues will turn off some voters but also should have some appeal in the more rural and religious parts of the riding.
14/08/21 Hammer
The demographics of Niagara Centre make it seem ripe for the Conservatives or NDP. Despite this, the Liberals have won the riding twice in a row. I expect another close three-way race.
06/08/21 A.S.
Given how the riding's rust-beltiness ticks off all the usual Obama/Trump checkmarks, I wouldn't be so brash as to declare this to be simply a Lib/NDP race in the making, notwithstanding CPC's current polling doldrums (and O'Toole *has* been openly wooing rust-belt voters). Though you simply can't beat the NDP's Hail-Mary resilience; sure, in '19, former MP Malcolm Allen finished 3rd at 27%, but early riding polling had him closer to the low-to-mid-teens that former *Liberal* MP John Maloney earned in '11. And Jagmeet's polling better now than in '19. Indeed, that Obama-Trumpness is of the sort that could plausibly turn Badawey into the only 3rd-place Lib incumbent this time around. Now, I'm not saying that it *would* happen--though if it did, it'd mean that in this riding, 4 out of a string of 5 elections would have seen a current or former MP in 3rd place. (And in the 5th, the defeatee finished closer to the 3rd place than the 1st place candidate.)
08/07/21 Jade French
Niagara Centre is bound to be one of the closest races in the the country. The liberal incumbent is unknown on the hill and has little to show to his community but he is generally liked. The conservative candidate is a Welland city councillor with a reputation for being a blowhard but he has a bit of a following. The NDP are running a new candidate, Melissa McGlashan who is an active volunteer for a huge range of community organisations and advocacy groups but who might lack name recognition outside of that circle.
It'll definitely be a close race between the NDP and the Liberals in this riding. At this stage, it's too close to call but I'd say the odds are very very very slightly in Vance Badawey's favour but it'll still be a horse race.
08/05/21 Chris N
In the last two elections, this was one of the few three-way races in the Golden Horseshoe. The Liberal incumbent has a low profile on the Hill but a solid presence in the community. I anticipate this will be another horse race.

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