Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:48:06

Constituency Profile


Baxter, Dorian

Flemming, Tim

Gagnon, Andre

Kelly, Yvonne

Kim, Harold

Van Bynen, Tony


Tony Van Bynen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



59.35 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tony Van Bynen 2648843.10%
Lois Brown 2325237.80%
Yvonne Kelly 657610.70%
Walter Bauer 35515.80%
Dorian Baxter 9011.50%
Andrew McCaughtrie 5881.00%
Laurie Goble 1040.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kyle Peterson 2550845.20%
Lois Brown ** 2405742.60%
Yvonne Kelly 48068.50%
Vanessa Long 13312.40%
Dorian Baxter 7621.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 9762.06%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.08% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.92% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Christine Elliott 2481347.71%
Melissa Williams 1240523.85%
Chris Ballard * 1184022.76%
Michelle Bourdeau 18593.57%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 13713.17%

06/09/21 Nick M.
For the CPC to flip the seat, Erin has to convince soccer moms he isn’t scary.
I think he has done that.
Daily cummuters here are feeling the price at the pump pinch. Future breeding ground for the Doug Ford voter.
04/09/21 Matt B.
There is a groundswell of support for the CPC in this riding. 338 currently has the CPC at 41% of the vote with a 67% of winning against the incumbent Liberals. This was a CPC riding prior to Trudeau in 2015, and looks to be trending back in accordance with the leader's declining popularity.
02/09/21 KXS
As a two term mayor of Newmarket, I'm sure Tony Van Bynen is well known in the community.
That being said, I don't think he is a uniquely popular politician that will overperform in this riding. If the Liberals and Tories are tied in Ontario, this riding will go Conservative.
I think it's good that the Conservatives decided to go with Aurora municipal politician Harold Kim over Lois Brown who has more losses than wins as a candidate here.
27/08/21 R.O.
Tony Van Bynen was first elected in 2019 so not a well known mp although was involved in municipal politics in Newmarket before going federal. In an odd twist the conservatives switched candidates and choose not to go with former mp and long time candidate Lois Brown and instead nominated Harold Kim a town councillor from Newmarket. Typically a swing riding with close races between liberals and conservatives.
23/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead 14 point GTHA lead and 49% support in York Region. I think this can be safely switched to a Liberal from TCTC. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
04/08/21 A.S.
Actually, relative to Richmond Hill and King-Vaughan and AORRH, Newmarket-Aurora *did* take more of a step t/w the ‘decisive’ (that is, a more than 5-point margin, and w/the former CPC office-holder now below 40%, and all of that in spite of a new Lib candidate)--and remember, too, how provincially in '18, Christine Elliott had the lowest winning share in York Region. So it's already undergoing a bit of a soft morph--though paradoxically, the parts with the most growth (particularly NE Aurora) have been the most Con-trending, perhaps because they have more in common (polyglot demographics and all) w/the growth further S. But even that wasn't enough to reverse the trend in '19.
06/08/21 Marco Ricci
Aurora Councillor Harold Kim has beaten former Conservative MP Lois Brown for the CPC nomination. This could help the Conservatives in the Aurora part of the riding, but Liberal MP/former Newmarket mayor Tony Van Bynen may still have the edge overall.
30/07/21 Stevo
No comments yet? I guess there's really not much to say. Like Richmond Hill, it's remained close the past two elections and will likely do so once more. Remains to be seen if young 416 pandemic refugees will move this more decisively into the Liberal column.

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