Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:47:22

Constituency Profile


Arya, Chandra

Devine, Sean

Kubanek, Gordon

Nera, Jay

Triemstra, Matt


Chandra Arya

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



171.94 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Chandra Arya ** 3193345.90%
Brian St. Louis 2332033.50%
Zaff Ansari 910413.10%
Jean-Luc Cooke 43796.30%
Azim Hooda 6871.00%
Dustan Wang 1600.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Chandra Arya 3401752.40%
Andy Wang 2344236.10%
Sean Devine 53248.20%
Jean-Luc Roger Cooke 15132.30%
Jesus Cosico 4160.60%
Hubert Mamba 690.10%
Harry Splett 660.10%
Tony Seed 410.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lisa Macleod * 2389945.13%
Zaff Ansari 1511028.53%
Lovina Srivastava 1038319.61%
James O'Grady 27395.17%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6231.47%

16/09/21 R.O.
Nanos has never even released numbers for eastern Ontario yet alone specific to Ottawa, seems odd to predict this one based on his polls. Other polls show a closer race in Ontario than his poll. The provincial liberals have never won this riding in recent memory its held by pc mpp Lisa Macleod at the provincial level, that being said she’s personally popular and has never really faced any credible challengers or had to run against an incumbent. Clearly a race between Chandra Ayra and Matt Triemstra for this suburban Ottawa seat.
16/09/21 Drew613
Nanos has come out with an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals back up to 40% support in the province. Liberal support is typically underestimated in Ottawa sub-samples. Cases in point 2019 federal and 2018 provincial elections, where for the latter 3 of 7 Liberal MPP survivors are from Ottawa. I think the Liberals will hold Nepean, even if their vote share goes down, but I think the CPC vote share will go down too thanks to the PPC 'surge'. Overall, I think the NCR will be status quo with the only blue around the Capital continuing to be in Carleton. https://www.cp24.com/news/housing-continues-to-top-covid-19-as-key-ballot-box-issue-for-gta-voters-poll-1.5586585
15/09/21 Cadesuffolk
This is the main Conservative target for the last week of the campaign. Resources and volunteers are being moved from other Eastern Ontario ridings to give a final push here. Does this mean that they consider Kanata in the bag or out of reach... i dunno.
10/09/21 Alex B
Matt Triemstra is running an energetic campaign. Coupled with Liberal numbers sagging in Ontario and this is really in play. I give the Conservatives a narrow edge if trends continue.
03/09/21 Matt B.
338 has classified Nepean as a toss-up between the CPC and LPC. Polling has really tightened up in the last week, with a edge to the Liberals (but within the margin of error). Signage seems evenly mixed. Parts of this riding went blue before reconstitution, but the Liberals to have the incumbency advantage with Chandra Arya - however the opposite is true with the incumbency of Trudeau which may work against them. The outcome of this riding is impossible to say at this point. It is in play.
25/08/21 R.O.
On paper looks relatively safe for the liberals but in 2015 looked good for the cpc based on past numbers . feel like this suburban part of Ottawa has more swing to it, and ridings seem to flip between liberals and conservatives every now and then. Chandra Ayra is making his 3rd run in the riding , Matt Triemstra is the new conservative candidate. Outcome will depend how the election turns out in Ontario.
04/08/21 KXS
Liberals wont this rather comfortably in 2015 and 2019.
The race was a bit closer in 2019 due to an uptick of NDP and GPC support, while the CPC vote remained stagnant.
Like many other suburban Ontario ridings, unless the political climate changes significantly this will remain Liberal.
08/08/21 A.S.
Another suburban Ottawa '19 case of both the Libs and CPC down from '15, but the Libs substantially more, and NDP/Green basically doubling; except that here unlike in Kanata-Carleton, the Grits kept their double-digit share margin (the absence of K-C's rural hinterland helps). Arya might be suburban-Grit wallpaper, but the climate doesn't call for much different--and even when this territory was electing Skippy, it was a ‘parked vote’ buoyed mainly by the rural parts. And now there's virtually no more rural parts to speak of.

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