Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-11 10:57:12

Constituency Profile


Hassan, Farina

Hill, Chris

Rattan, Jasveen

Spizzirri, Natalie

Valdez, Rechie

Wolosz, Gurdeep


Gagan Sikand

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



46.43 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Gagan Sikand ** 2961850.40%
Ghada Melek 1947433.10%
Samir Girguis 603610.30%
Chris Hill 26884.60%
Thomas McIver 7061.20%
Natalie Spizzirri 2430.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gagan Sikand 2679247.80%
Brad Butt ** 2262140.40%
Fayaz Karim 50409.00%
Chris Hill 12932.30%
Yegor Tarazevich 2530.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 100.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (85.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (14.84% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Nina Tangri 2087943.53%
Jacqueline Gujarati 1239325.84%
* Bob Delaney * 1234425.74%
Abhijeet Manay 13492.81%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8612.21%

17/09/21 R.O.
Not sure where all these posts claiming huge liberal leads in the gta are finding there information from as most polls I’ve seen show a relatively close race in Ontario. Yesterday Ipsos released a 905 specific poll which has the liberals ahead but only by a small margin. There numbers were 37 lib , 34 cpc and 23 ndp . they didn’t find much support for green or ppc in this area either. These numbers would seem to indicate many ridings in the 905 are still going to be relatively close on election day.
11/09/21 Drew613
Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Halton & Peel. With a lead like that, none of the Mississauga ridings are at risk of flipping. This is also pretty much unchanged from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. Liberal hold. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view
09/09/21 Sauga Sally
No one knows who Rechie Valdez is... the Liberals parachuting a Brampton candidate into Mississauga is questionable. If the tide swings at the debate tomorrow this will be a Conservative pick-up.
07/09/21 KXS
It seems like the Conservative momentum and Liberal decline has stalled. As a result, the Liberals should be able to ridings such as Mississauga Streetsville without much difficulty.
06/09/21 PM
Good to see Chris back and representing the GPC. Solid candidate who should help increase our votes. With probably more people voting CPC & NDP in this riding, this will still lean Liberal but.....
05/09/21 Nick M.
If this is suppose to be Fortress Mississauga, why has Trudeau made two stops here by the mid point of the campaign?
Something has to give in Canadas largest unknown city.
31/08/21 Not Non-Partisan
No Liberal incumbent, Tory trend. Like Butt in ‘11, Jasveet will win here. A rising tide lifts all boats.
26/08/21 Nick M.
This election can be like the 2006, 2008 campaigns, where they were incremental change, in which this riding is in play. Or a change election where the incumbent history doesn’t matter.
In either case this is shaping up to be leaning conservative. And most of Mississauga is in play to boot.
17/08/21 Marco Ricci
Gagan Sikand announced today that he will not be seeking re-election:
The Liberals are probably still favoured here, although the margin may narrow.
16/08/21 R.O.
Just noticed this riding has no incumbent as mp Gagan Sikand is not running again and been replaced by a new liberal candidate named Rechie Valdez . mostly a liberal riding in recent years but could be a more competitive race with no well known candidates .
Date 202 A.S.
CPC candidate controversy worked on Sikand's behalf in '19; like Iqra Khalid to the S, he went from non-majority to majority--though inlike Khalid, he's never been a star; and his recent medical-leave-of-absence circumstance poses problems, to say the least. So calling this Liberal is really calling it ‘generic Liberal’, under the circumstance, unless an opposition *leader*, never mind candidate, rises to the ‘you have an alternative’ occasion. (The reason why I emphasize leader over candidate is because it's 905-belt Mississauga, the land of the electoral rubber stamp.)

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