Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:58:42

Constituency Profile


Akbar, Nadeem

Haddad, Shibli

Kowalchuk, Chris

Sahi, Muhammad Riaz

van Koeverden, Adam


Adam van Koeverden

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



446.55 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Adam van Koeverden 3088251.70%
Lisa Raitt ** 2156436.10%
Farina Hassan 38516.50%
Eleanor Hayward 27694.60%
Percy Dastur 6131.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Lisa Raitt ** 2237845.40%
Azim Rizvee 1994040.40%
Alex Anabusi 536610.90%
Mini Batra 11312.30%
Chris Jewell 4931.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1270.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Parm Gill 1824941.67%
Indira Naidoo-Harris * 1306429.83%
Brendan Smyth 974022.24%
Eleanor Hayward 22005.02%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4371.35%

12/09/20 Chris N
Months after my initial prediction, I still have this as a Liberal hold, although the race has certainly tightened. One indication of a closer gap is AVK suddenly spending all of his time in campaigning in Milton, after a summer of travelling around the GTHA to join canvasses with his Liberal colleagues and volunteers. Still, I bet this is a precautionary move, and not an indication of an impending disaster. The CPC might slightly improve on their 2019 margins, but I still expect AVK to be re-elected next week.
09/09/21 Red Fred
This riding will stay Liberal. The disrespect shown by the Con candidate to Lisa by removing her from the EDA has irked long time CON voters. Many regular CON volunteers are sitting this one out. Even Lisa doesn’t have a CON sign on her lawn, lol. Besides all the CON drama in this riding, Adam has done more for this riding and been way for focused that when Lisa was MP. Even when previously elected, he was still out meeting people and door knocking. He is everywhere in the community. This will be a big win and watch for his margin of victory grow over the last time.
05/09/21 seasaw
@Dr Bear, yes the bread and butter domestic issues are more important than anything else, and it is those issues that the Liberals get F- on. With the out of this world prices in housing, rent, groceries etc and the sharp rise in crime, the Liberals really don't have a very good record. That being said, AVK is still favourite to win gold here, however, there's a slight chance that he may end up with a silver
23/08/21 R.O.
One of a number of seats that looked safe for the liberals at start of campaign but now perhaps worth a second look into the actual race here. Adam Van Koeverden was elected in 2019 in an upset win over long time mp Lisa Raitt who many like myself felt would of survived the challenge as she was high profile and a well respected mp. She’s not back this election replaced by a new lesser known cpc candidate Nadeem Akbar. Milton is a growing riding with many new residents and homes being built so a constantly changing riding . but typically a swing riding provincially and federally as its bounced between the liberals and conservatives.
14/08/21 Hammer
AVK won this riding by a larger margin than many expected in 2019. With a lower profile candidate for the CPC in 2021, AVK should win fairly easily.
06/08/21 A.S.
Even accounting for Lib-favourable population growth, the scale of AVK's '19 victory was a shock--then again, it alluded to the likelihood that Lisa Raitt only survived in '15 because her Lib opponent that year wasn't up to snuff. Well, in '19, up-to-snuff snuffed her out, almost like this was the most authentically ‘unfinished business’ of all steals. (It was also one of the more authentically ‘strategic’ results: the NDP lost 40% of its share, almost certainly due to left-vote momentum t/w the Libs.) And proof that it was all about the growth: on the electoral map, the remaining ‘blue’ polls were overwhelmingly in the rural parts and in Old Oakville, while the ‘red’ polls were concentrated within the collar of post-Y2K sprawl.
03/08/21 Marco Ricci
In what was expected to be a close race, Adam van Koeverden beat Conservative Deputy Leader Lisa Raitt by 15 points. van Koeverden is likely looking at a comfortable re-election.
31/07/21 Dr Bear
Seesaw, I think you are mistaking Milton for Thornhill or Mount Royal. Van Koeverden’s stance on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict will have no drastic effect on his electoral chances. Anyone who feels strongly about such things is already entrenched in the CPC voting block. No, what will swing voters will be bread and butter domestic issues, which this far have favoured the Liberals.
30/05/21 seasaw
Adam VanKoeverden's decision to support the boycott of Israel as well as his stance on the Uyghur Muslims, may come back to haunt him
27/05/21 MF
Lisa Raitt, while a well-liked MP could not survive the red shift of the suburban GTA and strong candidacy of Adam Van Koeverden. With the demographic changes, it looks like Milton is another Liberal riding in the 905.
11/05/21 Chris N
This was a very high profile race in 2019. Raitt was well liked on the Hill and had a national profile. However, van Koeverden was a charismatic candidate with a lot of party money and resources, as well as national polling, working in his favour. I anticipate that AVK will get re-elected.

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