Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:04:54

Constituency Profile


Chiang, Paul

Kao, Elvin

Qureshi, Aftab

Saroya, Bob


Bob Saroya

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



84.34 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bob Saroya ** 2613348.90%
Alan Ho 2048438.40%
Gregory Hines 35246.60%
Elvin Kao 23944.50%
Sarah Chung 8611.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bob Saroya 2460549.40%
Bang-Gu Jiang 2159643.30%
Colleen Zimmerman 25285.10%
Elvin Kao 11102.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3760.96%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (52.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (47.58% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Billy Pang 2930562.43%
Amanda Yeung Collucci 845618.01%
Sylvie David 777816.57%
Deborah Moolman 9962.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5461.58%

12/09/20 Hans
Saroya may have the advantage in lawn signs, but most of his are on public corners. If you look at the signs on individual houses, I think that this riding is a close race between Chiang and Saroya.
Saroya has done a lot of things for this riding, but he is only a conservative when its convenient for him. He hardly ever mentioned Otoole on his website or the CPC in his mailings. His biggest problem is that he hasn't distanced himself from the racists and bigots in the conservative party. He should have been out in front and condemned Derek Sloan but instead, he cozied up to the likes of Pierre Poilivre.
This is going to be a close race.
19/08/21 R.O.
Bob Saroya has held this riding since 2015 which was a surprise to many as all other nearby ridings other than Thornhill went liberal that year. The fact he’s managed to win here says something about his effectiveness as an mp and campaigner during an election.
04/08/21 A.S.
Despite the strength of Alan Ho's Lib candidacy, the Con margin nearly doubled in '19--but that's the difference btw/everyone expecting the Libs to win in '15, and everyone expecting the Cons to win in '19. And considering how this was the 2nd best provincial Tory riding in '18, for Saroya to lose share and manage barely over a 10-point margin must have counted as ‘disappointing’. And given polling, a submajority hat trick seems very much a likelihood. Not so much defeat--though I wouldn't rule that out in case O'Toole does a Dion or Iggy.
29/05/21 KXS
I think the Conservatives will hold on to this riding, albeit a narrower margin than 2019.
I don't think O'Toole is doing anything to piss off right-leaning Chinese-Canadian voters in Markham.
The Liberals actually fielded a strong candidate in the last election, local councillor Alan Ho. I don't think they will be fielding a strong candidate this time around.

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