Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-06 01:06:29

Constituency Profile


Felian, Melissa

Lee, Mimi

Ng, Mary

Pashaev, Ilia

Sahbaz, Paul


Mary Ng

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



41.89 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mary Ng ** 2389953.90%
Alex Yuan 1531934.60%
Paul Sahbaz 32337.30%
Chris Williams 12472.80%
Peter Remedios 3570.80%
Josephbai Macwan 2760.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John McCallum ** 2387855.70%
Jobson Easow 1384932.30%
Senthi Chelliah 459510.70%
Joshua Russell 5351.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1870.49%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (75.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (24.84% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Logan Kanapathi 1894350.45%
Juanita Nathan 916024.4%
Cindy Hackelberg 801021.33%
Caryn Bergmann 8592.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3941.26%

04/09/21 seasaw
Mary Ng is in trouble with elections Canada and may be even in trouble with the law. But that's not going to have much of an effect on the election results, because one a person is innocent until proven guilty and no allegation against her has been proven and two, in a bad year, the Liberals still manage to get close to 50% of the vote. Liberal hold
04/08/21 A.S.
Things tightened here over '15, though not as much as in the byelection; and CPC certainly made inroads among the Milliken-zone Chinese--but not nearly enough to endanger the seat at large; what helped was an Armadale-end counter-swing off '15 NDP entrails (the ghost of Rathika-ism). The scale of defeat was surely among the Cons' big disappointments, given how they were hoping for Unionville coattails among the Sino-Canadian vote--and if they couldn't come close *then*, they're surely nowhere near a steal *now*.
06/08/21 Dr Bear
If this riding existed in 2011, the Liberals would have held it. Votes for the Liberals and Conservatives remained largely unchanged between 2015 and 2019. I strongly suspect the Liberals will hold it.
04/08/21 KXS
Mary Ng won this riding by a comfortable margin in 2019. I don't see anything that will change that dynamic this time around.
04/08/21 Lolitha
Won by a healthy margin by the Liberals in 2019 and 2015 (over 50% of the vote), Ontario polling has not budged very much from 2019, no sign of danger for the Liberals here.

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