Election Prediction Project

London West
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:46:02

Constituency Profile


Boudreau, Jacques Y

Flack, Rob

Kayabaga, Arielle

Lewkowitz, Shawna

McMullen, Mike


Kate Young

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



77.13 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kate Young ** 3062243.00%
Liz Snelgrove 1991027.90%
Shawna Lewkowitz 1522021.40%
Mary Ann Hodge 38275.40%
Mike Mcmullen 11711.60%
Jacques Boudreau 5230.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kate Young 3116745.80%
Ed Holder ** 2403635.30%
Matthew Rowlinson 1008714.80%
Dimitri Lascaris 19182.80%
Jacques Y. Boudreau 7321.10%
Michael Lewis 870.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 590.10%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   London West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Peggy Sattler * 3264455.33%
Andrew Lawton 1713329.04%
Jonathan Hughes 58479.91%
Pamela Reid 22113.75%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 11192.14%

19/09/21 JJ
I’ve driven around neighborhoods in the riding. There are definitely more blue signs. This race it TCTC but red probably won’t win. Chances are , in order, probably blue winning followed by orange followed by red.
19/09/21 prognosticator15
My final prediction here is probabilities-only based (as I made for Kitchener Centre), and much like the close calls this site has to make for most remaining ridings, with some intuition in play. The sign war and booklet-distribution war indicate CONs-NDP competition only, but Libs are not collapsing, also have some lawn signs out. Their candidate is weak (and I doubt personality is an asset) and what keeps them afloat is extension of large University-linked London North Centre influence (residences by faculty, staff, and University/public-sector related well-to-do interests) that creates stable Lib vote - they prefer (by a clear majority) Libs to less reliable and potentially (THEIR) prosperity-hitting left 'fleece the rich' agitators of the NDP (while Libs have an image of fleecing mostly productive/ producing interests, it seems!), hence Libs still can win, but it is less likely than the two other options. What swings it to Rob Flack is that NDP and Lib vote is unlikely to align here or to switch enough to reduce the other progressive party to single digits or low double digits. Most certainly past NDP vote will not switch due to a strong 'all but Liberal' streak in this election in this part of Ontario; I think Libs will lose much of their past vote to both NDP and Cons. The PPC factor is minor in an urban riding (not an impression created by noisy PPC rallies, but true), and many of its own supporters will simply cast a clothespin vote for Cons (i.e. for less objectionable candidate with a realistic win chance) rather than waste it. Of the two top options, the riding only slightly leans NDP demographically, but in this election it is counterbalanced by Flack appeal to the undecided in apartment buildings and many areas usually missed by Cons campaigns, by a well known name, and by greater difficulties NDP might have bringing THEIR soft supporters to the polls. With that, again, it is probabilities-only game, with chances of 1)Cons 2)NDP and 3)Libs squeaking through (as kingstonstudent predicts). Thanks to Kingstonstudent and GoneFishing for valuable comments (and hope, GoneFishing, it's nothing personal re. good mayor Ed Holder -certainly he was a well known name back in 2008 as well!) - we'll see which of the three different predictions plays out after the Election Day in the riding we all know well.
19/09/21 Gone Fishing
Home riding my final answer I predict an NDP win here. Biggest reasoning is a gut feel. I do feel the Liberal candidate is viewed a little bit opportunistic and I feel the riding I does not have the conservative base is aging and not in it as much as they could be. I’m not an NDP fan I just see a lot of split signs in my riding where a household will have both a liberal and dipper sing on the lawn and a lot more of the NDP signs are more prominent. I’m not as convinced that NDP support will vote strategically as in past. They don’t like trudeau any more than O’Toole.
Had Singh played the anti liberal card more in this campaign more than London West might have flipped.
Please remember I rarely get it right here at home.
14/09/21 kingstonstudent
The ingredients are here for a razor-sharp three-way race. In the first place, the national Liberals have evidently not managed to reach their campaign objectives of winning majority-adjacent support and sidelining the opposition. What this means at the local level is that you can expect a dip in their support, especially considering the Liberals' successes federally over the last 5 years have somewhat hidden the long-term decline of the Liberal brand in Southwestern Ontario, which apart from their weak vote totals in the rural areas and complete annihilation provincially can be seen in the relatively low vote totals they get even when they do win - Chretien or Martin-era numbers are thin on the ground here, unlike in Toronto or even Eastern Ontario. If there's a problem with Arielle Kayabaga, it's not her association with city council, which leaving aside one's personal political beliefs is not nearly as unpopular as it was during the Fontana era. It's that Kayabaga's ward 13 has almost no overlap with London West except for a small stretch of Riverside Drive. Most of the time accusations of opportunism connected to things like that don't make much of a difference, even though it makes her a little more unknown then you would expect. If there's a saving grace for Kayabaga, it's that she's far more charismatic than Kate Young and will be relying on that personality to stop the vote bleeding. As for the Tories, Gone Fishing is correct that Rob Flack, while a strong candidate, doesn't come close to the appeal that Ed Holder had. Ed Holder was always able to earn significant support in Wortley Village, but the Village these days is almost exclusively a Liberal-NDP contest. Despite the successes of the federal Conservative campaign their vote could actually drop here due to the PPC siphoning away support. Finally, the NDP's strength in Old South and the inroads they've made into Oakridge and the suburbs (witness Peggy Sattler's performances provincially) plus the absence of a Green Party will make them unusually competitive, even though my intuition tells me the Liberals will hold onto this by a whisker.
09/09/21 nysuloem
Even before the election, the Conservative candidate was filling mailboxes with flyers, including letters ‘From the Desk of Erin O'Toole’. Once the election began, the Conservative candidate was pounding the pavement, visiting my neighbourhood on Day 1, though bypassing my house due to the orange sign in the front lawn. It just feels like the Conservatives want this riding more than any other party. And, as I drive around the riding, I'm seeing a lot of blue signs on front lawns, but hardly any others. Given the national shift toward the Conservatives that seems to be taking place at the moment, I think the Conservatives will take this riding.
06/09/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as liberal mp Kate Young decided to not run again. The riding has flipped between the liberals and conservatives in recent years . having been cpc in 2008-11 elections when current london mayor Ed Holder was mp. it somehow went ndp provincially by a large margin in 2018 as provincial ndp swept the city of London. mostly new candidates Arielle Kayabaga liberal and Rob Flack conservatives, Shawna Lewkowitz is back as the ndp candidate. This riding has no green candidate this year. Still early to predict this one
02/09/21 Gone Fishing
I’m still in the TCTC column but that can change. I would like to agree and disagree with prognosticator’s lengthy commentary on the riding I have lived in for 25 years plus.
I agree Rob Flack is a strong candidate and one of the stronger candidates that the Conservatives have nominated in a long time. However the fandom goes over the top when suggesting that Ed Holder was lesser known in this riding when he first ran. His profile was very high in the London business community and his work with various community efforts like the food bank’s business cares food drive.
I have on occasion had opportunity to speak with both men and they are quality candidates so I don’t think saying either is more recognizable is accurate.
There is no question the liberal candidate is a flaky opportunistic candidate. But opportunism is something that has been a hallmark of team trudeau,
I also think there is a pretty fair assessment of the socialist party’s candidate and the general brushstrokes of the city council are not badly portrayed.
Mike McMullen or more aptly Mike ‘WHO THE HELL IS THAT?’ Having both a mother and father as I presume he has is not exactly a candidate of profile. There are two types of London West Tories those who were PCs and always vote blue and those who came from the reform movement let’s call them the radical Tories..
London West’s ‘radical Tories’ had some high profile board members not the least of which were Ian Brodie, Salim Mansur and former candidate AL Gretzky. I know a lot of other past board members personally and I can state 100% that this is not a group that is wiling to go down the rabbit hole to the far right.
They were hijacked by the alt-right and the social conservatives and know that you will never form a government that is conservative without moving toward the middle.
if the NDP win this riding and they may, it is because the liberal vote here collapses like it did in the provincial elections. I think that a lot of the progressive vote is split, just today I see 7 homes with lawn signs that endorse both the libs and the dips.
Last I just cannot stress enough London West may be the lowest profile bellwether riding in Ontario if not Canada.
You don’t HAVE to win London West to form a government but it sure as hell makes it easier. Think of London West as the most conservative riding in the city by that I don’t mean ideology or policy but ‘let’s stick to what we know’ sort of thing. That’s why Trudeau 1 and 2, Mulroney, Harper and Jean Chrétien have won here locally while forming government none were radical replacements of a previous government but fresh faces to tired ones.
The same can be said for Harris and McGuinty till the same virtue signalling by the provincial libs threw a great soclitor general under the bus. The NDP vote I believe has been rage against them far more than spite of Doug Ford although I think of all the names mentioned as premier and prime ministers by me, Ford and Bob Rae are the two most radical and I don’t see my stodgy riding jumping to be first on the Jagmeet Singh bandwagon, not yet.
TCTC but leaning toward a close dipper con election night fight.

A bit of a wild card, more as a spoiler to NDP or liberal fortunes there is a green movement even if there is no real Green Party leadership this election.
02/09/21 prognosticator15
This riding was called before the Lib candidate was announced, but it is a very tight TCTC race. First, Lib candidate Kayabaga is weak, a once only elected councillor in London downtown area that is outside of London West, as a leftist candidate. She has few accomplishments and is really an identitarian candidate only whose promotion to a candidate relies on Lib propaganda on 'diversity' and such, on race and gender. She may still win relying on substantial hard Lib support (on those who vote Lib without looking at a candidate), on those who vote for a nice promotion picture (not many) and on those woke voters who are manipulated by unfree media - and nearly all media is unfree progressive machine today. However, she cannot rely on a celebrity status of Kate Young whose extra percentage in 2019 above never-to-be-relied upon local opinion polls was undoubtedly accounted for by appeal to a crucial mid-aged and senior demographics watching her on TV in late 20th century. Discounting this 'extra' percentage for Young, Kayabaga is at a disadvantage to NDP's second time candidate Lewkowitz, from experienced indoctrination section of the higher education (King's Collge) part of leftist control oligarchy, in particular in the fight for the mostly younger woke, a crucial left support group. By way of signs and local activities, it is in fact the NDP and the Cons who have most active campaigns and may even emerge as the top protagonists. I would give a slight edge to Cons at present due to their candidate, Rob Flack, a CEO of a locally known company and a past manager of London Airport. He is even better known than Ed Holder was in his original 2008 run, and is well endorsed locally, likely being politically strongest CPC candidate in a while in the whole region. As for the riding demographics, it is true that since 2014 when progressives got in control of the city council (still in place after 2018 despite a nominally right-of-centre mayor), their leaders (Councillor Jesse Helmer, a personal partner of past and future Lib political candidate Kate Graham, councillor Turner and others) have done a lot of damage in urban intensification of London (with the help of developers and governments subsidizing transportation and other questionable projects) to increase the numbers of their supporters in what 20 years ago was a nice spacious city, and Kayabaga joined this sleazy urban machine in 2018, BUT 1) it is unclear whether this is a Lib, an NDP or, to a lesser extent, a new PPC support such ugly urbanization has created and 2) it is not necessarily a demographic change of immediate electoral impact. Flack's strong candidacy is weakened by the fact he has to watch his back in the well advertised (as all PPC candidates are in southwestern Ontario) Mike McMullen; it is my estimate that if he gets above 3% of vote, he will start eating directly into Cons support rather than attract those not voting for any major party ordinarily. It ultimately comes to whether Cons soft voters dislike Libs more than they like a more ideologically consistent party; as long as at least weakening the Libs is perceived as the major election goal, and a realistic one, such voters will stay with Cons in an urban competitive riding - and at least a weaker vaccine mandate than the Libs promise may help. And Trudeau will not help a lot in pulling candidate over the finish line this time, the prime of his popularity among progressives is over. At the moment, this is the closest riding in the London and area, and any of the three major parties can win on election night.
27/08/21 Gone Fishing
I won’t call my home Riding just yet. But, I do call to attention this is although not perfect, a bellwether riding.
Governments don’t often change without a win in London West.
When the Conservatives re-merged it took a bit to turf the Liberals (they still held it for the first minority- maybe both?).
Tom Hockin in Mulroney era Barnes with Chrétien and finally Holder with Harper.
The NDP did not too bad last time and the candidate is back, it’s a provincial dipper seat.
It’s a prett diverse riding watch it in the 20th
04/07/21 Chris N
The Liberals won this seat by large margins in the 2015 and 2019 elections. I expect they will keep this seat in the next election.
08/08/21 A.S.
An open Liberal seat--in fact, they did better here than in LNC last time--and yet another case of a re-running NDP candidate who won more polls than CPC and who *might* be poised to overtake them for a boosted-by-provincial-incumbency 2nd. Though it's the more historically ‘Con-friendly’ London riding, so there's more ground to make up. And barring Fanshawe-boosted Jagmeet overdrive, it just makes the Libs safer--but yes, it's come to this: all 3 London ridings being more NDP-winnable than CPC-winnable. (Hey, at least Con-partisans can satisfy themselves with London West's former Harper-era MP now being Mayor.)

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