Election Prediction Project

London North Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-29 13:43:47

Constituency Profile


Emery, Marc

Fragiskatos, Peter

Gallant, Stephen

Hodge, Mary Ann

Prout, Dirka


Peter Fragiskatos

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



58.66 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Peter Fragiskatos ** 2724742.70%
Sarah Bokhari 1506623.60%
Dirka Prout 1488723.40%
Carol Dyck 48727.60%
Salim Mansur 15322.40%
Clara Sorrenti 1370.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Fragiskatos 3242750.50%
Susan Truppe ** 1999031.10%
German Gutierrez 942314.70%
Carol Dyck 22863.60%
Marvin Roman 1450.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2110.39%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   London North Centre
   (92.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   London West
   (7.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Terence Devin Kernaghan 2575747.6%
Susan Truppe 1670130.86%
Kate Graham 850115.71%
Carol Dyck 24934.61%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8291.81%

19/09/21 prognosticator15
I confirm my Liberal prediction here, in spite of a rough Lib national campaign. I mostly agree with Kingstonstudent on riding voting geography, except to note that many votes for Phil Squire (generally a more pro-business, anti-urban intensification and anti-big spending councillor than most London councillors) have come from the same UWO-linked interests who reside here and who otherwise vote Liberal in federal elections for the most part - profs, staff, public and private interests that are directly University-linked (students are less significant and a transitory vote). These are well-off residents for the most part, who may be inclined to oppose ugly urban developments in London and municipal tax hikes just as much as supporting federal Liberals who grease their public sector UWO-based or UWO-linked incomes, so it is possible to have many supporters of Libs who will not support municipal agenda of the same Libs, without a danger to Fragiskatos vote, so Squire vote may not be a good measurement for federal/ provincial elections after all - there is still a stable Lib vote. Other than that, Libs are winning the sign war, Green vote at a time of Green troubles is likelier to go Lib than the NDP (except for selected few ridings like on Vancouver Island), while Marc Emery will probably only attract NDP voters and is a 'no go' for Cons. Fragiscatos also seems to be personally popular. There is only a slight possibility of Cons upset, I expect Lib hold.
14/09/21 kingstonstudent
In another example of reality's stubborn refusal to align with my predictions, London North Centre continues to trend NDP, but arguably at a slower pace than London West despite the more suburban character of the latter. Contrary to popular belief, the real anchor for the Liberals in London North Centre isn't Western, where the NDP can make noise on occasion. It's the tony areas around Broughdale just outside campus that elected Phil Squire at the municipal level that have provided their margin. The extent to which the old 'London North' third of the riding is a pure Liberal-Conservative contest is what allows their competitiveness in the otherwise NDP-tilting east to guarantee them a winning coalition, even in the direst circumstances (the Liberals' 2018 provincial performance was an anomaly, but in 2011 with Glen Pearson they were far closer than the NDP to catching up to Susan Truppe). As in more than a few ridings, the question here is whether Dirka Prout can vacuum up enough Green voters to make it a race. The Conservatives' 2011 win was the result of an almost perfect vote split, and the absence of those conditions this time plus demographic changes in the riding and vote splitting of their own effectively rules them out. Marc Emery will obviously not win - however, his presence on the ballot could attract not only Conservative voters but more than a few NDP voters in the east of the sort who supported Paul Cheng for mayor at the same time as they supported people like Shawn Lewis for council or the Mathyssens at the federal level.
12/09/20 Thomas K
Lol so Marc Emery is running for the People's Party here; he's a very interesting character that's for sure... He will attract some voters but could be polarizing for other would-be PPC voters, but regardless I see this going to the Liberals this time around--the NDP could very well come within 10% though.
02/09/21 Physastr Master
I wouldn't be too surprised by a campus-dominated riding showing underwhelming liberal support. These environments are definitely small-l liberal but not big-L Liberal, and relative to other Liberal demographics, from experience I get the sense that young people are less partisan in nature and tend to pretty freely flip Liberal to NDP as the winds change direction. In the last election, that swing to the NDP started, leading to an underwhelming Liberal victory, and this time it seems to be continuing with a vengeance. Now don't get me wrong, there is definitely a tinge of educated-bougieness in this riding centered around Western that will tilt Liberal, but the swing of the young population to the NDP will make it close. It's worth noting that there's still a long way to go for the area around Western University to start going NDP, the Liberals dominated there last election while the NDP dominated the SE corner - i.e. most of downtown and the border with Fanshawe. That indicates to me that the Liberals are demographically vulnerable here, something that the provincial results seem to corroborate.
338 polling has the NDP back only 4 points, and with a positive trendline and a personal suspicion that things won't improve for Trudeau, I think this is definitely TCTC. If it voted today it would probably go Liberal, but I wouldn't bet on that lasting very long...
02/09/21 prognosticator15
Unlike very competitive London West, this riding has a clear Liberal advantage due to the fact the University has become huge creating a large web of oligarchic ideological and pecuniary interests, and essentially a focus of the riding, with many upper-class and middle class (small l) liberals and worse outnumbering small c conservatives in power and money. Its fairly typical representative, Liberal PoliSci Professor Fragiscatos, is a direct link between academic spending interests and wasteful federal government; he has acquired enough status and stable Liberal support that does not change with new political winds (if there are any this time compared to 2019 besides frustration with unnecessary election call, but is this enough for Cons and the NDP?). In spite of 2011 one-time narrow loss to Cons, this riding has become too hard for Cons to shift even against a less established candidate. That is not to say it is the same as totally urbanized Toronto, nor that it shifted the way Don Valley West did. There remains a strong network of old money, (mostly) old community and bigger space that tends to vote Cons, in particular in its northern section. It is true a good quarter of the riding can always be expected to provide a hard Cons vote, but last two elections have shown Cons simply have difficulties expanding their small University-linked vote and their 'soft' support in general. The party candidate, Stephen Gallant, comes from a rather traditional Cons support group of local banking and insurance industry linked to many small businesses, and I expect him to increase the vote over 2019 when the party first nominated an inexperienced student, then a little-known academic globalist who might as well have run as Liberal - such candidates do not sell well to the base. The NDP has at best only a small chance to take this even with some stable support in areas south of Oxford Street, and some soft and hard Western University supporters. It cannot be compared to 2018 provincial NDP at a time of Lib's low popularity provincially (I know I underestimated NDP then) - open seat in London West is a real NDP prospect this time. A wild card is a world-renowned pot activist Mark Emery running for PPC (which again shows it is more of a coalition of odd interests, and quite a change from conservative intellectual Salim Mansur last time), but I am not sure he changes anything here. More than anything, it is stability of Liberal vote here that makes me call this riding Liberal on probabilities, with a minor chance of 2011-like Cons upset and almost no chance for the NDP.
20/08/21 AGP
The NDP took this riding in 2018 provincially, and have had a dynamic MPP; this riding has moved in 338Canada projections from ‘Safe’ to ‘Leaning’ Liberal; don’t underestimate NDP strength here - especially if Singh has a polling bump like in 2019
29/07/21 Dr Bear
Historically the most Liberal-friendly riding in London. Don’t see that changing now. Expect an easy Liberal hold.
08/08/21 A.S.
A 42.7% share is surprisingly sluggish for a campus-demographic-ridden seat that had been a Harper-era Liberal last-bastion in SW Ontario. Yet Fragiskatos maintained his margin of victory...but that's because the CPC vote collapsed to the point where it was nearly overtaken by the NDP (and *was* overtaken on e-day votes alone--and was lower than in Fanshawe, of all things); and one might presume that with their candidate running again, the Dippers have now assumed ‘primary opposition force’ status. (Which accords with their presently holding it provincially. Incidentally, the NDP was *far* more poll-efficient; they won over 50 polls, while CPC--which tends to ‘shadow’ the Libs more often than not--only won 5. Meanwhile, in '15's much more strategically sorted and Con-incumbency-skewed election, the NDP was blanked while CPC won something like 25-30 polls.)

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